St. Mirren xG 2026/2027

St. Mirren xG Questions

Are St. Mirren overperforming their xG?

No, St. Mirren have taken 21 points over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 4.67 fewer than the 25.67 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.

What is St. Mirren's xG per game?

St. Mirren create 1.23 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 24.52 in all, and have scored 18 goals from those chances, 6.52 fewer than that xG would expect.

What is St. Mirren's xGA per game?

St. Mirren allow 1.44 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 28.77 in all, and have conceded 30 goals from those chances, 1.23 more than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for St. Mirren?

Killian Phillips has the most expected goals (xG) for St. Mirren over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 4.30 xG in 15 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; J. Young is next with 1.99 xG.

St. Mirren expected goals 2026/2027: last 20

Games: 20
Expected goals (xG): 24.52
Goals scored: 18
Goals minus xG: -6.52
Expected goals against (xGA): 28.77
Goals conceded: 30
xGA minus goals conceded: -1.23
Expected points (xPts): 25.67
Points: 21
Points minus xPts: -4.67
Verdict: A bit unlucky

Are St. Mirren overperforming their expected goals?

St. Mirren have taken 4.7 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: -6.5 goals against their xG, and -1.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Next opponent: Dundee expected goals

Games: 20
Dundee xG per game: 1.26
Dundee xGA per game: 1.89
Points minus xPts: +7.92
Verdict: Riding their luck

St. Mirren results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
Last 20	20	24.52	18	-6.52	28.77	30	-1.23	25.67	21	-4.67
Last 10	10	14.76	10	-4.76	17.53	18	-0.47	12.86	11	-1.86
Last 5	5	6.50	2	-4.50	12.06	14	-1.94	4.03	0	-4.03
Home	9	12.66	8	-4.66	13.18	15	-1.82	12.45	8	-4.45
Away	11	11.86	10	-1.86	15.59	15	+0.59	13.22	13	-0.22

St. Mirren expected goals match by match, last 20

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
17 Oct	Scottish Premiership	Aberdeen (A)	3-1	1.39	2.35	0.85	0	L
10 Oct	Scottish Premiership	Hearts (A)	5-0	0.71	3.15	0.26	0	L
19 Sep	Scottish Premiership	Dundee Utd (H)	0-3	1.27	1.57	1.18	0	L
9 Sep	Scottish Premiership	Rangers (A)	1-0	1.01	2.13	0.71	0	L
5 Sep	Scottish Premiership	Celtic (H)	1-2	2.12	2.86	1.03	0	L
2 Sep	Scottish Premiership	Kilmarnock (A)	0-1	1.15	0.70	1.70	3	W
30 Aug	Scottish Premiership	Motherwell (H)	3-3	2.60	2.03	1.71	1	W
8 Aug	Scottish Premiership	St. Johnstone (H)	1-0	1.59	1.42	1.49	3	W
1 Aug	Scottish Premiership	Falkirk (A)	0-2	1.64	0.84	1.94	3	W
17 May	Scottish Premiership	Dundee Utd (H)	1-1	1.28	0.48	1.99	1	W
12 May	Scottish Premiership	Aberdeen (A)	0-2	1.29	0.69	1.82	3	W
9 May	Scottish Premiership	Kilmarnock (H)	0-3	1.31	1.19	1.45	0	W
2 May	Scottish Premiership	Dundee (A)	1-0	0.72	0.68	1.35	0	D
25 Apr	Scottish Premiership	Livingston (H)	0-2	1.27	0.59	1.89	0	W
11 Apr	Scottish Premiership	Celtic (A)	1-0	0.35	0.83	0.85	0	L
4 Apr	Scottish Premiership	Aberdeen (H)	2-0	0.91	0.76	1.46	3	W
21 Mar	Scottish Premiership	Falkirk (A)	1-2	0.85	1.17	1.10	3	L
15 Mar	Scottish Premiership	Rangers (H)	0-1	0.31	2.28	0.25	0	L
3 Mar	Scottish Premiership	Dundee Utd (A)	2-1	1.35	2.13	0.93	0	L
28 Feb	Scottish Premiership	Livingston (A)	1-1	1.40	0.92	1.71	1	W

St. Mirren players: goals against expected goals, last 20

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Jonah Ayunga	attacker	5	243	0.31	1	+0.69	0.12
Declan John	defender	13	1000	0.51	1	+0.49	0.05
Paul Nsio	midfielder	8	697	0.60	1	+0.40	0.08
Miguel Freckleton	defender	11	946	0.63	1	+0.37	0.06
Samuel Ramos	midfielder	5	282	0.71	1	+0.29	0.23
Liam Donnelly	midfielder	10	645	0.80	1	+0.20	0.11
Fraser Taylor	midfielder	7	370	0.90	1	+0.10	0.22
Richard King	defender	8	351	0.93	1	+0.07	0.24
Eseosa Sule	attacker	9	381	0.98	1	+0.02	0.23
J. Young	attacker	18	541	1.99	2	+0.01	0.33
Dan N'Lundulu	attacker	5	368	1.00	1	0.00	0.25
Killian Phillips	midfielder	15	1295	4.30	4	-0.30	0.30
Ismeal Kabia	attacker	7	550	0.51	0	-0.51	0.08
Alex Gogic	defender	18	1620	1.58	1	-0.58	0.09
Nikolas Agrafiotis	attacker	4	267	1.59	1	-0.59	0.53
Mikael Mandron	attacker	8	635	0.59	0	-0.59	0.08
Luke Thomas	attacker	9	248	1.00	0	-1.00	0.36
Calvin Ramsay	defender	7	565	1.12	0	-1.12	0.18
Mark O'Hara	midfielder	11	869	1.25	0	-1.25	0.13

Scottish Premiership 2026/2027: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Celtic	9	23.8	23	10.9	5	18.1	24	+5.9
2	Dundee	9	12	13	16.5	10	10.1	14	+3.9
3	Rangers	9	20.5	13	9.2	7	18.6	20	+1.4
4	St. Johnstone	9	12.9	11	14.3	11	11.2	12	+0.8
5	Kilmarnock	9	10.7	10	22.7	20	7.2	8	+0.8
6	Hearts	9	17.4	20	12.6	15	15.6	16	+0.4
7	Falkirk	9	9.7	9	15.8	12	8.6	9	+0.4
8	Aberdeen	9	11.7	10	13.7	10	11.1	11	-0.1
9	Dundee United	9	16	11	15	12	12.9	12	-0.9
10	St. Mirren	9	13.5	9	17.1	17	10.9	10	-0.9
11	Motherwell	9	15.8	11	18.5	16	11.9	8	-3.9
12	Hibernian	9	15.8	9	13.4	14	14.2	7	-7.2

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