Magic lean on Franz Wagner with Banchero out

The Orlando Magic go to Boston on Monday without Paolo Banchero, and they are expected to start Wagner, Carter Jr., Bane, Black and Da Silva against the Boston Celtics.

Franz Wagner has been carrying the load, and the bench behind the five is where the trouble sits: Jalen Suggs is projected for 31.3 minutes as the sixth man, and the next reserves score barely six points a game. The Magic are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

The expected five for Monday 16 November is Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. up front, with Desmond Bane, Anthony Black and Tristan Da Silva alongside them. The five comes from recent starts, minus anyone ruled out, so it allows for everyone on the injury report.

Confirmed lineups come about 30 minutes before tip-off, so treat this as the working version until then. Is Anthony Black starting? He is in the expected five, and he is the guard who steps into the space Banchero leaves.

Banchero's own numbers show how much has to be replaced, and how little of it we have seen. He has played just 2 games, and in them he has 24.5 points, 7.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds in 33.8 minutes, shooting 69.6% from the field and 50.0% from three. Two games is a tiny sample, but the scoring is the point: he is the team's top scorer, a hair ahead of Wagner.

Wagner is doing the heavy lifting. He leads the team in minutes at 36.8 a game, scores 24.4 and leads in assists at 8.3, which makes him the offense's engine as well as its top scorer. The oddity is his three-point shooting: 26.6% from deep for a player who creates this much for others.

Carter Jr. is the rebounding anchor. His 9.3 boards a game lead the team, well clear of Wagner's 6.8, and he shoots 60.4% from the field on 13.5 points. Take him out and nobody else on the roster is near that number.

Bane, Black and Da Silva are the secondary scorers. Bane averages 18.3 points and hits 40.9% from three. Black, at 16.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists, adds 1.8 steals a game, the most on the roster. Da Silva gives 14.8 points and 38.6% from three. All five starters play at least 30 minutes.

The first players off the bench are Suggs, Jase Richardson, Jamal Cain and Jevon Carter. The rotation list ranks every available player by minutes, so it reads straight down from sixth man to the end of the rotation.

Suggs at 31.3 projected minutes is a starter in all but name, more than Da Silva's 30.6 this season. Richardson is next at 16.8, then Cain at 13.9 and Carter at 12.0. After that the minutes drop away fast.

One caution on the figures. The minutes above are the projected rotation for Monday. The season table lists different averages: Suggs 30.3 minutes over 4 games, Richardson 21.8, Cain 18.2 and Carter 14.9. They are two separate sets of numbers, and they are not blended here.

The centers are a short-minutes pair. Goga Bitadze plays 11.5 minutes over 10 games and shoots 65.2% from the field, while Nikola Vucevic plays 10.0 minutes over 12 games and shoots 36.1%. With Carter Jr. in the five, neither is asked for much.

Suggs is the clearest problem. In 4 games he has 6.8 points on 30.6% shooting, with 13.3% from three. He does other things: 5.0 assists and 1.5 steals a game show he is still moving the ball and pressing on defense. But a player in line for 31 minutes is not producing the points to match.

The scoring ladder behind him is flat. Cain has 6.4 points on 40.7%, Richardson 5.9 on 32.1% and 22.2% from three, and Carter 4.5 on 32.5%. The reserves who get the most minutes are not the ones converting best. Bitadze is the efficient outlier: 4.4 points and 65.2% in only 11.5 minutes, against 2.7 points for Vucevic.

Put it together and the second unit scores in the low single figures, one player at a time. Without Banchero's 24.5 to spread the floor, that puts more on the starters to keep the margin.

There are four players on the injury report, all listed as out. Banchero is the only absence that runs past 18 November: he is expected back on 22 Nov, which answers the question of when Paolo Banchero returns for the Magic.

Jonathan Isaac is listed as expected back on 16 Nov, the day of the Boston game, so he is a late-news watch. Izaiyah Nelson and Noah Penda are both expected back on 18 Nov. The full list is on the injuries report.

Monday's game at the Boston Celtics comes down to one practical question: does the expected five hold once the confirmed lineups land, about 30 minutes before tip-off? Isaac's status is the one that could move it.

The other thing to watch is Suggs. His 31.3 projected minutes are the clearest sign he is the sixth man in name only, and whether he moves into the five or stays on the bench tells you how Orlando plan to spread the load without Banchero.

For the rest of the week, Orlando's rotation ranked by minutes is the quickest read on who is playing and how much.

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