No, Aberdeen have taken 22 points over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 3.06 fewer than the 25.06 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Aberdeen create 1.21 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 24.19 in all, and have scored 22 goals from those chances, 2.19 fewer than that xG would expect.
Aberdeen allow 1.38 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 27.51 in all, and have conceded 27 goals from those chances, 0.51 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Kevin Nisbet has the most expected goals (xG) for Aberdeen over their last 20 Scottish Premiership games, 8.03 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 9 goals; Toyosi Olusanya is next with 3.61 xG.
Aberdeen have taken 3.1 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: -2.2 goals against their xG, and +0.5 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 24.19 | 22 | -2.19 | 27.51 | 27 | +0.51 | 25.06 | 22 | -3.06 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.58 | 12 | -0.58 | 15.41 | 13 | +2.41 | 11.95 | 11 | -0.95 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.63 | 8 | +1.37 | 5.81 | 3 | +2.81 | 7.32 | 8 | +0.68 |
| Home | 11 | 16.62 | 12 | -4.62 | 12.92 | 9 | +3.92 | 17.29 | 17 | -0.29 |
| Away | 9 | 7.57 | 10 | +2.43 | 14.59 | 18 | -3.41 | 7.77 | 5 | -2.77 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Scottish Premiership | St. Mirren (H) | 3-1 | 2.32 | 1.37 | 1.95 | 3 | W |
| 11 Oct | Scottish Premiership | St. Johnstone (H) | 0-1 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.65 | 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Hibernian (A) | 1-1 | 0.83 | 1.73 | 0.76 | 1 | L |
| 15 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Motherwell (A) | 0-4 | 1.14 | 0.73 | 1.67 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Kilmarnock (H) | 0-0 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 1.29 | 1 | D |
| 2 Sep | Scottish Premiership | Celtic (A) | 3-0 | 0.90 | 2.01 | 0.69 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Rangers (H) | 0-1 | 0.40 | 2.44 | 0.26 | 0 | L |
| 8 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Dundee (A) | 2-0 | 0.86 | 2.04 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 1 Aug | Scottish Premiership | Hearts (H) | 2-1 | 2.85 | 1.39 | 2.18 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Scottish Premiership | Dundee (A) | 3-2 | 0.94 | 1.72 | 0.85 | 0 | L |
| 12 May | Scottish Premiership | St. Mirren (H) | 0-2 | 0.69 | 1.29 | 0.89 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Scottish Premiership | Dundee Utd (H) | 2-0 | 1.78 | 0.92 | 1.96 | 3 | W |
| 1 May | Scottish Premiership | Livingston (A) | 2-2 | 0.97 | 1.92 | 0.78 | 1 | L |
| 25 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Kilmarnock (H) | 1-0 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 1.33 | 3 | L |
| 11 Apr | Scottish Premiership | Hibernian (H) | 2-0 | 2.52 | 0.17 | 2.75 | 3 | W |
| 4 Apr | Scottish Premiership | St. Mirren (A) | 2-0 | 0.76 | 0.91 | 1.20 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | Scottish Premiership | Rangers (A) | 4-1 | 0.48 | 1.91 | 0.45 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Scottish Premiership | Falkirk (H) | 1-1 | 1.28 | 0.81 | 1.71 | 1 | W |
| 4 Mar | Scottish Premiership | Celtic (H) | 1-2 | 1.53 | 1.63 | 1.32 | 0 | L |
| 28 Feb | Scottish Premiership | Hearts (A) | 1-0 | 0.69 | 1.62 | 0.72 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayoub Mouloua | attacker | 9 | 254 | 0.87 | 2 | +1.13 | 0.31 |
| Kevin Nisbet | attacker | 20 | 1621 | 8.03 | 9 | +0.97 | 0.45 |
| Brad Joseph Lyons | midfielder | 3 | 226 | 0.06 | 1 | +0.94 | 0.02 |
| Mitchel Frame | defender | 7 | 471 | 0.18 | 1 | +0.82 | 0.03 |
| Afeez Aremu | midfielder | 17 | 1135 | 0.23 | 1 | +0.77 | 0.02 |
| Liam Morrison | defender | 11 | 884 | 0.28 | 1 | +0.72 | 0.03 |
| Gavin Molloy | defender | 17 | 1365 | 0.37 | 1 | +0.63 | 0.02 |
| Dennis Geiger | midfielder | 9 | 653 | 0.43 | 1 | +0.57 | 0.06 |
| Connor Ronan | midfielder | 7 | 446 | 0.57 | 1 | +0.43 | 0.12 |
| Stuart Armstrong | midfielder | 17 | 992 | 0.64 | 1 | +0.36 | 0.06 |
| Lewis Mayo | defender | 7 | 561 | 1.23 | 1 | -0.23 | 0.20 |
| Tony Yogane | attacker | 6 | 286 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.50 | 0.16 |
| Emmanuel Gyamfi | defender | 5 | 345 | 0.51 | 0 | -0.51 | 0.13 |
| Nicky Devlin | defender | 4 | 230 | 0.52 | 0 | -0.52 | 0.20 |
| Topi Keskinen | attacker | 9 | 255 | 0.56 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.20 |
| Chris Cadden | defender | 9 | 793 | 0.56 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.06 |
| Alexander Jensen | defender | 7 | 474 | 0.72 | 0 | -0.72 | 0.14 |
| Daniel Happe | defender | 6 | 382 | 0.74 | 0 | -0.74 | 0.17 |
| Jack Milne | defender | 16 | 1132 | 1.02 | 0 | -1.02 | 0.08 |
| Toyosi Olusanya | attacker | 19 | 1332 | 3.61 | 2 | -1.61 | 0.24 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 23.8 | 23 | 10.9 | 5 | 18.1 | 24 | +5.9 |
| 2 | Dundee | 9 | 12 | 13 | 16.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 14 | +3.8 |
| 3 | Rangers | 9 | 20.4 | 13 | 9.2 | 7 | 18.6 | 20 | +1.4 |
| 4 | St. Johnstone | 9 | 12.9 | 11 | 14.3 | 11 | 11.2 | 12 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 10.7 | 10 | 22.4 | 20 | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 |
| 6 | Hearts | 9 | 17.4 | 20 | 12.6 | 15 | 15.6 | 16 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Falkirk | 9 | 9.7 | 9 | 15.8 | 12 | 8.6 | 9 | +0.4 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 9 | 11.6 | 10 | 13.7 | 10 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Dundee United | 9 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 12.9 | 12 | -0.9 |
| 10 | St. Mirren | 9 | 13.5 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 11 | Motherwell | 9 | 15.6 | 11 | 18.5 | 16 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 15.8 | 9 | 13.4 | 14 | 14.2 | 7 | -7.2 |