Saturday's teatime slot (17:30 UK time) sends Tottenham to the Brentford ground where reputations traditionally go to die. The model makes the hosts narrow favourites - 41.3% to 30.2% - against a Spurs side that closed last season in its best form (WWDLW) and opens the new one under Roberto De Zerbi.
Kickoff is at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 22 August. All numbers below come from the live Statz match centre, where the projections re-run through to kickoff.
Brentford's expected XI is familiar: Thiago leading the line ahead of Damsgaard and Anthony, Kelleher in goal, only Milambo doubtful. The Spurs sheet is the fascinating one - De Zerbi is expected to start 3-5-2, with Kinský in goal, Van de Ven, Senesi and Van Hecke across the back and a Gallagher–Fernandes–Tonali engine room. Kulusevski, Xavi Simons and Odobert are out; Kudus is a doubt. The predicted-lineups desk notes De Zerbi may go to five at the back given the centre-back depth, with one of Tel or Maddison supporting Solanke.
Brentford predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Kelleher, Hickey, Collins, Ajer, Kayode, Sangaré, Jensen, Anthony, Damsgaard, O.Dango, Thiago.
Spurs predicted XI (3-5-2): Kinsky, Van de Ven, Senesi, Van Hecke, Udogie, Gallagher, Fernandes, Tonali, Pedro Porro, Solanke, Maddison.
Line-ups are predicted, not confirmed - the Statz team news page tracks every club's expected XI up to kickoff.
Spurs' closing WWDLW is the better recent line against Brentford's LWLDD, yet the model still leans home: 1.49 projected goals to 1.25, and a 28.8% clean-sheet chance to 22.6%. The new-manager unknowns cut both ways, and Brentford at home is where the model's team-strength numbers usually hold up.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Referee Michael Oliver's games run hot - 27.5 fouls and 4.25 yellows on average - and the streaks fit: Conor Gallagher and Mathys Tel have both committed a foul in five straight appearances. In front of goal, Richarlison has had two or more shots in five straight, and Damsgaard has had a shot in four of five.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Brentford at 2.40 with bet365 at the time of writing sits a shade under the model's 41.3%; Spurs at 2.80 is the market hedging the De Zerbi unknowns. The firmer model call is both teams to score at 55.2% (1.57 at the time of writing) - the second-strongest BTTS of the round - in a fixture with a card-happy referee and two foul streaks running. The Bet Builder above pays 2.66.
A new-era Spurs side in the weekend's trickiest away slot, against a Brentford team the model still trusts at home. Lean hosts on the result if you must - but both teams to score, with Oliver's whistle and the foul streaks in play, is where the numbers point hardest.