St. Mirren have the biggest shortfall in the Scottish Premiership: 34 points from chances worth 50.1 xPts, a gap of 16.1. At the other end, Hearts have taken 80 points from an xPts figure of 63.9, 16.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 19 | 43 | 45.7 | -2.7 | 15 | 14.3 | +0.7 | +28 | 31.3 | -3.3 | 46 | 42.4 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Rangers | 19 | 39 | 39.3 | -0.3 | 21 | 21.6 | -0.6 | +18 | 17.7 | +0.3 | 38 | 36.0 | +2.0 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 19 | 32 | 31.0 | +1.0 | 13 | 17.3 | -4.3 | +19 | 13.7 | +5.3 | 36 | 34.8 | +1.2 |
| 4 | Hibernian | 19 | 32 | 34.1 | -2.1 | 19 | 21.3 | -2.3 | +13 | 12.8 | +0.2 | 30 | 34.4 | -4.4 |
| 5 | Hearts | 19 | 37 | 29.4 | +7.6 | 11 | 17.5 | -6.5 | +26 | 11.9 | +14.1 | 49 | 33.9 | +15.1 |
| 6 | Falkirk | 20 | 33 | 33.2 | -0.2 | 34 | 26.1 | +7.9 | -1 | 7.1 | -8.1 | 26 | 31.2 | -5.2 |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 19 | 28 | 28.7 | -0.7 | 23 | 25.5 | -2.5 | +5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | 26 | 27.7 | -1.7 |
| 8 | St. Mirren | 19 | 11 | 23.4 | -12.4 | 22 | 22.0 | +0.0 | -11 | 1.4 | -12.4 | 21 | 27.3 | -6.3 |
| 9 | Kilmarnock | 19 | 28 | 30.5 | -2.5 | 28 | 30.8 | -2.8 | +0 | -0.4 | +0.4 | 25 | 26.7 | -1.7 |
| 10 | Dundee United | 19 | 24 | 27.9 | -3.9 | 22 | 32.7 | -10.7 | +2 | -4.8 | +6.8 | 28 | 24.9 | +3.1 |
| 11 | Dundee | 19 | 31 | 24.0 | +7.0 | 28 | 31.1 | -3.1 | +3 | -7.1 | +10.1 | 31 | 21.7 | +9.3 |
| 12 | Livingston | 18 | 24 | 20.8 | +3.2 | 36 | 33.6 | +2.4 | -12 | -12.8 | +0.8 | 11 | 19.2 | -8.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 19 | 30 | 37.0 | -7.0 | 26 | 24.9 | +1.1 | +4 | 12.1 | -8.1 | 36 | 31.3 | +4.7 |
| 2 | Rangers | 19 | 37 | 35.1 | +1.9 | 22 | 24.5 | -2.5 | +15 | 10.5 | +4.5 | 34 | 31.3 | +2.7 |
| 3 | Hearts | 19 | 30 | 27.8 | +2.2 | 23 | 21.4 | +1.6 | +7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 31 | 29.9 | +1.1 |
| 4 | Motherwell | 19 | 27 | 25.2 | +1.8 | 23 | 30.6 | -7.6 | +4 | -5.5 | +9.5 | 25 | 23.9 | +1.1 |
| 5 | Hibernian | 19 | 26 | 22.2 | +3.8 | 25 | 28.7 | -3.7 | +1 | -6.5 | +7.5 | 27 | 23.1 | +3.9 |
| 6 | St. Mirren | 19 | 19 | 24.1 | -5.1 | 33 | 28.6 | +4.4 | -14 | -4.6 | -9.4 | 13 | 22.8 | -9.8 |
| 7 | Dundee United | 19 | 25 | 26.4 | -1.4 | 38 | 32.5 | +5.5 | -13 | -6.1 | -6.9 | 17 | 22.4 | -5.4 |
| 8 | Falkirk | 18 | 17 | 19.8 | -2.8 | 28 | 27.9 | +0.1 | -11 | -8.1 | -2.9 | 23 | 20.5 | +2.5 |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 19 | 12 | 19.3 | -7.3 | 32 | 33.6 | -1.6 | -20 | -14.4 | -5.6 | 14 | 18.0 | -4.0 |
| 10 | Livingston | 20 | 16 | 20.5 | -4.5 | 39 | 40.3 | -1.3 | -23 | -19.8 | -3.2 | 10 | 16.8 | -6.8 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 19 | 22 | 20.3 | +1.7 | 40 | 40.5 | -0.5 | -18 | -20.2 | +2.2 | 15 | 16.6 | -1.6 |
| 12 | Dundee | 19 | 11 | 16.3 | -5.3 | 33 | 34.3 | -1.3 | -22 | -18.0 | -4.0 | 11 | 15.2 | -4.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 5 | 14 | 9.9 | +4.1 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | +8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | 15 | 9.4 | +5.6 |
| 2 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | +10 | 4.3 | +5.7 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| 3 | St. Mirren | 5 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | 7 | 3.6 | +3.4 | -4 | 2.2 | -6.2 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 |
| 4 | Rangers | 5 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 | -2 | 1.9 | -3.9 | 3 | 8.1 | -5.1 |
| 5 | Hearts | 5 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | +3 | 0.4 | +2.6 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Falkirk | 5 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 14 | 6.6 | +7.4 | -9 | 0.3 | -9.3 | 3 | 6.8 | -3.8 |
| 7 | Dundee United | 5 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 |
| 8 | Livingston | 5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | -4 | -1.4 | -2.6 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +0 | -1.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Dundee | 5 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | +0 | -3.4 | +3.4 | 9 | 5.5 | +3.5 |
| 11 | Motherwell | 5 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | +0 | -3.2 | +3.2 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 5 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | +0 | -3.9 | +3.9 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
Hearts overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Scottish Premiership in 2025/2026, with 67 goals from chances worth 57.2 xG, a gap of 9.8. Motherwell were next on 2.9.
