St. Johnstone have the biggest shortfall in the Scottish Premiership: 32 points from chances worth 42.8 xPts, a gap of 10.8. At the other end, Dundee United have taken 53 points from an xPts figure of 45.4, 7.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 19 | 62 | 54.4 | +7.6 | 9 | 11.1 | -2.1 | +53 | 43.2 | +9.8 | 50 | 46.6 | +3.4 |
| 2 | Rangers | 19 | 44 | 45.8 | -1.8 | 12 | 11.9 | +0.1 | +32 | 33.8 | -1.8 | 44 | 44.1 | -0.1 |
| 3 | Kilmarnock | 19 | 27 | 33.7 | -6.7 | 20 | 21.0 | -1.0 | +7 | 12.7 | -5.7 | 32 | 33.6 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Hibernian | 19 | 39 | 32.4 | +6.6 | 23 | 23.9 | -0.9 | +16 | 8.5 | +7.5 | 36 | 31.1 | +4.9 |
| 5 | Hearts | 19 | 28 | 28.8 | -0.8 | 21 | 21.3 | -0.3 | +7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 30 | 31.1 | -1.1 |
| 6 | Aberdeen | 19 | 31 | 30.0 | +1.0 | 26 | 24.9 | +1.1 | +5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 34 | 30.0 | +4.0 |
| 7 | St. Mirren | 20 | 30 | 25.1 | +4.9 | 27 | 24.7 | +2.3 | +3 | 0.4 | +2.6 | 29 | 28.5 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Ross County | 19 | 22 | 25.8 | -3.8 | 28 | 28.7 | -0.7 | -6 | -2.9 | -3.1 | 21 | 26.1 | -5.1 |
| 9 | Dundee United | 19 | 23 | 27.6 | -4.6 | 27 | 29.1 | -2.1 | -4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 27 | 25.2 | +1.8 |
| 10 | St. Johnstone | 19 | 19 | 23.8 | -4.8 | 30 | 27.3 | +2.7 | -11 | -3.4 | -7.6 | 20 | 23.9 | -3.9 |
| 11 | Dundee | 19 | 34 | 25.3 | +8.7 | 39 | 36.4 | +2.6 | -5 | -11.1 | +6.1 | 20 | 20.9 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Motherwell | 17 | 26 | 21.0 | +5.0 | 26 | 27.5 | -1.5 | +0 | -6.5 | +6.5 | 28 | 19.8 | +8.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 19 | 50 | 46.1 | +3.9 | 17 | 17.1 | -0.1 | +33 | 28.9 | +4.1 | 42 | 40.9 | +1.1 |
| 2 | Rangers | 19 | 36 | 29.7 | +6.3 | 29 | 27.2 | +1.8 | +7 | 2.5 | +4.5 | 31 | 28.1 | +2.9 |
| 3 | Hearts | 19 | 24 | 25.0 | -1.0 | 26 | 26.7 | -0.7 | -2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 22 | 25.6 | -3.6 |
| 4 | Hibernian | 19 | 23 | 24.9 | -1.9 | 27 | 29.2 | -2.2 | -4 | -4.3 | +0.3 | 22 | 23.8 | -1.8 |
| 5 | Motherwell | 20 | 19 | 23.4 | -4.4 | 36 | 32.4 | +3.6 | -17 | -9.0 | -8.0 | 20 | 22.8 | -2.8 |
| 6 | St. Mirren | 18 | 23 | 25.4 | -2.4 | 32 | 30.5 | +1.5 | -9 | -5.1 | -3.9 | 21 | 22.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | Dundee United | 19 | 22 | 22.8 | -0.8 | 27 | 32.9 | -5.9 | -5 | -10.0 | +5.0 | 26 | 20.2 | +5.8 |
| 8 | St. Johnstone | 19 | 19 | 17.4 | +1.6 | 38 | 30.5 | +7.5 | -19 | -13.1 | -5.9 | 12 | 19.0 | -7.0 |
| 9 | Dundee | 19 | 23 | 19.4 | +3.6 | 38 | 38.8 | -0.8 | -15 | -19.4 | +4.4 | 21 | 17.5 | +3.5 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 19 | 17 | 19.0 | -2.0 | 35 | 36.3 | -1.3 | -18 | -17.3 | -0.7 | 19 | 17.1 | +1.9 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 18 | 17 | 18.7 | -1.7 | 43 | 33.6 | +9.4 | -26 | -14.9 | -11.1 | 11 | 16.8 | -5.8 |
| 12 | Ross County | 19 | 15 | 16.1 | -1.1 | 37 | 38.7 | -1.7 | -22 | -22.6 | +0.6 | 16 | 15.2 | +0.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 5 | 15 | 12.8 | +2.2 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | +11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | 11 | 11.1 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Rangers | 5 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | +6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 5 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | +2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 |
| 4 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | St. Johnstone | 5 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 | -5 | 1.0 | -6.0 | 3 | 7.4 | -4.4 |
| 6 | St. Mirren | 5 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +3 | 0.2 | +2.8 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 |
| 7 | Hearts | 5 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +6 | 0.3 | +5.7 | 12 | 6.8 | +5.2 |
| 8 | Hibernian | 5 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | -1 | -2.2 | +1.2 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Ross County | 5 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 | -5 | -2.7 | -2.3 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 |
| 10 | Dundee | 5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | 6 | 10.1 | -4.1 | +1 | -4.4 | +5.4 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 5 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 12 | 10.6 | +1.4 | -9 | -5.3 | -3.7 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Dundee United | 5 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 | -10 | -6.3 | -3.7 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
Dundee overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Scottish Premiership in 2024/2025, with 57 goals from chances worth 44.8 xG, a gap of 12.2. Celtic were next on 11.6.
