Spare a thought for Bournemouth. Of all twenty clubs, the fixture computer handed them the hardest opening run in the league - City away, Everton, then Newcastle - and this is the worst of the three.
The model's loudest single number of the entire opening round lives in this game: over 2.5 goals at 64%. City are projected for 2.29 goals, Bournemouth for a clean sheet chance of 10.2%, the lowest of any side this weekend. Erling Haaland starts a season against opponents the model expects to concede more than two.
Kickoff is 2:00pm UK on Sunday, live on Sky. Numbers from the live Statz match centre.
City's summer rebuild is on display: Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal for his home debut, Marc Guéhi alongside Rúben Dias, and Antoine Semenyo joining Doku and Foden behind Haaland. Rodrigo is out and Grealish is a doubt.
Bournemouth are missing three squad players plus the suspended Christie, which is not what you want before a trip to the Etihad. Justin Kluivert and Evanilson carry the counter-attack.
Man City predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Gvardiol, Guéhi, Rúben, Matheus N.; Anderson, O'Reilly; Doku, Foden, Semenyo; Haaland.
Bournemouth predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Petrović; Truffert, Hill, Silva, Sanchez; Cook, Scott; Tavernier, Kluivert, Rayan; Evanilson.
City closed WWWDL, Bournemouth DWWDD, which is a perfectly respectable line that will count for very little here. The projections are brutal: 2.29 goals to 1.01, clean sheets 36.4% against 10.2%.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The board for this fixture is thinner than you would expect, largely because the market has already priced City's stars into oblivion. Among the starters, Elliot Anderson 2+ shots at 2.10 is the one worth a look on a 49.4% projection - a summer signing the model rates as a top-ten player in the whole game, in a match City will spend camped in the opposition half.
Phil Foden to be carded at 10.00 appears on the value list but has not been booked in any of his last five, which tells you what the model thinks of it.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
City at 1.48 for a 64.9% chance is fair rather than generous, and short prices about teams with Community Shield rust and a World Cup summer behind them are not where I want to be.
The goals number is the bet. Over 2.5 at 64% (1.44 at the time of writing) is the model's strongest call anywhere on the round, and the logic is not complicated: City will score, Bournemouth's shot map says they will have their moments on the break, and neither of those things stops after the opening goal.
The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.44.
City by two is the likeliest outcome and the market knows it. The value is in the total, not the result.
Bournemouth will get a couple of chances on the counter, because everyone does at the Etihad, and City will keep going long after the game is won.