The 2026 NBA Playoffs Conference Semifinals get underway on Monday as the Philadelphia 76ers travel to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Knicks in Game 1. Tip-off is set for Monday night, May 4. This Eastern Conference showdown pits a battle-tested Knicks team that swept the Atlanta Hawks against a 76ers squad that upset the Boston Celtics in four games.
Odds and Lines
The Knicks enter as home favourites. Moneyline: New York Knicks -275 (1.36) | Philadelphia 76ers +215 (3.15). The spread has New York at -7.5 (-1.93 both sides). The game total is set at 213 points (over/under both at 1.91). Odds via Ballybet.
Build your own parlay for this game using the Statz Bet Builder Tool.
Series Context
This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Both teams arrive fresh – neither has played in this series. New York swept Atlanta three games in hand (W 114-98, W 126-97, W 140-89). Philadelphia knocked out Boston in five, winning three on the bounce (W 96-128, W 113-97, W 106-93, W 109-100) after dropping Game 1. Both series wins show different paths: NYK by force, PHI with momentum.
Team Form (Last 5)
New York Knicks: W vs ATL (114-98), W vs ATL (126-97), W vs ATL (140-89), L vs ATL (Game 1), L today (Game 1 of this series – result pending). Record this postseason: dominant vs Atlanta, 55 wins on the season (64% win rate, 86 games).
Philadelphia 76ers: L vs BOS (96-128), W vs BOS (113-97), W vs BOS (106-93), W vs BOS (109-100), now entering this series. Season record: 47-38 (55.3%), 85 games played.
Team Stats Comparison
The Knicks have been the more efficient team across the season. NYK average 116.3 ppg on 47.7% FG and 37.2% from three, allowing 110 ppg – a +6.3 average margin. PHI score 115 ppg on 46.1% FG and 34.8% from three, with a negative point differential at -0.7 per game. NYK average more assists (27.2 vs 24.3), more three-pointers made (14.1 vs 12.2), and hold a clear rebounding edge (45.8 vs 43.5).
Pace and Shooting Analysis
Both teams are rated Slow in pace. NYK pace value: 81.8. PHI pace value: 90.7 – giving Philadelphia a slight pace advantage. In the shooting splits, Philadelphia leads in FG% (47.6% vs 44.8%), three-point percentage (37.2% vs 36.3%), while the Knicks hold the free-throw edge (81.6% vs 76.2%). The model gives Philadelphia a marginal win probability edge at 51.5% vs NYK 48.5%.
Key Player Projections
New York Knicks:
- Jalen Brunson: 25.9 pts | 7.2 ast | 2.3 reb projected
- OG Anunoby: 19.7 pts | 7.4 reb | 1.4 ast projected
- Karl-Anthony Towns: 19.1 pts | 11.3 reb | 6.2 ast projected
- Josh Hart: 9.9 pts | 7.6 reb | 3.8 ast projected
- Mikal Bridges: 9.8 pts | 2.0 reb | 2.1 ast projected
Philadelphia 76ers:
- Joel Embiid: 28.1 pts | 9.1 reb | 5.2 ast projected
- Tyrese Maxey: 27.2 pts | 4.5 reb | 5.8 ast projected
- Paul George: 17.0 pts | 4.3 reb | 3.0 ast projected
- VJ Edgecombe: 15.0 pts | 7.5 reb | 3.8 ast projected
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: 11.0 pts | 5.7 reb | 1.1 ast projected
Active Prop Streaks
Several players arrive with active streaks heading into Game 1:
- Andre Drummond (PHI) – Points over 2.5: 8-game over streak, averaging 9.2 pts in last 5 (14, 12, 10, 5, 5). FanDuel line 2.5 at 2.04.
- VJ Edgecombe (PHI) – Rebounds over 5.5: 6-game over streak, last five: 11, 7, 9, 6, 8. Average 7.8 per game.
- VJ Edgecombe (PHI) – Pts+Reb+Ast over 21.5: 6-game over streak.
- Josh Hart (NYK) – Blocks under 0.5: 12-game under streak (0 blocks in last 5).
- Jalen Brunson (NYK) – Blocks under 0.5: 10-game under streak (0 blocks in last 5).
- Kelly Oubre Jr. (PHI) – Assists under 1.5: 8-game under streak.
Milestone Streaks
- VJ Edgecombe (PHI) – Steals 1+: 7-game streak, averaging 1.7 steals. DraftKings line at 1.38.
- Kelly Oubre Jr. (PHI) – Steals 1+: 6-game streak, averaging 2.2 steals per game (last 5: 1, 3, 4, 3, 1). DraftKings 1.40.
- Joel Embiid (PHI) – Blocks 1+: 5-game streak, averaging 2.2 blocks (last 5: 4, 3, 1, 2, 1). DraftKings 1.34.
Top Hit Rates
- Andre Drummond (PHI) – Rebounds 2+: 100% L5, 100% L10, 95.3% season
- VJ Edgecombe (PHI) – Pts+Ast 15+: 100% L5, 90% L10, 75% season
- Joel Embiid (PHI) – Blocks 1+: 100% L5, 80% L10, 78.9% season
- Kelly Oubre Jr. (PHI) – Steals 1+: 100% L5, 80% L10, 70.6% season
Injuries
No active injury reports for either team heading into this game.
Stan’s Take
The numbers tell two stories. NYK’s season-long efficiency and home advantage make them the favourite – but PHI’s pace edge and Embiid-Maxey firepower (56 combined projected points) means this is far from a walkover. The model calls it 51.5% PHI – essentially a coin flip. The real edges are in the props: VJ Edgecombe is on a tear and PHI’s steals crew (Edgecombe, Oubre) has been consistent all series. Watch the Drummond points line – 8-game over streak at minimal risk.