Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 18 October 2026, after the last game
Le Havre have the biggest shortfall in the Ligue 1: 2 points from chances worth 10.0 xPts, a gap of 8.0. At the other end, Monaco have taken 14 points from an xPts figure of 8.1, 5.9 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympique Lyonnais | 4 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 2 | Paris | 4 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +5 | 2.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 |
| 3 | Rennes | 4 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | +5 | 1.9 | +3.1 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 |
| 4 | LOSC Lille | 4 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | +3 | 1.3 | +1.7 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 |
| 5 | Brest | 3 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 4 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | -4 | 0.7 | -4.7 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 |
| 7 | Le Havre | 4 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | -4 | 0.3 | -4.3 | 1 | 5.8 | -4.8 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 4 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | -2 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 3 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | -2 | 2.2 | -4.2 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 |
| 10 | Lorient | 4 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| 11 | Lens | 3 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | +0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 13 | Nice | 4 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | +2 | -0.4 | +2.4 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 |
| 14 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | +1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Troyes | 4 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 11 | 7.2 | +3.8 | -8 | -1.8 | -6.2 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 |
| 16 | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | +2 | -2.0 | +4.0 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 17 | Monaco | 3 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | +3 | -0.9 | +3.9 | 7 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 3 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 10 | 11.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | +4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 |
| 2 | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 3 | Lens | 4 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | +0 | -0.3 | +0.3 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Paris | 3 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | +0 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 5 | Brest | 4 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | +0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | Toulouse | 4 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | +3 | -1.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 7 | Monaco | 4 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | +1 | -1.7 | +2.7 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 8 | Le Havre | 3 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | -2 | 0.1 | -2.1 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 |
| 9 | Lorient | 3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | Troyes | 3 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | -3 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 11 | Olympique Lyonnais | 3 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | +1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Strasbourg | 4 | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | -4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 14 | Nice | 3 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | -5 | -1.9 | -3.1 | 0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 15 | LOSC Lille | 3 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 2 | 6.4 | -4.4 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 3 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | -3 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 4 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 | -6 | -5.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 18 | Angers SCO | 3 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 10 | 14.1 | -4.1 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | 12 | 10.4 | +1.6 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 3 | Toulouse | 5 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | +3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 |
| 4 | Paris | 5 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | +2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 |
| 5 | Le Havre | 5 | 4 | 9.9 | -5.9 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | -5 | 1.9 | -6.9 | 1 | 8.3 | -7.3 |
| 6 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | +3 | 0.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Rennes | 5 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | 10 | 10.1 | -0.1 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | -4 | -0.4 | -3.6 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 |
| 9 | Lorient | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 |
| 10 | Lens | 5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | +1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Nice | 5 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | +0 | -0.4 | +0.4 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 12 | Brest | 5 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | +3 | -0.2 | +3.2 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 5 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | -1 | -2.7 | +1.7 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 |
| 14 | Troyes | 5 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 | 15 | 8.9 | +6.1 | -12 | -2.1 | -9.9 | 0 | 5.4 | -5.4 |
| 15 | Monaco | 5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | +1 | -2.6 | +3.6 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 |
| 16 | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | 8 | 12.2 | -4.2 | +2 | -3.9 | +5.9 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 17 | Strasbourg | 5 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | +0 | -2.4 | +2.4 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 18 | Angers SCO | 5 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 | -6 | -3.2 | -2.8 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
Strasbourg are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, with 12 goals from chances worth 9.2 xG, a gap of 2.8. Monaco are next on 2.0.
Le Havre are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, with 5 goals from chances worth 11.6 xG, a shortfall of 6.6. Troyes are next on 4.5.
Monaco are the luckiest side in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, with 14 points from performances worth 8.1 xPts, 5.9 more than their chances deserved. LOSC Lille are next on 4.8.
Le Havre are the unluckiest side in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, with 2 points from performances worth 10.0 xPts, 8.0 short of what they deserved. Troyes are next on 3.9.
Paris Saint Germain would be top of Ligue 1 in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 14.1 xPts from 17.4 xG created and 8.4 conceded across seven matches. Paris are next on 12.6.
Paris Saint Germain have created the most xG in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, 17.4 from seven matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Rennes are next on 13.9.
Nice have created the least xG in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, 7.3 from seven matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Monaco are next on 8.0.
Rennes and Le Mans have conceded the most xG in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, both on 14.3 from seven matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Strasbourg are next on 14.2.
Paris and Olympique Lyonnais have conceded the least xG in Ligue 1 in 2026/2027, both on 7.9 from seven matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Paris Saint Germain are next on 8.4.
Ligue 1 teams have averaged 1.61 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 63 matches played, and have scored 1.52 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.41 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Ligue 1 teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.75 a game against 1.47 away, a home advantage of +0.28, against +0.36 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 14 | 17.4 | -3.4 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | +5 | 8.9 | -3.9 | 14 | 14.1 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Paris | 7 | 12 | 12.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | +5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 14 | 12.6 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyonnais | 7 | 13 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | +8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 14 | 12.0 | +2.0 |
| 4 | Brest | 7 | 13 | 13.8 | -0.8 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | +3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 9 | 11.7 | -2.7 |
| 5 | Lens | 7 | 14 | 13.7 | +0.3 | 11 | 11.9 | -0.9 | +3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 |
| 6 | Toulouse | 7 | 12 | 12.6 | -0.6 | 11 | 12.0 | -1.0 | +1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 |
| 7 | Le Havre | 7 | 5 | 11.6 | -6.6 | 11 | 11.2 | -0.2 | -6 | 0.4 | -6.4 | 2 | 10.0 | -8.0 |
| 8 | Rennes | 7 | 15 | 14.0 | +1.0 | 14 | 14.4 | -0.4 | +1 | -0.3 | +1.3 | 13 | 9.7 | +3.3 |
| 9 | Olympique Marseille | 7 | 14 | 12.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 13.6 | -3.6 | +4 | -1.5 | +5.5 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 |
| 10 | Lorient | 7 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | +1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 |
| 11 | LOSC Lille | 7 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 5 | 10.5 | -5.5 | +5 | -1.2 | +6.2 | 14 | 9.2 | +4.8 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 7 | 9 | 11.3 | -2.3 | 15 | 13.7 | +1.3 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 |
| 13 | Le Mans | 7 | 10 | 11.1 | -1.1 | 15 | 14.3 | +0.7 | -5 | -3.2 | -1.8 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 |
| 14 | Nice | 7 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | -3 | -2.3 | -0.7 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Monaco | 7 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 10.5 | -4.5 | +4 | -2.5 | +6.5 | 14 | 8.1 | +5.9 |
| 16 | Troyes | 7 | 5 | 9.5 | -4.5 | 16 | 11.7 | +4.3 | -11 | -2.3 | -8.7 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 7 | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 | 17 | 13.4 | +3.6 | -6 | -4.1 | -1.9 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 7 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 | 15 | 14.2 | +0.8 | -3 | -5.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |