Nottingham Forest begin against Leeds United (Saturday, 15:00 UK time) as solid but unspectacular favourites: 44.8% to Leeds' 26.3% with the draw at 28.9%. The subplot is at the away end, where the Statz FPL model has quietly made two Leeds players - Anton Stach and Dominic Calvert-Lewin - among its most-recommended budget picks of the summer.
Kickoff is at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 22 August. All numbers below come from the live Statz match centre, where the projections re-run through to kickoff.
Forest's expected 3-4-3 is settled - Milenković, Diomande and Murillo behind a midfield of Schlager and Sangaré, Chris Wood and Igor Jesus sharing the attacking burden, only Savona missing. Leeds mirror the shape, with Stach and Tanaka central, Calvert-Lewin leading the line and Harry Wilson floating; Gudmundsson and Mateo Joseph are out.
Forest predicted XI (3-4-3): Sels, Milenković, Diomande, Murillo, N.Williams, Schlager, Sangaré, Aina, Gibbs-White, Wood, Igor Jesus.
Leeds predicted XI (3-4-3): Trafford, Muharemović, Rodon, Bijol, Justin, Ampadu, Tanaka, Bogle, Wilson, Stach, Calvert-Lewin.
Line-ups are predicted, not confirmed - the Statz team news page tracks every club's expected XI up to kickoff.
Neither closed last season convincingly - Forest WLDLD, Leeds LWDWL - and the model's projections reflect a mid-table meeting: 1.50 projected goals for Forest, 1.11 for Leeds, with Forest's 33.1% clean-sheet chance the sturdier defensive number.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The streak scan is unusually strong here. Calvert-Lewin has a shot on target in five straight appearances, Stach has a shot in five straight, Neco Williams has made two or more tackles in five straight, and Ethan Ampadu has committed a foul in five straight - four live runs that map directly onto same-game markets.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Forest at 2.30 with bet365 at the time of writing is a fair reflection of 44.8%, no more. The model marginally favours both teams to score (52%, at 1.70) and treats over 2.5 as a coin-flip at 51.6% - a game where the players' markets carry more conviction than the match markets. The Bet Builder above combines its four streaks at 2.32.
Forest at home, favourites without being convincing; Leeds with the two budget forwards the FPL model loves. The match markets are priced to the model's numbers already - the streak markets, for once, are where the edge in this fixture lives.