Atlético Mineiro host Cruzeiro at Arena MRV on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 22:30 UK, in a Belo Horizonte derby in the Campeonato Brasileiro. Cruzeiro are 3rd on 54 points, Atlético 6th on 50, both having played 32. Cruzeiro have scored more (51 against 44) and Atlético have conceded fewer (38 against 46).
We make Atlético the narrow favourites at 43%, with Cruzeiro on 30% and the draw on 27%.
Atlético Mineiro have won three of their last five games in all competitions. They beat Coritiba 1-0 on 17 October, but then lost 2-0 away to Montevideo City Torque in the Copa Sudamericana on 21 October and went down 3-2 at Flamengo on Monday. Before that they had beaten Santos 2-1 and Montevideo City Torque 3-0 at home in the Copa Sudamericana on 14 October. Their league record is 14 wins, 8 draws and 10 defeats, with 44 scored and 38 conceded.
Atlético concede 1.19 a game, the 4th fewest in the division, and they keep clean sheets in 25% of matches, the 6th highest rate. They also commit the 3rd fewest fouls and pick up the fewest cards in the league.
Cruzeiro have won four of their last five in the league, including 1-0 against Remo last Friday and a 4-2 win at Grêmio the weekend before. The only blemish was a 4-2 defeat at Bragantino on 13 October. They beat São Paulo 2-0 before that.
Their attack scores 1.59 a game, the 3rd most in the league, and both teams have scored in 69% of their matches, the 3rd highest rate. Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of their games, the highest in the division. They also have the 5th most shots on target and commit the 3rd most fouls.
Atlético Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Gabriel Delfim; Natanael, Lyanco, Vitão, Renan Lodi; Alan Franco, Maycon; Alan Minda, Victor Hugo, Bernard; Reinier
Cruzeiro possible starting lineup:
Otávio Costa; William, Fabrício Bruno, Jonathan Jesus, Lucas Villalba; Lucas Romero, Zé Lucas; Gerson, Matheus Pereira, Wesley; Kaio Jorge
Matheus Pereira has had at least one shot in 10 straight games for Cruzeiro, averaging 2.9 a game, and has committed a foul in six in a row. The 1+ fouls price is 1.22 at Midnite.
Kaio Jorge leads the line for the visitors and has had a shot in eight straight games, averaging 2.8. He has a shot on target in four of his last five, and the 1+ shots on target price is 1.44 at Ladbrokes.
Bernard has had a shot in five straight games and a shot on target in four, and he is 2.63 at bet365 to make it five on target. Alongside him, Victor Hugo also has a shot on target in four straight games and is 2.00 at bet365.
Fabrício Bruno has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, and the 1+ fouls price is 1.44 at Midnite.
We make Atlético Mineiro the narrow favourites at 43%, and the best price on them is 2.50 with Ladbrokes. Cruzeiro are 2.70 at bet365 and the draw is 3.50 at Ladbrokes. Both teams to score is 1.62 at Midnite and over 2.5 goals is 1.80 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro win | 2.50 (Ladbrokes) | 43% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Cruzeiro win | 2.70 (bet365) | 30% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (Midnite) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 55% |
We expect 1.60 goals from Atlético and 1.29 from Cruzeiro. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Atlético the likelier winners at 43%, against 30% for Cruzeiro. After that come 2-1 to the hosts at 9% and 1-0 at 8%.
We put both teams scoring at 59% and more than two goals at 55%. Cruzeiro's games have gone over 2.5 goals more often than any other side's in the league, at 66%.