Denver NuggetsNuggets
Wed, Oct 288:00 PMETNew Orleans
New Orleans PelicansPelicans
DEN1.55NOP2.82SpreadNOP +4.5Total239.5via Polymarket

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

By Statz NBA · Published · Updated

DEN

Statz pick

Denver Nuggets to win

We give the Denver Nuggets a 65% chance, against 35% for the New Orleans Pelicans. See the full projection →

65%
DEN to win
Polymarket1.55

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 65% to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday 28 October. The market agrees, with Denver at -4.5 and the total at 240.5. The model line is -4.8, so there is little spread edge. The injury that matters most is Yves Missi, who is out for New Orleans.

The Denver Nuggets visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Denver the favourite at 65% to win. The market agrees on the side and has the Nuggets at -4.5 with the total at 240.5. The model's own line is -4.8, so the price is close to fair. The edge, if there is one, sits in who is available.

How the teams arrive

New Orleans are 0-3 this season, a run of L L L. Two of the losses were narrow: 119-120 at Utah and 120-123 at home to Indiana. The third was 135-141 at Denver. The Pelicans average 124.7 points for and concede 128.0. They are scoring enough to stay in games. The defence is what is costing them.

Denver are 1-2, a run of L W L. They beat these Pelicans 141-135 at home in the first meeting this season. Between the road trip and that win came a 114-134 home loss to Golden State, and they opened with an 84-96 defeat at Oklahoma City. The Nuggets average 113.0 points for and concede 121.7. Their offence has been uneven, and that win over New Orleans is the one game where it ran freely.

Team news and lineups

New Orleans lose Yves Missi, who is out with a left knee bone bruise. His listed return date is 2 November, and reports say he faces an extended absence with no firm timetable. That removes their frontcourt depth. Derik Queen is the player flagged to take on more work, and the rebounding load shifts to him and Julian Reese, whose projection below reflects it.

Denver are without three players. Spencer Jones is out with a hamstring issue and is considered week-to-week. Julian Strawther has a left knee sprain and was set to be re-evaluated in six weeks. Alpha Diallo is out for personal reasons, and his next chance to return is Friday in Phoenix. With Strawther sidelined, Tyus Jones and potentially Ryan Nembhard are the candidates for extra minutes. None of the three Denver absences changes the top of the rotation, which is why the model still has the Nuggets as clear favourites.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is projected for 19.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He is New Orleans' top scorer in the model, and with Missi out, his work near the rim matters more.

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III is projected for 19.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 3.8 threes. The three-point volume is what stands out. New Orleans need his shooting to keep pace with Denver's offence.

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey is projected for 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.7 threes. He gives the Pelicans a second perimeter scorer if Denver's defence leans on Williamson.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is projected for 25.6 points, 15.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists. That line is the main reason Denver are favoured. New Orleans are thin in the middle without Missi.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray is projected for 24.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 3.6 threes. He is the scoring outlet when Jokic is doubled.

DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan is projected for 19.2 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists. With three Denver players out, his scoring helps cover the thinner bench.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Safer4 legs

Short prices the player has cleared in at least four of their last five.

  • Player
    Nikola Jokic
    Under 10.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 80.3%
    FanDuel1.83
  • Player
    Saddiq Bey
    Over 11.5 Points · 5/5 last 5 · 72.2%
    Fanatics1.87
  • Player
    Christian Braun
    Under 1.5 Threes · 5/5 last 5 · 70.7%
    PP1.57
  • Player
    Jeremiah Fears
    Under 1.5 Threes · 4/5 last 5 · 70.7%
    Fanatics1.44

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 7.74.

