Yes, Dundee have taken 29 points over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 7.91 more than the 21.09 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Dundee create 1.26 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 25.11 in all, and have scored 31 goals from those chances, 5.89 more than that xG would expect.
Dundee allow 1.89 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 37.71 in all, and have conceded 29 goals from those chances, 8.71 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Joe Westley has the most expected goals (xG) for Dundee over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 5.25 xG in 17 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Ashley Hay is next with 3.64 xG.
Dundee have taken 7.9 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +5.9 goals against their xG, and +8.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 25.11 | 31 | +5.89 | 37.71 | 29 | +8.71 | 21.09 | 29 | +7.91 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.71 | 16 | +2.29 | 17.45 | 12 | +5.45 | 12.06 | 17 | +4.94 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.74 | 8 | +1.26 | 8.98 | 7 | +1.98 | 5.73 | 8 | +2.27 |
| Home | 12 | 16.51 | 23 | +6.49 | 20.51 | 16 | +4.51 | 14.49 | 22 | +7.51 |
| Away | 8 | 8.60 | 8 | -0.60 | 17.20 | 13 | +4.20 | 6.60 | 7 | +0.40 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Scottish Premiership | Rangers (H) | 2-2 | 0.85 | 2.18 | 0.59 | 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | Scottish Premiership | Falkirk (A) | 1-2 | 2.24 | 2.16 | 1.45 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Motherwell (H) | 2-1 | 1.58 | 1.03 | 1.75 | 3 | W |
| 6 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Hearts (A) | 2-1 | 0.43 | 2.38 | 0.29 | 0 | L |
| 2 Sep | Scottish Premiership | St. Johnstone (H) | 1-1 | 1.64 | 1.23 | 1.65 | 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Hibernian (H) | 1-2 | 0.85 | 2.40 | 0.51 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Dundee Utd (A) | 0-2 | 1.77 | 1.71 | 1.43 | 3 | W |
| 8 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Aberdeen (H) | 2-0 | 2.04 | 0.86 | 2.15 | 3 | W |
| 3 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Celtic (A) | 1-0 | 0.59 | 2.56 | 0.33 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | Scottish Premiership | Aberdeen (H) | 3-2 | 1.72 | 0.94 | 1.91 | 3 | W |
| 12 May | Scottish Premiership | Kilmarnock (A) | 3-1 | 0.44 | 3.65 | 0.11 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Scottish Premiership | Livingston (H) | 3-0 | 1.99 | 2.21 | 1.28 | 3 | L |
| 2 May | Scottish Premiership | St. Mirren (H) | 1-0 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 1.27 | 3 | D |
| 26 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Dundee Utd (A) | 3-0 | 1.25 | 1.93 | 0.96 | 0 | L |
| 11 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Kilmarnock (A) | 2-2 | 1.23 | 1.73 | 1.05 | 1 | L |
| 5 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Celtic (H) | 1-2 | 1.80 | 2.47 | 1.03 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | Scottish Premiership | Hearts (A) | 1-0 | 0.65 | 1.08 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| 15 Mar | Scottish Premiership | Dundee Utd (H) | 2-2 | 1.43 | 3.06 | 0.60 | 1 | L |
| 7 Mar | Scottish Premiership | Motherwell (H) | 2-1 | 1.21 | 1.71 | 1.05 | 3 | L |
| 28 Feb | Scottish Premiership | Hibernian (H) | 3-3 | 0.72 | 1.70 | 0.70 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drey Wright | midfielder | 18 | 1535 | 1.22 | 3 | +1.78 | 0.07 |
| Bradley Fink | attacker | 7 | 427 | 1.89 | 3 | +1.11 | 0.40 |
| Owen Bevan | defender | 9 | 810 | 0.89 | 2 | +1.11 | 0.10 |
| Scott Wright | attacker | 7 | 230 | 0.04 | 1 | +0.96 | 0.01 |
| Cameron Congreve | midfielder | 10 | 795 | 1.09 | 2 | +0.91 | 0.12 |
| Finlay Robertson | midfielder | 15 | 649 | 1.14 | 2 | +0.86 | 0.16 |
| Callum Jones | midfielder | 6 | 444 | 0.15 | 1 | +0.85 | 0.03 |
| Simon Murray | attacker | 12 | 654 | 2.33 | 3 | +0.67 | 0.32 |
| Ryan Astley | defender | 19 | 1704 | 0.74 | 1 | +0.26 | 0.04 |
| Tony Yogane | attacker | 11 | 618 | 0.76 | 1 | +0.24 | 0.11 |
| Joe Bevan | attacker | 11 | 632 | 0.77 | 1 | +0.23 | 0.11 |
| Luke Graham | defender | 10 | 813 | 0.92 | 1 | +0.08 | 0.10 |
| Joe Westley | attacker | 17 | 1027 | 5.25 | 5 | -0.25 | 0.46 |
| Charlie Reilly | midfielder | 14 | 418 | 1.36 | 1 | -0.36 | 0.29 |
| Ashley Hay | attacker | 14 | 595 | 3.64 | 3 | -0.64 | 0.55 |
| Ethan Hamilton | midfielder | 19 | 1697 | 0.96 | 0 | -0.96 | 0.05 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 23.8 | 23 | 10.9 | 5 | 18.1 | 24 | +5.9 |
| 2 | Dundee | 9 | 12 | 13 | 16.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 14 | +3.8 |
| 3 | Rangers | 9 | 20.4 | 13 | 9.2 | 7 | 18.6 | 20 | +1.4 |
| 4 | St. Johnstone | 9 | 12.9 | 11 | 14.3 | 11 | 11.2 | 12 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 10.7 | 10 | 22.4 | 20 | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 |
| 6 | Hearts | 9 | 17.4 | 20 | 12.6 | 15 | 15.6 | 16 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Falkirk | 9 | 9.7 | 9 | 15.8 | 12 | 8.6 | 9 | +0.4 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 9 | 11.6 | 10 | 13.7 | 10 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Dundee United | 9 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 12.9 | 12 | -0.9 |
| 10 | St. Mirren | 9 | 13.5 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 11 | Motherwell | 9 | 15.6 | 11 | 18.5 | 16 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 15.8 | 9 | 13.4 | 14 | 14.2 | 7 | -7.2 |