Premier League xG Review: Fulham's 3.89 in Defeat and What Gameweek 3's Numbers Really Said

Every Monday the results table lies a little, and expected goals says by how much. Eight of Gameweek 3's ten games have full xG in our data as of Monday afternoon (the two Sunday London games land later in the import cycle - we will cover them next week), and the eight tell some strong stories. All numbers are from the Statz match data, at the time of writing; the full running table lives on our Premier League xG table.

The result the numbers refuse to believe: Fulham 2-3 Crystal Palace

Fulham against Crystal Palace produced the widest gap between performance and result this season has seen: Fulham 3.89 xG, Palace 1.04 - and Palace won 3-2. A team creating nearly four goals of chances loses that game roughly once in a dozen tries. None of that pays out anything for Fulham, but it is exactly the kind of defeat that leaves a side underpriced the following week, and exactly the kind of win that flatters the team that got it. The model will not be moving much on either.

Sunderland travelled well, whatever the scoreline said

Our Saturday acca backed Brentford at home to Sunderland and it finished 1-1 - and the xG says the pick, not just the result, was wrong: Sunderland 2.40, Brentford 1.26 at the Gtech. The promoted side created the better chances away from home for the second time already this season. Their prices still carry a promoted-club premium; their numbers increasingly do not justify it.

Same flavour at St James' Park, where Bournemouth's 1.36 to Newcastle United's 0.76 made the 2-2 a fair result at worst for the visitors.

Villa out-created Hull, but the season says otherwise

Hull City 0-0 Aston Villa looked like the season's strangest split on the night: Villa sit in the relegation places and they out-created a Hull side who started the day third, 1.34 to 0.71, without scoring.

Correction, added 11 September: we originally wrote that Villa's underlying numbers keep beating their table. Checked across the full season rather than this one game, that is wrong. Aston Villa have created 2.1 expected goals and conceded 5.1 in three league games - an xG difference of minus 3.1, third worst in the division, and 0.69 xG per game is the lowest figure of all twenty clubs. One good night against Hull City does not generalise, and we should not have said it did. The side the description actually fits is Fulham: nineteenth, no points, 6.0 xG created to 4.3 conceded, and the largest gap between points and expected points in the Premier League.

Liverpool won a game their numbers lost

Honesty cuts both ways. This column's standing position has been that Liverpool's underlying numbers were better than their results - and on Friday they won 2-0 at Ipswich while producing just 0.71 xG to the home side's 1.03. That is the reverse of the story we have been telling, and one game does not settle the argument either way. What it does mean: do not chase Liverpool's prices down on the back of two wins. The numbers have not turned yet; only the results have.

The rest of the eight

• Brighton 1-1 Leeds - 2.39 to 2.04, the only game of the round in which both sides cleared 2.00 expected goals. (We first called it the most open game of the round; on combined xG that title belongs to Fulham against Crystal Palace at 4.91, and this was 4.43.) Both sets of attacking players deserve a look in the props markets while these two keep trading chances.
• Man City 1-0 Coventry - 1.88 to 0.75. Controlled, never wild; a 1-0 that was about finishing, not fragility.
• Forest 0-0 Spurs - 0.72 to 1.16. Spurs shaded a game with little in it.

Everton 2-2 Manchester United and Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea have since imported: 1.07 to 0.84 and 2.27 to 0.50 respectively. Provider corrections also nudged several figures above after publication, which is why this column stamps its numbers to the day it ran.

What to take into Gameweek 4

Three positions, all model-flavoured rather than promises: Fulham are the buy - the market punishes the scoreline, the numbers say the performance was elite. Sunderland away are no longer a fade - twice now the travelling xG has been genuinely good. And treat Palace's win and Liverpool's numbers with the same scepticism - both results outran their chances. The projections behind all of this feed the Daily Acca and Bet Builder Tips every morning.

xG figures are from the Statz match data import and can receive small provider corrections after publication. 18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org.