I will be honest with you about this one: there is not a great deal to argue with. Forest are solid favourites at home, the model has them at 44.8%, and the market has them at 2.30. Those two numbers are shaking hands.
When the model and the market agree this closely, the value is rarely in the result. It is in the details, and this fixture has a few worth your time.
Kickoff is 3:00pm UK. Numbers from the live Statz match centre.
Both sides line up 3-4-3, which should make for a tidy, compressed game. Forest have Milenković, Diomande and Murillo across the back with Chris Wood and Igor Jesus sharing the attacking load either side of Morgan Gibbs-White. Savona is the only absentee.
Leeds are without Gudmundsson and Mateo Joseph, but the front line that our FPL model has been shouting about all summer is intact: Dominic Calvert-Lewin through the middle, Anton Stach and Harry Wilson either side.
Forest predicted XI (3-4-3): Sels; Milenković, Diomande, Murillo; N.Williams, Schlager, Sangaré, Aina; Gibbs-White, Wood, Igor Jesus.
Leeds predicted XI (3-4-3): Trafford; Muharemović, Rodon, Bijol; Justin, Ampadu, Tanaka, Bogle; Wilson, Stach, Calvert-Lewin.
Forest closed WLDLD, Leeds LWDWL. Two mid-table sides arriving in mid-table form. The projections have Forest at 1.50 goals to 1.11, with a 33.1% clean sheet against 22.2%.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Here is where the fixture earns its place. Igor Jesus 3+ shots at 2.10 is the standout among the starters: a 51.4% projection, and three or more shots in three of his last five. Forest funnel a lot through him and Leeds concede chances in bunches.
Morgan Gibbs-White at 4.50 for 2+ shots on target is the alternative if you want a bigger price, and James Justin's 1+ shot on target at 5.50 is the one the model likes most on pure value, though a wing-back needing to hit the target is a lot to ask.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
No bet on the result. Forest at 2.30 for a 44.8% chance is precisely fair, and I am not in the business of backing fair prices.
Both teams to score at 1.70 is where the small edge sits: the model has it at 52%, and two 3-4-3 systems with attacking wing-backs tend to leave gaps at both ends rather than one.
The bet: Both teams to score at 1.70.
A quiet fixture in which the market has done its homework. Take the small edge on goals at both ends, have a look at Igor Jesus in the shots market, and save your energy for the games where there is an actual disagreement to exploit.