No, Falkirk have taken 19 points over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 4.60 fewer than the 23.60 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Falkirk create 1.33 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 26.66 in all, and have scored 27 goals from those chances, 0.34 more than that xG would expect.
Falkirk allow 1.58 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 31.67 in all, and have conceded 39 goals from those chances, 7.33 more than that xGA would expect.
Barney Stewart has the most expected goals (xG) for Falkirk over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 4.62 xG in 9 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Calvin Miller is next with 4.56 xG.
Falkirk have taken 4.6 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: +0.3 goals against their xG, and -7.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 26.66 | 27 | +0.34 | 31.67 | 39 | -7.33 | 23.60 | 19 | -4.60 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.67 | 11 | -0.67 | 18.20 | 17 | +1.20 | 9.81 | 9 | -0.81 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.65 | 7 | +0.35 | 9.09 | 6 | +3.09 | 5.62 | 8 | +2.38 |
| Home | 10 | 17.45 | 17 | -0.45 | 16.50 | 24 | -7.50 | 13.85 | 9 | -4.85 |
| Away | 10 | 9.21 | 10 | +0.79 | 15.17 | 15 | +0.17 | 9.75 | 10 | +0.25 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Scottish Premiership | Hibernian (A) | 1-2 | 0.67 | 1.51 | 0.76 | 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | Scottish Premiership | Dundee (H) | 1-2 | 2.16 | 2.24 | 1.35 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | Scottish Premiership | St. Johnstone (A) | 1-1 | 1.29 | 0.65 | 1.86 | 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Hearts (H) | 2-1 | 1.53 | 1.85 | 1.19 | 3 | L |
| 5 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Dundee Utd (A) | 1-1 | 1.00 | 2.84 | 0.46 | 1 | L |
| 2 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Rangers (H) | 1-2 | 1.11 | 1.42 | 1.15 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Celtic (A) | 2-1 | 0.43 | 1.73 | 0.48 | 0 | L |
| 9 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Motherwell (A) | 0-0 | 0.65 | 1.88 | 0.58 | 1 | L |
| 1 Aug | Scottish Premiership | St. Mirren (H) | 0-2 | 0.84 | 1.64 | 0.82 | 0 | L |
| 16 May | Scottish Premiership | Rangers (H) | 2-5 | 1.99 | 2.44 | 1.16 | 0 | L |
| 13 May | Scottish Premiership | Hearts (A) | 3-0 | 0.28 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Scottish Premiership | Hibernian (H) | 1-3 | 0.81 | 1.01 | 1.17 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Scottish Premiership | Motherwell (H) | 1-0 | 2.39 | 1.21 | 2.09 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Celtic (A) | 3-1 | 1.49 | 1.12 | 1.63 | 0 | W |
| 12 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Rangers (H) | 3-6 | 1.47 | 3.44 | 0.50 | 0 | L |
| 4 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Motherwell (A) | 2-3 | 2.14 | 1.55 | 1.75 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | Scottish Premiership | St. Mirren (H) | 1-2 | 1.17 | 0.85 | 1.60 | 0 | W |
| 14 Mar | Scottish Premiership | Aberdeen (A) | 1-1 | 0.81 | 1.28 | 1.00 | 1 | L |
| 28 Feb | Scottish Premiership | Kilmarnock (H) | 5-1 | 3.98 | 0.40 | 2.82 | 3 | W |
| 21 Feb | Scottish Premiership | Hearts (A) | 1-0 | 0.45 | 1.78 | 0.47 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Broggio | attacker | 11 | 762 | 2.00 | 3 | +1.00 | 0.24 |
| Jacob Murrell | attacker | 7 | 470 | 3.11 | 4 | +0.89 | 0.60 |
| Henry Cartwright | midfielder | 10 | 196 | 0.22 | 1 | +0.78 | 0.10 |
| Dylan Tait | midfielder | 11 | 814 | 1.37 | 2 | +0.63 | 0.15 |
| Kyrell Wilson | attacker | 8 | 254 | 0.37 | 1 | +0.63 | 0.13 |
| Ben Krauhaus | midfielder | 8 | 604 | 0.60 | 1 | +0.40 | 0.09 |
| Barney Stewart | attacker | 9 | 778 | 4.62 | 5 | +0.38 | 0.53 |
| Owen Eames | midfielder | 5 | 412 | 1.01 | 1 | -0.01 | 0.22 |
| Ethan Ross | midfielder | 19 | 922 | 1.52 | 1 | -0.52 | 0.15 |
| CJ Fodrey | attacker | 6 | 197 | 0.59 | 0 | -0.59 | 0.27 |
| Finley Barbrook | midfielder | 8 | 675 | 0.76 | 0 | -0.76 | 0.10 |
| Finn Yeats | defender | 14 | 913 | 1.77 | 1 | -0.77 | 0.17 |
| Brad Spencer | midfielder | 18 | 1516 | 0.79 | 0 | -0.79 | 0.05 |
| Calvin Miller | midfielder | 11 | 886 | 4.56 | 3 | -1.56 | 0.46 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 23.8 | 23 | 10.9 | 5 | 18.1 | 24 | +5.9 |
| 2 | Dundee | 9 | 12 | 13 | 16.5 | 10 | 10.1 | 14 | +3.9 |
| 3 | Rangers | 9 | 20.5 | 13 | 9.2 | 7 | 18.6 | 20 | +1.4 |
| 4 | St. Johnstone | 9 | 12.9 | 11 | 14.3 | 11 | 11.2 | 12 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 10.7 | 10 | 22.7 | 20 | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 |
| 6 | Hearts | 9 | 17.4 | 20 | 12.6 | 15 | 15.6 | 16 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Falkirk | 9 | 9.7 | 9 | 15.8 | 12 | 8.6 | 9 | +0.4 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 9 | 11.7 | 10 | 13.7 | 10 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Dundee United | 9 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 12.9 | 12 | -0.9 |
| 10 | St. Mirren | 9 | 13.5 | 9 | 17.1 | 17 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 11 | Motherwell | 9 | 15.8 | 11 | 18.5 | 16 | 11.9 | 8 | -3.9 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 15.8 | 9 | 13.4 | 14 | 14.2 | 7 | -7.2 |