Manchester City open at home (Sunday, 14:00 UK time) against the side handed the hardest opening run in the league: Bournemouth, whose first three fixtures the Statz fixture ratings grade as the division's most brutal. The model makes City 64.9% winners with 2.29 projected goals - the second-most emphatic home call of the round.
Kickoff is at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 23 August. All numbers below come from the live Statz match centre, where the projections re-run through to kickoff.
City's expected XI shows the summer rebuild: Donnarumma in goal, Guéhi alongside Rúben Dias, and Semenyo joining Doku and Foden behind Erling Haaland. Rodrigo is out and Grealish a doubt. Bournemouth, already without three squad players plus the suspended Christie, hand Justin Kluivert and Evanilson the counter-attacking keys in a 4-2-3-1.
Man City predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma, Gvardiol, Guéhi, Rúben, Matheus N., Anderson, O'Reilly, Doku, Foden, Semenyo, Haaland.
B'mouth predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Petrović, Truffert, Hill, Silva, Sanchez, Cook, Scott, Tavernier, Kluivert, Rayan, Evanilson.
Line-ups are predicted, not confirmed - the Statz team news page tracks every club's expected XI up to kickoff.
City's closing WWWDL included the blip that cost them the title race long after it was decided; Bournemouth's DWWDD was genuinely decent. The model isn't moved: 2.29 projected goals for City against 1.01, and a clean-sheet gap of 36.4% to 10.2%.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The away streaks are the quirk here: Kluivert and Evanilson have both had a shot in five straight appearances - Bournemouth will get their moments on the break, whatever the scoreboard says. Haaland, the FPL model's top-projected player in the game, opens against the defence he has historically feasted on.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
City at 1.48 with bet365 at the time of writing is priced tighter than the model's 64.9% - the market remembers Community Shield rust and a World Cup summer. The model's strongest number in this fixture is over 2.5 goals at 64% (1.44 at the time of writing), the biggest overs call of the entire round, with both teams to score at 57.2% close behind. The Bet Builder above pays 3.15.
City by two, in a game with goals at both ends - the model's 64% over 2.5 is the loudest single number of the weekend's slate. Bournemouth's shot streaks say they'll swing back; their 10.2% clean-sheet projection says it won't be enough.