St. Mirren underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Scottish Premiership in 2025/2026, with 30 goals from chances worth 47.5 xG, a shortfall of 17.5. Celtic were next on 9.7.
Hearts were the luckiest side in the Scottish Premiership in 2025/2026, with 80 points from performances worth 63.9 xPts, 16.1 more than their chances deserved. Celtic were next on 8.3.
St. Mirren were the unluckiest side in the Scottish Premiership in 2025/2026, with 34 points from performances worth 50.1 xPts, 16.1 short of what they deserved. Livingston were next on 15.0.
Celtic were also top of the Scottish Premiership in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 73.7 xPts from 82.7 xG created and 39.3 conceded across 38 matches. Rangers were next on 67.2.
Celtic created the most xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2025/2026, 82.7 from 38 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Rangers were next on 74.4.
Dundee created the least xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2025/2026, 40.3 from 38 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Livingston were next on 41.3.
Livingston conceded the most xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2025/2026, 73.9 from 38 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Kilmarnock were next on 71.3.
Hearts conceded the least xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2025/2026, 38.9 from 38 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Celtic were next on 39.3.
Scottish Premiership teams averaged 1.45 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 228 matches played, and scored 1.39 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.46 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Scottish Premiership teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.61 a game against 1.29 away, a home advantage of +0.32, against +0.38 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 38 | 73 | 82.7 | -9.7 | 41 | 39.3 | +1.7 | +32 | 43.4 | -11.4 | 82 | 73.7 | +8.3 |
| 2 | Rangers | 38 | 76 | 74.4 | +1.6 | 43 | 46.2 | -3.2 | +33 | 28.2 | +4.8 | 72 | 67.2 | +4.8 |
| 3 | Hearts | 38 | 67 | 57.2 | +9.8 | 34 | 38.9 | -4.9 | +33 | 18.3 | +14.7 | 80 | 63.9 | +16.1 |
| 4 | Motherwell | 38 | 59 | 56.1 | +2.9 | 36 | 47.9 | -11.9 | +23 | 8.2 | +14.8 | 61 | 58.7 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Hibernian | 38 | 58 | 56.3 | +1.7 | 44 | 50.0 | -6.0 | +14 | 6.3 | +7.7 | 57 | 57.5 | -0.5 |
| 6 | Falkirk | 38 | 50 | 53.0 | -3.0 | 62 | 54.0 | +8.0 | -12 | -1.0 | -11.0 | 49 | 51.8 | -2.8 |
| 7 | St. Mirren | 38 | 30 | 47.5 | -17.5 | 55 | 50.6 | +4.4 | -25 | -3.2 | -21.8 | 34 | 50.1 | -16.1 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 38 | 49 | 54.3 | -5.3 | 60 | 65.3 | -5.3 | -11 | -10.9 | -0.1 | 45 | 47.4 | -2.4 |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 38 | 40 | 48.0 | -8.0 | 55 | 59.1 | -4.1 | -15 | -11.1 | -3.9 | 40 | 45.7 | -5.7 |
| 10 | Kilmarnock | 38 | 50 | 50.8 | -0.8 | 68 | 71.3 | -3.3 | -18 | -20.5 | +2.5 | 40 | 43.3 | -3.3 |
| 11 | Dundee | 38 | 42 | 40.3 | +1.7 | 61 | 65.4 | -4.4 | -19 | -25.1 | +6.1 | 42 | 36.9 | +5.1 |
| 12 | Livingston | 38 | 40 | 41.3 | -1.3 | 75 | 73.9 | +1.1 | -35 | -32.6 | -2.4 | 21 | 36.0 | -15.0 |