The players most likely to test the keeper in today's matches, by the Statz projections model - one player per fixture, built into ready-made doubles and trebles, priced across our bookmakers with a one-tap betslip on the combos the books can take.
Every pick starts in the Statz projections model, which prices every player in a covered fixture for shots on target from their season-long and recent record, their role in the attack, and the match the model expects. One player per fixture qualifies - the highest-projection candidate in each game - and the day's strongest combine into a double and, on deeper slates, a treble.
Each combo is priced as a single bet on the one bookmaker that covers every leg, with a betslip link that loads all the legs in one tap. Prices are correct at the time of build and move through the day - the price at the bookmaker is the one that counts.
These are tool output, not a tipping service: treat them as data-backed starting points, check the team news before kick-off, and only ever stake what you are comfortable losing.
Total shots measures volume; shots on target measures volume times accuracy, and that second factor makes it a rarer, swingier event. A player averaging three shots a game with poor accuracy can go weeks without clearing a 2+ SOT line, while a clinical forward on two attempts a game clears it more often than the raw volume suggests.
That is why the model treats the two markets separately: the SOT projection weighs where a player shoots from and how often his attempts hit the target, not just how many he takes. Penalty takers get a quiet boost - a penalty is close to a guaranteed shot on target - and long-range speculators get marked down.
The 1+ SOT line is the classic banker leg: for a first-choice forward it lands most weeks and prices accordingly short. It earns its place inside a bigger builder, not on its own ticket.
The 2+ SOT line is the bettable one. Only genuinely busy, accurate attackers clear it regularly, prices run from evens into the 3s and 4s, and the market's pricing tracks reputation more loosely than on the 1+ line. Our hero combo backs 2+ lines for exactly that reason.
Under bet365's Sub On Play On and the equivalent rules at several other books, a shots on target line does not die when the player is substituted - the replacement's efforts continue the same line. That trims early-withdrawal risk, and it makes forwards whose usual replacement is another shooter better legs than their minutes alone suggest.
Not every bookmaker runs the rule, and settlement differs when a player never comes on - check your book's terms, and read our Super Sub explainer for the full mechanics.
Every leg above can be checked against the same numbers we used to pick it. Our shots on target guide covers the market in depth, the player pages carry per-match SOT logs and per-90 rates, and the Bet Builder tool prices any player in a covered fixture against the model - rebuild today's double with your own legs from the same data.
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Ready-made shots on target combos for today's covered matches: the highest-projected player in each fixture by the Statz model, combined into a double and treble at both the 2+ and safer 1+ lines, each priced as a single bet with a one-tap betslip where the bookmaker supports it.
An attempt that would enter the goal without a save or a defender's intervention on the line - saved shots and goals count, blocked shots and efforts off the woodwork generally do not. Definitions vary slightly by bookmaker, so check the market rules where you bet.
Projection first: the model prices every player in a covered fixture for shots on target from their per-game record, accuracy, minutes, role and opponent. One player per fixture qualifies, fixtures rank against each other, and the top of the ranking makes the day's combos. Picks are lineup-aware.
At bookmakers running Super Sub style rules - bet365's Sub On Play On among them - the replacement's shots on target continue the line, so a substitution does not automatically kill the leg. Settlement varies when a player takes no part at all; check the terms at your book.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Projections are probabilities, not promises; most multis lose. Nothing here is advice to bet.