This is the fixture where the model and the eye test have a genuine disagreement, and I enjoy those.
The model likes Brighton at 44.1%, built on the underlying numbers they produced last season. The eye test says Aston Villa, who arrive with four wins and a draw in their last five, the best closing form of any away side this weekend. Both readings are defensible. Only one of them accounts for the fact that Brighton are missing three of their most important attacking players.
Kickoff is 2:00pm UK on Sunday, live on Sky. Numbers from the live Statz match centre.
Brighton's absentee list is the single biggest variable in this game: Baleba, Mitoma and Ferguson are all out, with Tzimas a doubt. That is their midfield destroyer and two of their front three. Yankuba Minteh and Georginio Rutter carry the load instead, with Pascal Groß running things from deep.
Villa are close to full strength with only Onana missing. Garnacho, BuendÃa and McGinn support Tobi Abraham, and Emiliano MartÃnez is behind them.
Brighton predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; F.Kadıoğlu, Struijk, Dunk, Wieffer; Ayari, Groß; Minteh, Hinshelwood, Gomez; Georginio.
Villa predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Maatsen, Mings, Pau, Cash; Kamara, Gomes; Garnacho, BuendÃa, McGinn; Abraham.
Brighton's closing WLWLL was streaky. Villa's WDWWW was not. The projections still favour the hosts at 1.52 goals to 1.16, with clean sheets at 31.4% and 21.8%, but those numbers were built when Brighton had a full squad.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The starters' board is unusually thin here, and the one name on it is a good one. Pascal Groß 1+ shot on target at 3.00 carries a 36.2% projection: he is the set-piece taker, the deep-lying creator and, with three of Brighton's attackers unavailable, increasingly the man who has to make things happen.
Worth noting that the raw value list for this game is topped by Ross Barkley and Luka Vuskovic, neither of whom is in his side's predicted XI. Always check the team sheet before the price.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Brighton at 2.20 is shorter than 44.1% strictly justifies once you account for the three missing players, so I will pass on the home win. Villa at better than 3.00 is the tempting one, and if you fancy the form book over the model, that is where the value is.
My preference is the goals. The model has both teams to score at 53.6% (1.57 at the time of writing), and a weakened Brighton attack still creates chances while Villa's away form has been built on scoring rather than shutting up shop.
The bet: Both teams to score at 1.57.
The model trusts Brighton's process, the form book trusts Villa's momentum, and three missing forwards sit awkwardly between the two arguments.
When I cannot separate two credible readings of a game, I look for the bet they both support. Goals at both ends is it.