The opening round closes at Craven Cottage on Monday night (20:00 UK time), where Chelsea - the model's third-place projection - visit a Fulham side it expects to finish comfortably mid-table. Chelsea win 45.6% of simulations to Fulham's 26.1%, with a 28.3% draw: favourites, but the London-derby kind rather than the formality kind.
Kickoff is at 20:00 UK time on Monday 24 August. All numbers below come from the live Statz match centre, where the projections re-run through to kickoff.
Chelsea's expected 3-4-3 has Cole Palmer floating behind João Pedro and Danny Welbeck, Caicedo and Enzo anchoring, and Reece James back at wing-back; Fofana is suspended, with Henderson and Emegha doubts. Fulham are without the banned Andersen but otherwise clean - Smith Rowe and Iwobi supply Josh King ahead of a Berge–Charles double pivot.
Fulham predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Leno, Robinson, J.Cuenca, Bassey, Tete, Berge, Charles, Iwobi, Smith Rowe, King, GarcÃa.
Chelsea predicted XI (3-4-3): Sánchez, James, Lacroix, Hato, Neto, Caicedo, Enzo, Palestra, Palmer, João Pedro, Welbeck.
Line-ups are predicted, not confirmed - the Statz team news page tracks every club's expected XI up to kickoff.
Chelsea's closing form last season was the worst of any of the model's projected top four - LDLWL - while Fulham's WLLDW at least ended on a win. The projections still favour the visitors clearly: 1.56 goals to 1.13, and a 32.3% clean-sheet chance to 21.1%.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The streak scan finds its value in the middle of the pitch: Shea Charles has had a shot in five straight appearances, Smith Rowe has made a tackle in five straight, and Jorge Cuenca has committed a foul in five straight. Palmer - restored as Chelsea's penalty-taking hub - has a shot on target in four of his last five.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Chelsea at 1.95 with bet365 at the time of writing tracks the model's 45.6% almost exactly - no argument either way. The lean is mildly to goals: both teams to score at 53.5% (1.57) and over 2.5 a coin-flip at 50.4%, in a fixture between a stylish new-manager project and a home side who make visiting favourites work. The Bet Builder above pays 3.98.
A Monday-night derby the model gives Chelsea without enthusiasm: right favourites, fair price, thin margin. The visitors' quality should tell late - but Fulham at home under lights, with Chelsea's shaky closing form on record, is the round's most honest coin-adjacent favourite - which is exactly why the goals markets read better than the match odds.