Venezia, 20th of 20 with 3 points from 8 games, host Inter, 2nd on 22 points, at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 17:30 UK. Inter have scored 23 goals in eight Serie A games and Venezia have conceded 17.
Venezia have won once all season and have lost seven of their eight. The win came at home, 1-0 against Napoli on 17 October, and it was followed by a 1-0 defeat at Genoa on Sunday. Before Napoli came a 3-1 loss at Atalanta, and earlier in the autumn they went down 0-2 to Lazio and 2-4 to Fiorentina at home.
At the back they concede 2.13 goals a game, the 5th most in the league, and they score 0.75, the 3rd fewest. They are also the 2nd most carded side in Serie A at 2.5 a game.
Inter have won seven and drawn one of their eight, with no league defeats. They are scoring 2.88 goals a game, the most in Serie A, and they put up 7.75 shots on target a game, also the most in the division. 88% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in the league, and 75% have seen both sides score, the 4th highest.
In their last five, Inter beat Fiorentina 2-1 on Sunday and Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 in the Champions League, won 3-1 at Bologna, lost 3-4 at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League and beat Parma 3-0. They commit 8.75 fouls a game, the 3rd fewest in Serie A.
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Stanković; Moreno, Schingtienne, Halhal; Mazzocchi, Sohm, Pérez, Hainaut, Helgason; Yeboah, Adams
Inter possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Bisseck, Bastoni, Spence; Carlos Augusto, Zieliński, Sučić, Stanković, Dimarco; Esposito, Bonny
John Yeboah has had two or more shots in each of Venezia's eight league games, averaging three a game, and is 1.33 at bet365 to keep it going. Akor Adams has the same eight-game run at 3.6 shots a game, also 1.33 at bet365.
Piotr Zieliński has had a shot in seven straight league games, averaging 1.7, and is 1.18 at bet365. Pio Esposito has put a shot on target in each of his last five and is 1.25 at bet365 to do so again.
Kike Pérez has committed two or more fouls in five straight league games, averaging 2.2, and is 2.00 at Ladbrokes to keep it going. He has also made a tackle in seven in a row.
We back Inter, and the best price on an away win is 1.36 at bet365. Venezia are 8.00 and the draw is 5.50, both at bet365, while over 1.5 goals is 1.11 and both teams to score is 1.62, also at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia win | 8.00 (bet365) | 10% |
| Draw | 5.50 (bet365) | 15% |
| Inter win | 1.36 (bet365) | 75% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 76% |
Our model has Inter scoring 2.92 goals to Venezia's 1.04, and the likeliest scoreline is 1-2. We give Inter a 35% chance of a clean sheet and rate both teams scoring at 62%. We predict Venezia 1-2 Inter, with a 76% chance of three or more goals.
In the player markets, Alessandro Bastoni has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games and is 1.44 at Ladbrokes.