Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town Predictions and Betting Tips - Premier League

Crystal Palace host Ipswich Town at Selhurst Park on Saturday 12 September, kick-off 3pm UK, in the Premier League. Palace arrive off a win at Fulham that the underlying numbers do not recognise at all, and this fixture carries the Statz model's sharpest disagreement with the market anywhere on the Premier League card: Over 2.5 goals, projected at 59.4% against an implied 52.6%.

Every figure below comes from the Statz model and the live match centre, which refreshes through to kick-off. Three league games in, the rate stats are still working off a small sample.

How the teams arrive

Crystal Palace's last five reads W-W-L-L-W newest first: a 3-0 Carabao Cup win over Middlesbrough on Tuesday, a 3-2 win at Fulham, a 1-4 home defeat to Manchester City, a 2-0 loss at Everton, and a 1-0 Europa Conference League win over Rayo Vallecano to close last season. Three league games have brought 1.33 goals per game, rank 10 of 20, and 2.67 conceded, rank 19 of 20.

That win at Fulham deserves a second look. Fulham created 3.88 expected goals to Crystal Palace's 1.03 and lost 3-2. Across all 30 Premier League matches played this season, that is the widest gap between performance and result on record so far, and by some distance: the next largest is 1.20. Zoom out and the pattern holds. Palace have been out-created 8.03 expected goals to 3.33 across their three league games. The points are real. The performances behind them are not yet.

In fairness, the ledger has swung against them too. Palace out-created Everton 1.71 to 1.48 on the opening weekend and lost 2-0. Ipswich Town can tell the same story: they created 1.03 expected goals to Liverpool's 0.71 last week and lost 2-0 at home.

Ipswich Town's wider numbers are eerily close to their hosts. They have also scored 1.33 goals per league game and conceded 2.67, with both sides scoring in 67% of their matches and 67% going past 2.5 goals, identical figures for both teams. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W newest first: that 0-2 home defeat to Liverpool, a 5-2 loss at Manchester United, a 3-1 Carabao Cup win over Leicester City and a 2-1 home win over Sunderland on the opening weekend.

The expected line-ups have Crystal Palace in a 3-4-2-1, Dean Henderson behind Chris Richards, Axel Disasi and Jaydee Canvot, with Daichi Kamada and Yéremy Pino supporting Jørgen Strand Larsen. Ipswich Town are expected in a 4-2-3-1, Kjell Scherpen in goal, Saša Lukić and Exequiel Palacios screening a back four, and Emersonn leading the line. These are expected line-ups rather than confirmed team sheets, so check team news before kick-off.

Both clubs' current shape is ranked against the rest of the division on the Premier League power rankings.

What the model says

Statz makes Crystal Palace 53.9% to win. At 1.85 the market implies 51.0% once the margin is removed, so the model sits 2.9 points above the price. Ipswich Town at 3.90 imply 24.2% against a 22.8% projection, which puts the model fractionally against the visitors, and the draw splits the difference at 23.3% projected against 24.8% implied.

The goals market is the headline. Over 2.5 goals projects at 59.4% against 52.6% implied at 1.80, a gap of 6.8 points. That is the largest disagreement between the Statz model and the price in any Premier League match-result, both-teams-to-score or goals market this Saturday. Both teams to score tells the same story on a smaller scale: 58.8% projected against 54.7% implied at 1.70, a gap of 4.1.

The projections behind it are 1.90 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.17 for Ipswich Town, from 16.76 shots to 10.96 and 5.41 shots on target to 3.80. Two defences shipping 2.67 goals a game apiece is the simplest explanation for why the model wants goals here, and it is a cleaner read than the match result, where Palace's recent xG profile argues against the 53.9%.

Team Projections

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Betting angles

Referee Chris Kavanagh sets the tone for the contact markets: three games this season at 4.00 yellow cards and 19.67 fouls per match. Crystal Palace are projected for 11.19 fouls and Ipswich Town 10.97, so neither side has a monopoly on the whistle.

Daichi Kamada to be fouled 1+ time was 1.62 at the time of writing against a 73.0% model projection, with 1.31 fouls drawn per game projected and the line cleared in four of his last five, assuming he starts. On the Ipswich Town side, Issahaku Fatawu to be fouled 2+ times was 2.75 against a 46.5% projection, having drawn 2, 0, 3, 2 and 2 fouls in his last five, assuming he starts.

At the other end of the same market, Jacob Greaves to commit 1+ foul was 1.83 against a 60.5% projection, cleared in four of his last five, assuming he starts. Our player fouls and cards hub covers those markets in more depth, the full numbers for this game are on the head-to-head page, the weekend board is on the acca sheet, and Saturday's strongest selections land in the daily acca.

Season numbers for every player named here are on the Premier League player stats page.

Prediction

The model leans Crystal Palace, but the more confident reading is goals. Crystal Palace 2-1 Ipswich Town fits a 1.90 to 1.17 projection with Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both above evens. That is the model's call rather than a promise, and the caveat cuts towards the hosts: if Palace keep being out-created the way they were at Fulham, a 53.9% win projection will not survive many more weeks.

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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at the time of writing.