Kilmarnock underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Scottish Premiership in 2024/2025, with 44 goals from chances worth 52.4 xG, a shortfall of 8.4. Dundee United were next on 5.4.
Dundee United were the luckiest side in the Scottish Premiership in 2024/2025, with 53 points from performances worth 45.4 xPts, 7.6 more than their chances deserved. Aberdeen were next on 5.9.
St. Johnstone were the unluckiest side in the Scottish Premiership in 2024/2025, with 32 points from performances worth 42.8 xPts, 10.8 short of what they deserved. Kilmarnock were next on 7.4.
Celtic were also top of the Scottish Premiership in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 87.5 xPts from 100.4 xG created and 28.3 conceded across 38 matches. Rangers were next on 72.2.
Celtic created the most xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2024/2025, 100.4 from 38 matches, 2.6 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Rangers were next on 75.5.
St. Johnstone created the least xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2024/2025, 41.2 from 38 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Ross County were next on 42.0.
Dundee conceded the most xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2024/2025, 75.2 from 38 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Ross County were next on 67.4.
Celtic conceded the least xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2024/2025, 28.3 from 38 matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Rangers were next on 39.1.
Scottish Premiership teams averaged 1.46 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 227 matches played, and scored 1.48 goals a game from it.
Scottish Premiership teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.65 a game against 1.27 away, a home advantage of +0.38.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 38 | 112 | 100.4 | +11.6 | 26 | 28.3 | -2.3 | +86 | 72.1 | +13.9 | 92 | 87.5 | +4.5 |
| 2 | Rangers | 38 | 80 | 75.5 | +4.5 | 41 | 39.1 | +1.9 | +39 | 36.3 | +2.7 | 75 | 72.2 | +2.8 |
| 3 | Hearts | 38 | 52 | 53.8 | -1.8 | 47 | 47.9 | -0.9 | +5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 52 | 56.7 | -4.7 |
| 4 | Hibernian | 38 | 62 | 57.3 | +4.7 | 50 | 53.1 | -3.1 | +12 | 4.2 | +7.8 | 58 | 54.9 | +3.1 |
| 5 | St. Mirren | 38 | 53 | 50.5 | +2.5 | 59 | 55.2 | +3.8 | -6 | -4.7 | -1.3 | 50 | 51.2 | -1.2 |
| 6 | Kilmarnock | 37 | 44 | 52.4 | -8.4 | 63 | 54.6 | +8.4 | -19 | -2.2 | -16.8 | 43 | 50.4 | -7.4 |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 38 | 48 | 49.0 | -1.0 | 61 | 61.2 | -0.2 | -13 | -12.1 | -0.9 | 53 | 47.1 | +5.9 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 38 | 45 | 50.4 | -5.4 | 54 | 61.9 | -7.9 | -9 | -11.5 | +2.5 | 53 | 45.4 | +7.6 |
| 9 | St. Johnstone | 38 | 38 | 41.2 | -3.2 | 68 | 57.8 | +10.2 | -30 | -16.6 | -13.4 | 32 | 42.8 | -10.8 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 37 | 45 | 44.4 | +0.6 | 62 | 59.9 | +2.1 | -17 | -15.6 | -1.4 | 48 | 42.7 | +5.3 |
| 11 | Ross County | 38 | 37 | 42.0 | -5.0 | 65 | 67.4 | -2.4 | -28 | -25.4 | -2.6 | 37 | 41.3 | -4.3 |
| 12 | Dundee | 38 | 57 | 44.8 | +12.2 | 77 | 75.2 | +1.8 | -20 | -30.5 | +10.5 | 41 | 38.4 | +2.6 |