Liverpool vs Fulham Predictions and Betting Tips - Premier League

Liverpool host Fulham at Anfield on Saturday 12 September, 15:00 UK. On the table it reads seventh against nineteenth, five points against none, and it looks like one of the weekend's more straightforward afternoons.

The underlying numbers make it a closer fixture than that, and Fulham are the reason. No side in the Premier League has a wider gap between the points they hold and the points their chances were worth. The full stat pack is on our match centre.

How the teams arrive

Liverpool have three league games in the book: 2-2 at Newcastle United, 2-2 at home to Nottingham Forest, then a 2-0 win at Ipswich Town. In midweek they beat Atlético Madrid 2-1 at Anfield in the Champions League. Two goals per game is fifth in the division and six shots on target per game is third, though 1.33 goals conceded per game is a mid-table ninth.

Fulham have lost all three: 2-3 at home to Chelsea, 1-0 at Sunderland, 2-3 at home to Crystal Palace. They did win 3-0 against AFC Wimbledon in the Carabao Cup. Their 2.33 goals conceded per game is 17th of 20 and they are yet to keep a clean sheet.

That is the results version. Our Premier League xG table tells a different one: Fulham have generated 6.0 expected goals and conceded 4.3 across those three defeats, an expected-points total of 4.6 against the zero they have actually banked. That 4.6 gap is the largest in the division in either direction. Our Gameweek 3 xG review put their expected goals in the Crystal Palace defeat alone at 3.89, the biggest single-game figure of the round. Check team news before kick-off.

What the model says

The model makes Liverpool 62.2% to win. The 1.42 price implies 66.2%, so the market is four points stronger on the hosts than we are. That is the largest single disagreement on this fixture and it runs against the favourite. Fulham at 6.25 is the side the model prefers, 16.9% against an implied 15.0%, with the draw holding the remaining 20.9%.

Goals repeat the pattern. Over 2.5 is projected at 61.5% against a price implying 65.6%, which makes under 2.5 at 2.75 the better-priced side of that market by 4.1 points, the biggest positive number on the fixture. Both teams to score sits at 56.9% against an implied 57.6%, effectively a wash. The projections read Liverpool 2.14 goals from 17.92 shots and 5.98 on target, Fulham 1.04 from 10.68 shots and 3.45 on target.

Team Projections

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Betting angles

The props below came from the feed this morning and are built on predicted line-ups, so confirm the team sheet first.

Alexander Isak 1+ shot on target is 1.40 with the model at 71.6%, and he has hit that line in four of his last five, assuming he starts. Dominik Szoboszlai 2+ shots is 1.53 against a 66.9% projection, with a 2.3-shot projection and four hits in five behind it, assuming he starts.

The wider model-versus-price gaps are at the back. Ronald Araujo 1+ shot is 1.62 against a 65.3% projection, and Virgil van Dijk 1+ shot is 1.73 against 60.9%, both assuming they start. On the Fulham side, Calvin Bassey is 1.67 to commit at least one foul with the model at 60.1%.

One piece of discipline context worth carrying: Liverpool are averaging 3.33 cards per game, the most in the Premier League, and 13.67 fouls, fifth-most. Referee Thomas Bramall has averaged 3.5 yellows and 25.5 fouls across two games this season. More lines on the shots on target board. Prices are the model's at the time of writing.

Statz Bet Builder

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Prediction

Liverpool at 62.2%, and 2.14 projected goals against Fulham's 1.04, gives Liverpool 2-1 Fulham. The model's read is that Liverpool win it, and that the price makes them shorter than the numbers justify.

Note the split in that, because it matters. The scoreline call lands on the over side of 2.5 goals while the model rates under 2.5 as the better-priced side of the market. Those answer different questions: one is the single most likely outcome, the other is where the price is generous. This is the model's lean, not a promise. Saturday's wider card is on the daily acca.

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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at the time of writing.