Watford vs Burnley Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Watford host Burnley at Vicarage Road on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 3pm UK, and the Championship table has them nearly at the bottom together. The hosts are 20th with 8 points, while Burnley are 24th and still searching for a first win after eight league games.

It is a match between two sides who have both found goals hard to come by and points even harder, which is why a single goal could decide it. Burnley's defensive numbers are the other talking point, and they are the main reason we lean towards the visitors scoring at least once.

How the teams arrive

Watford sit 20th after eight games, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats and a goal difference of minus 3 (7 scored, 10 conceded). Their last ten league results, oldest first, read W W D L D L L W L L, so they have lost four of the last five. The most recent was a 1-0 defeat at Bristol City, and before that came a 1-2 loss at home to Stoke. The one win in that spell was a 2-1 victory over Preston, and they also went down 1-0 at West Brom and 2-0 at Swansea.

The goals are the problem. Watford average 0.88 per game, the 4th fewest in the division, and their shots on target come in at 3.5 per game, the 6th fewest. They are tight at the back by comparison, conceding 1.25 a game, the 5th fewest. They win the 2nd fewest corners in the league, but are among the most carded sides, with 2.88 cards a game, the 2nd most, and 11.5 fouls, the 8th most.

Burnley are bottom with 4 points, no wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats, and a goal difference of minus 8 (9 scored, 17 conceded). Their last ten results, oldest first, run D D L D L D L D L D, so they have alternated draws and defeats with no victory in any of them. Their latest outing was a 1-1 draw with Derby, after a 3-1 loss at Swansea. Before that came draws at Wrexham and at home to Middlesbrough, either side of a 1-2 home defeat to Bristol City.

Burnley leak goals, conceding 2.13 a game, the 2nd most in the league, and every one of their eight matches has had both teams scoring, the highest rate in the division. They are also among the most carded sides, with 2.5 a game, the 4th most. Their position in the Championship standings tells you how little they have been able to bank so far.

Predicted lineups

Watford possible starting lineup:
Ravaglia; Keben, Kyprianou, Pollock; Coulibaly, Kayembe, Maamma; Bravo, Doumbia, Nabizada

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Coudert; Roberts, Ahmedhodzic, Alleyne, Pires; Laurent, Hatate; Bruun Larsen, Edwards, Amdouni

Players to watch

Mattie Pollock has made at least one tackle in all eight of Watford's games this season, averaging 1.4 a match, which is the longest streak on either side. Hector Kyprianou has committed a foul in six straight games and is 1.33 at midnite to make it seven.

Mamadou Doumbia has committed at least one foul in five straight, averaging 1.8 a game, and is 1.25 at midnite. Up front, Amin Nabizada has had a shot in four in a row.

For Burnley, Zeki Amdouni has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, with 1, 1, 4, 3 and 2 across that run, and he is 1.40 at bet365 to do it again. Connor Roberts has committed a foul in four of his last five and is 1.57 at midnite.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

We back Burnley, and the best price on them to win is 2.30 at midnite. Watford are 3.10 at bet365 and the draw is 3.60 at Ladbrokes.

Our prediction is Watford 1-1 Burnley, the likeliest single scoreline at around 13%, though we make Burnley slightly more likely to win overall. We have Watford on 1.24 goals and Burnley on 1.39, and both teams scoring is a 54% chance, backed by Burnley's record of every game so far having goals at both ends.

The player markets carry most of the interest. Amdouni has had a shot on target in five straight games, and Josh Laurent has made a tackle in four straight. Burnley's Largie Ramazani has had two or more shots in four straight games and is 1.33 at bet365. Our model also rates Anel Ahmedhodzic likelier to have a shot than his 1.80 price suggests.