Yes, Kilmarnock have taken 28 points over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 5.05 more than the 22.95 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Kilmarnock create 1.39 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 27.83 in all, and have scored 30 goals from those chances, 2.17 more than that xG would expect.
Kilmarnock allow 1.96 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 39.29 in all, and have conceded 34 goals from those chances, 5.29 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Joe Hugill has the most expected goals (xG) for Kilmarnock over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 7.58 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Findlay Curtis is next with 3.92 xG.
Kilmarnock have taken 5.1 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +2.2 goals against their xG, and +5.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 27.83 | 30 | +2.17 | 39.29 | 34 | +5.29 | 22.95 | 28 | +5.05 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.05 | 14 | +0.95 | 23.13 | 21 | +2.13 | 9.66 | 11 | +1.34 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.97 | 6 | +0.03 | 9.37 | 6 | +3.37 | 4.94 | 8 | +3.06 |
| Home | 10 | 16.22 | 16 | -0.22 | 21.87 | 16 | +5.87 | 11.92 | 17 | +5.08 |
| Away | 10 | 11.61 | 14 | +2.39 | 17.42 | 18 | -0.58 | 11.03 | 11 | -0.03 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Scottish Premiership | Motherwell (H) | 3-2 | 1.86 | 3.38 | 0.69 | 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | Scottish Premiership | Rangers (A) | 3-1 | 1.30 | 1.68 | 1.13 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Hearts (H) | 1-1 | 0.42 | 1.92 | 0.41 | 1 | L |
| 15 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Hibernian (A) | 0-1 | 1.61 | 1.65 | 1.36 | 3 | L |
| 5 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Aberdeen (A) | 0-0 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 1.35 | 1 | D |
| 2 Sep | Scottish Premiership | St. Mirren (H) | 0-1 | 0.70 | 1.15 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Dundee Utd (H) | 0-4 | 1.31 | 3.47 | 0.43 | 0 | L |
| 9 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Celtic (H) | 1-5 | 1.09 | 5.75 | 0.08 | 0 | L |
| 2 Aug | Scottish Premiership | St. Johnstone (A) | 4-3 | 1.67 | 2.68 | 0.86 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | Scottish Premiership | Livingston (A) | 1-4 | 2.31 | 0.71 | 2.37 | 3 | W |
| 12 May | Scottish Premiership | Dundee (H) | 3-1 | 3.65 | 0.44 | 2.79 | 3 | W |
| 9 May | Scottish Premiership | St. Mirren (A) | 0-3 | 1.19 | 1.31 | 1.28 | 3 | L |
| 2 May | Scottish Premiership | Dundee Utd (H) | 3-0 | 2.03 | 2.42 | 1.19 | 3 | L |
| 25 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Aberdeen (A) | 1-0 | 0.92 | 0.91 | 1.35 | 0 | W |
| 11 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Dundee (H) | 2-2 | 1.73 | 1.23 | 1.71 | 1 | W |
| 4 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Hibernian (A) | 3-0 | 0.69 | 1.68 | 0.69 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | Scottish Premiership | Livingston (H) | 2-0 | 1.76 | 0.99 | 1.89 | 3 | W |
| 14 Mar | Scottish Premiership | Hearts (H) | 1-0 | 1.67 | 1.12 | 1.75 | 3 | W |
| 28 Feb | Scottish Premiership | Falkirk (A) | 5-1 | 0.40 | 3.98 | 0.08 | 0 | L |
| 21 Feb | Scottish Premiership | Dundee Utd (A) | 1-1 | 0.74 | 2.08 | 0.56 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Schjönning-Larsen | defender | 20 | 1576 | 1.74 | 3 | +1.26 | 0.10 |
| Findlay Curtis | attacker | 11 | 907 | 3.92 | 5 | +1.08 | 0.39 |
| Nicky Clescenco | attacker | 8 | 367 | 0.93 | 2 | +1.07 | 0.23 |
| Marley Watkins | attacker | 6 | 195 | 0.29 | 1 | +0.71 | 0.14 |
| Greg Kiltie | attacker | 20 | 1694 | 3.30 | 4 | +0.70 | 0.18 |
| George Stanger | defender | 18 | 1573 | 0.40 | 1 | +0.60 | 0.02 |
| Joe Hugill | attacker | 20 | 1759 | 7.58 | 8 | +0.42 | 0.39 |
| Robbie Deas | defender | 12 | 1009 | 0.93 | 1 | +0.07 | 0.08 |
| Tom Lowery | midfielder | 17 | 1368 | 1.13 | 1 | -0.13 | 0.07 |
| Bruce Anderson | attacker | 8 | 300 | 0.68 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.20 |
| Tyreece John-Jules | attacker | 9 | 560 | 1.88 | 1 | -0.88 | 0.30 |
| Aaron Tshibola | midfielder | 18 | 1247 | 1.69 | 0 | -1.69 | 0.12 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 23.8 | 23 | 10.9 | 5 | 18.1 | 24 | +5.9 |
| 2 | Dundee | 9 | 12 | 13 | 16.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 14 | +3.8 |
| 3 | Rangers | 9 | 20.4 | 13 | 9.2 | 7 | 18.6 | 20 | +1.4 |
| 4 | St. Johnstone | 9 | 12.9 | 11 | 14.3 | 11 | 11.2 | 12 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 10.7 | 10 | 22.4 | 20 | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 |
| 6 | Hearts | 9 | 17.4 | 20 | 12.6 | 15 | 15.6 | 16 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Falkirk | 9 | 9.7 | 9 | 15.8 | 12 | 8.6 | 9 | +0.4 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 9 | 11.6 | 10 | 13.7 | 10 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Dundee United | 9 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 12.9 | 12 | -0.9 |
| 10 | St. Mirren | 9 | 13.5 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 11 | Motherwell | 9 | 15.6 | 11 | 18.5 | 16 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 15.8 | 9 | 13.4 | 14 | 14.2 | 7 | -7.2 |