Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks Predictions – NBA Playoff Preview

The 2026 NBA Playoffs Conference Semifinals get underway on Monday as the Philadelphia 76ers travel to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Knicks in Game 1. Tip-off is set for Monday night, May 4. This Eastern Conference showdown pits a battle-tested Knicks team that swept the Atlanta Hawks against a 76ers squad that upset the Boston Celtics in four games.

Odds and Lines

The Knicks enter as home favourites. Moneyline: New York Knicks -275 (1.36) | Philadelphia 76ers +215 (3.15). The spread has New York at -7.5 (-1.93 both sides). The game total is set at 213 points (over/under both at 1.91). Odds via Ballybet.

Build your own parlay for this game using the Statz Bet Builder Tool.

Series Context

This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Both teams arrive fresh – neither has played in this series. New York swept Atlanta three games in hand (W 114-98, W 126-97, W 140-89). Philadelphia knocked out Boston in five, winning three on the bounce (W 96-128, W 113-97, W 106-93, W 109-100) after dropping Game 1. Both series wins show different paths: NYK by force, PHI with momentum.

Team Form (Last 5)

New York Knicks: W vs ATL (114-98), W vs ATL (126-97), W vs ATL (140-89), L vs ATL (Game 1), L today (Game 1 of this series – result pending). Record this postseason: dominant vs Atlanta, 55 wins on the season (64% win rate, 86 games).

Philadelphia 76ers: L vs BOS (96-128), W vs BOS (113-97), W vs BOS (106-93), W vs BOS (109-100), now entering this series. Season record: 47-38 (55.3%), 85 games played.

Team Stats Comparison

The Knicks have been the more efficient team across the season. NYK average 116.3 ppg on 47.7% FG and 37.2% from three, allowing 110 ppg – a +6.3 average margin. PHI score 115 ppg on 46.1% FG and 34.8% from three, with a negative point differential at -0.7 per game. NYK average more assists (27.2 vs 24.3), more three-pointers made (14.1 vs 12.2), and hold a clear rebounding edge (45.8 vs 43.5).

Pace and Shooting Analysis

Both teams are rated Slow in pace. NYK pace value: 81.8. PHI pace value: 90.7 – giving Philadelphia a slight pace advantage. In the shooting splits, Philadelphia leads in FG% (47.6% vs 44.8%), three-point percentage (37.2% vs 36.3%), while the Knicks hold the free-throw edge (81.6% vs 76.2%). The model gives Philadelphia a marginal win probability edge at 51.5% vs NYK 48.5%.

Key Player Projections

New York Knicks:

Jalen Brunson: 25.9 pts | 7.2 ast | 2.3 reb projected
OG Anunoby: 19.7 pts | 7.4 reb | 1.4 ast projected
Karl-Anthony Towns: 19.1 pts | 11.3 reb | 6.2 ast projected
Josh Hart: 9.9 pts | 7.6 reb | 3.8 ast projected
Mikal Bridges: 9.8 pts | 2.0 reb | 2.1 ast projected

Philadelphia 76ers:

Joel Embiid: 28.1 pts | 9.1 reb | 5.2 ast projected
Tyrese Maxey: 27.2 pts | 4.5 reb | 5.8 ast projected
Paul George: 17.0 pts | 4.3 reb | 3.0 ast projected
VJ Edgecombe: 15.0 pts | 7.5 reb | 3.8 ast projected
Kelly Oubre Jr.: 11.0 pts | 5.7 reb | 1.1 ast projected

Active Prop Streaks

Several players arrive with active streaks heading into Game 1:

Andre Drummond (PHI) – Points over 2.5: 8-game over streak, averaging 9.2 pts in last 5 (14, 12, 10, 5, 5). FanDuel line 2.5 at 2.04.
VJ Edgecombe (PHI) – Rebounds over 5.5: 6-game over streak, last five: 11, 7, 9, 6, 8. Average 7.8 per game.
VJ Edgecombe (PHI) – Pts+Reb+Ast over 21.5: 6-game over streak.
Josh Hart (NYK) – Blocks under 0.5: 12-game under streak (0 blocks in last 5).
Jalen Brunson (NYK) – Blocks under 0.5: 10-game under streak (0 blocks in last 5).
Kelly Oubre Jr. (PHI) – Assists under 1.5: 8-game under streak.

Milestone Streaks

VJ Edgecombe (PHI) – Steals 1+: 7-game streak, averaging 1.7 steals. DraftKings line at 1.38.
Kelly Oubre Jr. (PHI) – Steals 1+: 6-game streak, averaging 2.2 steals per game (last 5: 1, 3, 4, 3, 1). DraftKings 1.40.
Joel Embiid (PHI) – Blocks 1+: 5-game streak, averaging 2.2 blocks (last 5: 4, 3, 1, 2, 1). DraftKings 1.34.

Top Hit Rates

Andre Drummond (PHI) – Rebounds 2+: 100% L5, 100% L10, 95.3% season
VJ Edgecombe (PHI) – Pts+Ast 15+: 100% L5, 90% L10, 75% season
Joel Embiid (PHI) – Blocks 1+: 100% L5, 80% L10, 78.9% season
Kelly Oubre Jr. (PHI) – Steals 1+: 100% L5, 80% L10, 70.6% season

Injuries

No active injury reports for either team heading into this game.

Stan’s Take

The numbers tell two stories. NYK’s season-long efficiency and home advantage make them the favourite – but PHI’s pace edge and Embiid-Maxey firepower (56 combined projected points) means this is far from a walkover. The model calls it 51.5% PHI – essentially a coin flip. The real edges are in the props: VJ Edgecombe is on a tear and PHI’s steals crew (Edgecombe, Oubre) has been consistent all series. Watch the Drummond points line – 8-game over streak at minimal risk.

Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks Predictions – NBA Playoff Preview | May 4, 2026