Newcastle vs Liverpool Predictions and Betting Tips - Premier League

Football rarely writes a script this neatly. Alexander Isak, the striker Newcastle turned into one of the most valuable players in Europe, walks back into St James' Park on Sunday afternoon wearing a Liverpool shirt. Whatever the reception is, it will not be muted.

Underneath the noise is the best fixture of the weekend and the model's strongest goals call of the round. Liverpool are favourites, but only just, and both defences look considerably less trustworthy than either club would like.

Kickoff is 4:30pm UK, live on Sky. Numbers from the live Statz match centre.

Lineups and Player News

Liverpool's front four is frightening and their treatment room is fuller: seven players are out, including Ekitiké, Bradley, Gomez, Leoni and Bajcetic. Wirtz, Szoboszlai and Gakpo line up behind Isak, with Van Dijk marshalling a back line that has Frimpong and Kerkez as its full-backs.

Newcastle's rebuilt side tells the story of their summer. Our season preview has them projected twelfth after sales reported beyond £240m, and the XI hands starts to Bamba, Ramsey and William Osula. Livramento is a doubt, Miley is out.

Newcastle predicted XI (4-3-3): Horníček; Burn, Botman, Thiaw, Hall; Bamba, J.Ramsey, Joelinton; Barnes, Elanga, Osula.

Liverpool predicted XI (4-2-3-1): A.Becker; Kerkez, Virgil, Araujo, Frimpong; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Gakpo, Wirtz, Szoboszlai; Isak.

Recent Form

Neither side arrives in form: Liverpool WLDLD, Newcastle LWDWL. The projections are close, 1.55 goals to 1.35 in Liverpool's favour, and the clean-sheet numbers are the interesting part - 25.9% and 21.2%, both weak, in a game that will be played at a hundred miles an hour.

Statz Team Projections

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Interesting Player Stats

The pick of the board is Dominik Szoboszlai to be carded at 4.75, a 25.9% chance in a fixture with this temperature. He is the Liverpool midfielder most likely to be chasing the game physically, and referees rarely get through this fixture without reaching for a pocket.

If you would rather back a shot than a card, William Osula's 2+ shots on target at 4.50 carries a 25.3% projection, and he has hit two in two of his last five. Isak, inevitably, is priced as though he will score, and there is no value left in it.

Match Leaders

Statz Bet Builder

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Betting Angles

Liverpool at 1.90 is a shade shorter than the model's 40.7% strictly earns. The market is paying for the front four and ignoring a bench that has been gutted by injuries.

The number that shouts is both teams to score at 58.4% (1.44 at the time of writing), the strongest BTTS call of the entire round. Two soft defensive projections, two sides who will attack each other, and a crowd that will demand Newcastle throw everything at the man who left.

Summary

The bet: Both teams to score at 1.44.

The game of the weekend, and the clearest goals game on the coupon. Liverpool are probably the better side, even with seven players missing, but this is not an afternoon for control.

Isak will get his moment, one way or another. So, I suspect, will Newcastle.

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  • Live stats & bet builder for this fixture

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