Chelsea host AFC Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 3pm UK, and goals at both ends look close to a given. Chelsea have conceded more per game than any side in the Premier League, and Bournemouth have gone five league games without a win.
The two sides have the joint-highest both-teams-to-score rate in the division, at 80% each. Chelsea sit 10th on 7 points, while the visitors are 17th on 3.
Chelsea are 10th after five games, with two wins, a draw and two defeats. Their attack is not the issue: they score the 3rd most goals per game in the league at 2.0, and every one of their home games has gone over 2.5 goals. They also create plenty, with the 4th most shots on target and the 3rd most corners.
The problem is at the back. Chelsea concede 2.4 a game, the most in the division, and have not kept a clean sheet all season. The latest example was an 0-3 defeat at Brentford on 18 September, which followed a 2-2 draw with Hull at home. Before that came a 6-3 Carabao Cup win over Leeds and a 2-1 loss at Arsenal. The season opened with a 4-3 win over Brighton. Few of their games have been quiet.
AFC Bournemouth are 17th with three draws and two defeats from five league games. Newest first, their last five in all competitions read a 0-1 loss to Liverpool on 20 September, a 2-1 Europa League win away to Sociedad, a 2-2 draw with Brentford, a 4-0 Carabao Cup win over Lincoln and a 2-2 draw at Newcastle.
Their numbers are steadier than the table suggests. They score 1.2 a game and concede 1.6, and have the 4th most shots on target in the league. They are also a combative side: only one team collects more cards per game, at 2.8, and they commit the 8th most fouls, which you can check on their fouls board. Like Chelsea, they have yet to keep a clean sheet.
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
MartÃnez; Fofana, Lacroix, Colwill, James; Caicedo, ChavarrÃa; Neto, Palmer, Rogers; Welbeck
AFC Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Petrovic; Smith, Silva, Hill, Truffert; Adams, Cook; Rayan, Christie, Tavernier; Evanilson
Cole Palmer has had two or more shots in each of Chelsea's five league games, averaging 3.4 a game, and he is 1.18 at bet365 to make it six. Morgan Rogers has the same run at 3.0 a game and is 1.20.
Pedro Neto has had a shot in five straight and drawn a foul-count of one or more in four. His 2+ fouls line is 3.25 and our model rates him likelier than that price suggests.
For Bournemouth, Adrien Truffert has made two or more tackles in all five games, averaging 3.2, and is 1.33 at bet365. Adam Smith has committed a foul in five straight at 1.40, and Marcus Tavernier has made a tackle in each of five, at 1.22.
We back Chelsea to win, and the best price is 1.67 at midnite. The draw is 4.33 at bet365 and Bournemouth are 4.75 at boylesports. Our model has Chelsea at 52%, the draw at 23% and the visitors at 26%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 1.67 (midnite) | 52% |
| Draw | 4.33 (bet365) | 23% |
| Bournemouth win | 4.75 (boylesports) | 26% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (ladbrokes) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 64% |
We project 1.97 goals for Chelsea and 1.34 for Bournemouth, which points to an open game: both sides score in 64% of our simulations and the match goes over 2.5 in the same share. Chelsea are also projected 17 shots to Bournemouth's 12.
Our prediction is Chelsea 1-1 AFC Bournemouth. 1-1 is the likeliest single score, though we make Chelsea clearly more likely to win, with 2-1 close behind at 9%. A draw is in play, but the home side's attack and Bournemouth's own defensive record both point to goals.
For the player markets, Palmer and Rogers both arrive on five-game shot runs, and a four-leg combination of Tavernier 1+ tackles, Truffert 2+ tackles, Smith 1+ fouls and Reece James 1+ shots comes to 2.95 at bet365. James has had a shot in four of his last five. The model also expects Chelsea to take more shots on target than Bournemouth, 5.5 to 4.4.