Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 18 October 2026, after the last game
Hibernian have the biggest shortfall in the Scottish Premiership: 7 points from chances worth 14.2 xPts, a gap of 7.2. At the other end, Celtic have taken 24 points from an xPts figure of 18.1, 5.9 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 5 | 13 | 9.8 | +3.2 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | +10 | 4.8 | +5.2 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 |
| 2 | Hearts | 4 | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | +11 | 6.5 | +4.5 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 |
| 3 | Hibernian | 5 | 4 | 8.9 | -4.9 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 | -5 | 3.1 | -8.1 | 1 | 9.0 | -8.0 |
| 4 | Rangers | 4 | 6 | 10.5 | -4.5 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | +3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Aberdeen | 5 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | +1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | St. Johnstone | 5 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 |
| 7 | Dundee United | 4 | 3 | 8.3 | -5.3 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | -1 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 8 | Dundee | 5 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | +2 | -0.7 | +2.7 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 4 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | -3 | 1.0 | -4.0 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 10 | St. Mirren | 4 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 4 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 13 | 15.7 | -2.7 | -8 | -10.3 | +2.3 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rangers | 5 | 7 | 9.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 11 | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 2 | Celtic | 4 | 10 | 14.0 | -4.0 | 2 | 6.0 | -4.0 | +8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 |
| 3 | Hearts | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 | -6 | -1.8 | -4.2 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 4 | Dundee United | 5 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | +0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | St. Mirren | 5 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | -5 | -3.3 | -1.7 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Motherwell | 5 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | 10 | 12.9 | -2.9 | -2 | -3.9 | +1.9 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 4 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | +0 | -0.7 | +0.7 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 8 | Kilmarnock | 4 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 9 | St. Johnstone | 4 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | -1 | -1.7 | +0.7 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 5 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 8.6 | -3.6 | +0 | -4.6 | +4.6 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 4 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -2.8 | +1.8 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Dundee | 4 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 8.8 | -4.8 | +1 | -3.8 | +4.8 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rangers | 5 | 8 | 12.1 | -4.1 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | +5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 13 | 10.9 | +2.1 |
| 2 | Hearts | 5 | 10 | 10.8 | -0.8 | 11 | 6.2 | +4.8 | -1 | 4.6 | -5.6 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 |
| 3 | Celtic | 5 | 12 | 11.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 | +9 | 3.9 | +5.1 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 4 | Dundee United | 5 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | +1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| 5 | Aberdeen | 5 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | +5 | 0.8 | +4.2 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 |
| 6 | Hibernian | 5 | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 | -4 | 0.1 | -4.1 | 1 | 7.2 | -6.2 |
| 7 | St. Johnstone | 5 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 7.8 | -3.8 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.2 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 8 | Dundee | 5 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | +1 | -2.2 | +3.2 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 |
| 9 | Falkirk | 5 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 6 | 9.1 | -3.1 | +1 | -2.5 | +3.5 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 10 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 9.4 | -3.4 | +0 | -3.4 | +3.4 | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 |
| 11 | Motherwell | 5 | 3 | 7.8 | -4.8 | 12 | 12.6 | -0.6 | -9 | -4.8 | -4.2 | 0 | 4.9 | -4.9 |
| 12 | St. Mirren | 5 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 | 14 | 12.0 | +2.0 | -12 | -5.6 | -6.4 | 0 | 4.0 | -4.0 |
Hearts are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, with 20 goals from chances worth 17.4 xG, a gap of 2.6. Dundee are next on 1.0.
Rangers are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, with 13 goals from chances worth 20.4 xG, a shortfall of 7.4. Hibernian are next on 6.8.
Celtic are the luckiest side in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, with 24 points from performances worth 18.1 xPts, 5.9 more than their chances deserved. Dundee are next on 3.8.
Hibernian are the unluckiest side in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, with 7 points from performances worth 14.2 xPts, 7.2 short of what they deserved. Motherwell are next on 3.8.
Rangers would be top of the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 18.6 xPts from 20.4 xG created and 9.2 conceded across nine matches. Celtic are next on 18.1.
Celtic have created the most xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, 23.8 from nine matches, 2.7 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Rangers are next on 20.4.
Falkirk have created the least xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, 9.7 from nine matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Kilmarnock are next on 10.7.
Kilmarnock have conceded the most xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, 22.4 from nine matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Motherwell are next on 18.5.
Rangers have conceded the least xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, 9.2 from nine matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Celtic are next on 10.9.
Scottish Premiership teams have averaged 1.66 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 54 matches played, and have scored 1.38 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.45 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Scottish Premiership teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.76 a game against 1.56 away, a home advantage of +0.21, against +0.32 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rangers | 9 | 13 | 20.4 | -7.4 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 | +6 | 11.2 | -5.2 | 20 | 18.6 | +1.4 |
| 2 | Celtic | 9 | 23 | 23.8 | -0.8 | 5 | 10.9 | -5.9 | +18 | 12.9 | +5.1 | 24 | 18.1 | +5.9 |
| 3 | Hearts | 9 | 20 | 17.4 | +2.6 | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 | +5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 16 | 15.6 | +0.4 |
| 4 | Hibernian | 9 | 9 | 15.8 | -6.8 | 14 | 13.4 | +0.6 | -5 | 2.4 | -7.4 | 7 | 14.2 | -7.2 |
| 5 | Dundee United | 9 | 11 | 16.0 | -5.0 | 12 | 15.0 | -3.0 | -1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 12 | 12.9 | -0.9 |
| 6 | Motherwell | 9 | 11 | 15.6 | -4.6 | 16 | 18.5 | -2.5 | -5 | -2.9 | -2.1 | 8 | 11.8 | -3.8 |
| 7 | St. Johnstone | 9 | 11 | 12.9 | -1.9 | 11 | 14.3 | -3.3 | +0 | -1.4 | +1.4 | 12 | 11.2 | +0.8 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 9 | 10 | 11.6 | -1.6 | 10 | 13.7 | -3.7 | +0 | -2.1 | +2.1 | 11 | 11.1 | -0.1 |
| 9 | St. Mirren | 9 | 9 | 13.5 | -4.5 | 17 | 17.0 | +0.0 | -8 | -3.6 | -4.4 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 |
| 10 | Dundee | 9 | 13 | 12.0 | +1.0 | 10 | 16.5 | -6.5 | +3 | -4.5 | +7.5 | 14 | 10.2 | +3.8 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 9 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 | 12 | 15.8 | -3.8 | -3 | -6.1 | +3.1 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 | 20 | 22.4 | -2.4 | -10 | -11.7 | +1.7 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 |