Brighton open at home to Aston Villa (Sunday, 14:00 UK time) carrying the model's respect - 44.1% to win against 27.4% - and a matchday squad missing three of their best players. Villa arrive with the strongest closing form of any away side this weekend: four wins and a draw in their last five (WDWWW).
Kickoff is at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 23 August. All numbers below come from the live Statz match centre, where the projections re-run through to kickoff.
Brighton's absentee list is the fixture's biggest variable: Baleba, Mitoma and Ferguson are all out, with Tzimas a doubt, so Yankuba Minteh and Georginio Rutter carry the attacking load either side of Jack Hinshelwood, with Pascal Groß - the FPL model's favourite £5.5m midfielder - running the game from deep. Villa are near full strength bar Onana: Garnacho, Buendía and McGinn support Tobi Abraham in a 4-2-3-1.
Brighton predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen, F.Kadıoğlu, Struijk, Dunk, Wieffer, Ayari, Groß, Minteh, Hinshelwood, Gomez, Georginio.
Villa predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Martinez, Maatsen, Mings, Pau, Cash, Kamara, Gomes, Garnacho, Buendía, McGinn, Abraham.
Line-ups are predicted, not confirmed - the Statz team news page tracks every club's expected XI up to kickoff.
Brighton's closing WLWLL was streaky; Villa's WDWWW was anything but. The projections still favour the hosts - 1.52 goals to 1.16, a 31.4% clean sheet to 21.8% - which is the model backing Brighton's underlying numbers over Villa's late-season surge.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Groß has had a shot in five straight appearances - the set-piece taker's floor that made him the projections' budget darling - while Rutter has made a tackle in five straight, unusual for a forward and exactly the profile the defensive-contribution era pays. For Villa, the physical edge: Michael Svoboda has committed a foul in five straight.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Brighton at 2.20 with bet365 at the time of writing is a fraction shorter than the model's 44.1% justifies, so the value conversation moves elsewhere: both teams to score at 53.6% (1.57) is the model's pick of this fixture's markets, with over 2.5 a dead coin-flip at 50.1%. The Bet Builder above prices three legs at 3.15.
The model trusts Brighton's numbers over Villa's form line, but three missing forwards is a real tax on that view. A narrow home lean, goals at both ends, and Groß quietly doing everything - the most Brighton opening day imaginable.