Market 9.9%Statz 29%+19.1%
Edge4 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    Derik Queen
    Under 10.5 Reb + Ast · 2/5 last 5 · 99.9%
    PP2.00
  • Player
    Aaron Gordon
    Under 24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 3/5 last 5 · 84.4%
    PP1.91
  • Player
    Nikola Jokic
    Under 10.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 80.3%
    FanDuel1.83
  • Player
    Trey Murphy III
    Over 2.5 Threes · 1/5 last 5 · 69.7%
    FanDuel2.26
PP15.47
Market 5.6%Statz 47.2%+41.6%
Scoring4 legs

Points, threes and the combination markets, over.

  • Player
    Saddiq Bey
    Over 11.5 Points · 5/5 last 5 · 72.2%
    Fanatics1.87
  • Player
    DeMar DeRozan
    Over 13.5 Points · 2/5 last 5 · 71.1%
    PP1.73
  • Player
    Trey Murphy III
    Over 2.5 Threes · 1/5 last 5 · 69.7%
    FanDuel2.26
  • Player
    Jamal Murray
    Over 2.5 Threes · 4/5 last 5 · 66.2%
    BetRivers1.62

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 11.84.

Market 6.9%Statz 23.7%+16.8%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz Best Bets for this game

The props our model rates above their price, from the Best Bets board.

Every Best Bet →

Statz prediction

The model takes the Denver Nuggets. It gives them a 65% chance to win and a line of -4.8 against the market's -4.5, a gap of 0.3 points. That is too small to call a spread edge, and the model leans to neither side. The total is the same story: the model projects 240.9 against a market 240.5, a gap of 0.4. There is no total lean either. The call here is the side, not the number. The best Nuggets moneyline price is 1.54 at FanDuel, and the best -4.5 price is 1.89 at Ballybet. Compare prices on the NBA odds page.

Statz pick: Denver Nuggets to win, 65% model probability, market line -4.5.

For a same game parlay to look at, the Edge slip pays 16.2 at Paddy Power. It combines Derik Queen Under 10.5 Reb + Ast, Aaron Gordon Under 18.5 Pts + Ast, Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 Assists and Trey Murphy III Over 2.5 Threes. See the slip on Same Game Parlays. Parlays carry a lot of risk, as every leg has to land. Lines move before tip, so check the number before you bet.

DEN @ NOP questions

Who does the model favour in Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 65% to win. Its own line is Nuggets -4.8, which sits close to the market line of -4.5, so the model and the market agree on the side.
What is the spread and total for Nuggets at Pelicans?
The market has the Denver Nuggets at -4.5 and the Pelicans at +4.5, with the total at 240.5. The model projects 240.9 points, a gap of 0.4, so it leans to neither side of the total.
What time is Nuggets vs Pelicans?
The game is on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. It is played in New Orleans, where the Pelicans are the home side.
Who is injured for the Pelicans?
Yves Missi is out with a left knee bone bruise and has a listed return date of 2 November. Derik Queen is the player flagged to take on more work in his absence.
Who is injured for the Nuggets?
Denver are without Spencer Jones (hamstring), Julian Strawther (left knee sprain) and Alpha Diallo (personal reasons). Diallo's next chance to return is Friday in Phoenix. Jones is week-to-week.
How have the teams started this season?
New Orleans are 0-3 with an average of 124.7 points scored and 128.0 conceded. Denver are 1-2, averaging 113.0 scored and 121.7 conceded. Denver won the first meeting this season 141-135.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Denver Nuggets or New Orleans Pelicans?

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 65% win probability, leaving the New Orleans Pelicans at 35%. Bet365 agrees, pricing the Denver Nuggets as the favourite at -1.0 on the spread. The moneyline is +162 for the New Orleans Pelicans and -196 for the Denver Nuggets.

What is the spread and total for Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans?

Bet365 lists the New Orleans Pelicans at +1.0 with the total at 240.5 for Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans?

The board's headline lines are Nikola Jokic 49.5+ points at 41.00, Jamal Murray 8.5+ threes at 29.00 and DeAndre Jordan 19.5+ rebounds at 36.00. For the New Orleans Pelicans the model projects Zion Williamson for 19.9 points and Trey Murphy III for 19.2 points.