Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | S'oton win | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | S'oton win | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 8.6% |
| 3-0 | S'oton win | 8.2% |
| 1-0 | S'oton win | 8.0% |
| 3-1 | S'oton win | 7.7% |
| 4-0 | S'oton win | 4.9% |
| 4-1 | S'oton win | 4.6% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 4.5% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 4.2% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% |
| S'oton clean sheet | 39% |
| Derby clean sheet | 9% |
The most likely score in S'oton vs Derby is 2-0, a 10% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 2-1 at 10%. The Championship game kicks off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects S'oton 2.40 - 0.93 Derby in goals for S'oton vs Derby, with over 2.5 goals 65% likely and both teams to score 56%.
Statz projects 22 players for S'oton vs Derby on Saturday 21 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 12:30 UK time kick-off.
S'oton host Derby at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton on 21 November 2026 at 12:30 in the Championship. S'oton's last five results: D W W D L (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss). Derby's last five: L D L L W (1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses). In their last 2 meetings, S'oton have won 1, Derby 0, with 1 draw.
S'oton vs Derby kicks off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026 in the Championship, at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. St. Mary's Stadium holds 32,384 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 12:30.
S'oton vs Derby is being played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton on Saturday 21 November 2026, the home ground of S'oton, which holds 32,384 people. Kick-off is at 12:30 UK time, and the match is part of the Championship.
S'oton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 5, with results reading D W W D L from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 0-1 defeat away to Preston in the Championship on 7 November.
Derby have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 11, with results reading L D L L W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 3-1 win at home to Bolton in the Championship on 6 November.
Across the last 2 meetings S'oton have won 1, Derby have won 0 and 1 was drawn, with S'oton scoring 3 goals to Derby's 2. The most recent was Southampton 2-1 Derby County on 11 April 2026 in the Championship.
Kuryu Matsuki leads S'oton with 4 goals across their last 10 games, 0.4 a game, the most of any S'oton player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every S'oton player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
David Ozoh leads Derby with 18 fouls committed across their last 10 games, 1.8 a game, the most of any Derby player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Derby player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Statz predicts S'oton vs Derby with 11 starters a side: S'oton line up 4-2-3-1 and Derby 4-2-3-1, ahead of the 12:30 UK time kick-off on Saturday 21 November 2026. The predicted XIs are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes S'oton the favourite with a 69% chance of winning, against 12% for Derby and 19% for the draw. Projected goals are S'oton 2.4 - 0.9 Derby.
The most likely score in S'oton vs Derby is 2-0, a S'oton win, at 10%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 56% likely and over 2.5 goals 65%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for S'oton vs Derby, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Championship | Southampton vs Derby County | 2-1 |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Championship | Derby County vs Southampton | 1-1 |
Statz's projection model expects S'oton 2.4 - 0.9 Derby in goals. It gives S'oton a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Derby 12%. Both teams to score is 56% likely, over 1.5 goals 85% and over 2.5 goals 65%. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%), 1-0 (8%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | S'oton win | 10% |
| 2-1 | S'oton win | 10% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 9% |
| 3-0 | S'oton win | 8% |
| 1-0 | S'oton win | 8% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for S'oton vs Derby, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | S'oton | Fouls committed | Derby | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Matsuki | 12 | D. Ozoh | 18 |
| 2 | C. Larin | 11 | C. Morris | 15 |
| 3 | F. Downes | 9 | H. Meister | 13 |
| 4 | R. Manning | 7 | M. Fuseini | 10 |
| 5 | L. Dobbin | 6 | A. Mowatt | 6 |
| # | S'oton | Shots | Derby | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Azaz | 23 | S. Szmodics | 24 |
| 2 | K. Matsuki | 19 | B. Clark | 22 |
| 3 | L. Scienza | 18 | C. Morris | 16 |
| 4 | C. Larin | 17 | M. Fuseini | 13 |
| 5 | J. Ward-Prowse | 12 | H. Meister | 11 |
| # | S'oton | Shots on target | Derby | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Scienza | 12 | B. Clark | 7 |
| 2 | F. Azaz | 8 | S. Szmodics | 6 |
| 3 | K. Matsuki | 7 | M. Fuseini | 5 |
| 4 | C. Larin | 5 | C. Morris | 4 |
| 5 | S. Edozie | 4 | H. Meister | 3 |
| # | S'oton | Goals | Derby | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Matsuki | 4 | B. Clark | 2 |
| 2 | C. Larin | 3 | R. Brewster | 1 |
| 3 | J. Bree | 2 | J. Robinson | 1 |
| 4 | F. Azaz | 2 | R. Nyambe | 1 |
| 5 | S. Edozie | 1 | F. Bilbija | 1 |
| # | S'oton | Yellow cards | Derby | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Downes | 2 | D. Ozoh | 3 |
| 2 | C. Bragg | 2 | R. Brewster | 2 |
| 3 | R. Manning | 2 | R. Nyambe | 2 |
| 4 | C. Larin | 2 | C. Morris | 1 |
| 5 | C. Jander | 1 | B. Clark | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for S'oton vs Derby: Finn Azaz 1+ shots on target (100% hit rate at 1.50); Leo Scienza 1+ shots on target (100% hit rate at 1.40); Carlton Morris 1+ shots (100% hit rate at 1.20); Bobby Clark 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.30). Combined odds 3.28 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.1 | 4 of 24 |
| Goals against | 1 | 3 of 24 |
| Shots | 15.6 | 5 of 24 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 6 of 24 |
| Fouls | 8.3 | 24 of 24 |
| Tackles | 11.3 | 24 of 24 |
| Passes | 513.1 | 4 of 24 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 9 of 24 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.9 | 22 of 24 |
| Goals against | 2 | 23 of 24 |
| Shots | 11.9 | 17 of 24 |
| Shots on target | 3.8 | 16 of 24 |
| Fouls | 12.2 | 4 of 24 |
| Tackles | 16.6 | 4 of 24 |
| Passes | 378.1 | 15 of 24 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 12 of 24 |