Fiorentina host Atalanta at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 19:45 UK. Fiorentina are 18th in Serie A with 4 points from 8 games, one win and six defeats. Atalanta are 11th on 10. We project 1.49 goals for each side and make them level at 37% to win.
Fiorentina have scored nine and conceded 19 in eight league games, while Atalanta have scored 14 and conceded 15. Atalanta drew 4-4 with Frosinone last time out.
Fiorentina have lost their last three league games. The latest was a 2-1 loss at Inter on 25 October, after a 3-1 home defeat to Como and a 2-1 loss at Genoa. The last point they took came in a 1-1 draw with Napoli on 20 September, and the last win was 3-0 over Pisa in the Coppa Italia.
They score 1.13 goals a game, the 8th fewest in the division, and concede 2.38, the 2nd most. Both teams have scored in 75% of their games, the 4th highest rate, and 88% have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest in the league. They also pick up the 3rd most cards, at 2.13 a game, and their foul count of 11.13 a game is the 8th most.
Atalanta have won two of their last five games in all competitions. They drew 4-4 with Frosinone on 25 October, lost 2-0 at Ajax in the Europa Conference League three days earlier, and lost 3-2 at AC Milan before that. Before the Milan game they beat Pafos 3-1 and Venezia 3-1.
They score 1.75 a game, the 8th most, and concede 1.88, the 7th most. Both teams have scored in 75% of their league games, and 75% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 6th highest rate. They have kept a clean sheet in only 13% of league games, and Fiorentina have not kept one at all.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
De Gea; Jiménez, Drăgușin, Viery, Valdepeñas; Ndour, Fagioli, Oulaï; Mastantuono, Beto, Njie
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Zappacosta, Kristensen, Obrić, Bernasconi; Éderson, Gaetano, Elmas; De Ketelaere, Rowe; Krstović
Franco Mastantuono has had two or more shots in seven straight games, averaging four a game over that run, and he has made two or more tackles in each of his last three league games. He is 1.14 at bet365 for two or more shots.
Cher Ndour has made at least one tackle in eight straight league games and averages 1.4. Alongside him, Christ Inao Oulaï has made a tackle in each of his last four, 1.8 a game.
For Atalanta, Éderson has had a shot in six straight games and is 1.44 at Ladbrokes to make it seven, while Charles De Ketelaere has had a shot in four in a row at 2.3 a game.
Nikola Krstović has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, 11 in all, and is 1.33 at bet365 for one or more. Back with Fiorentina, Mastantuono is 1.20 at bet365 to make a tackle, which he has done in each of his last five games, while Oulaï has fouled in each of his last five and is 1.20 at Midnite to do it again.
We have Fiorentina and Atalanta level at 37% each to win, with the draw on 26%. The best prices are 2.20 on Fiorentina with bet365, 3.80 on the draw with Coral and 3.10 on Atalanta with bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 2.20 (bet365) | 37% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Coral) | 26% |
| Atalanta win | 3.10 (bet365) | 37% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (Midnite) | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 57% |
We give both teams to score a 61% chance, and 75% of each side's league games have ended with both on the scoresheet.
Our prediction is Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta. It is the likeliest single score at 12%, with the draw at 26% and each side at 37% to win. 2-1 and 1-2 both sit behind at 8%.