Updated 15 November 2026.
Rwanda host Mali at Stade Amahoro on Tuesday 17 November, kicking off at 7pm UK, in an Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications group game. It is the second meeting of the two sides in five days: Mali won the first 3-2 on Friday.
That result keeps Mali top of the group on 9 points from three wins, while Rwanda are 2nd on 6. Friday's game was a goal-filled one, but our model expects a tighter game this time around.
Mali have won all three of their group games, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Before the qualifiers they drew 0-0 with Russia in March and lost 2-0 to Iran in June, both friendlies, but the qualifying form has been clean: a 3-1 home win over Cape Verde, a 1-0 win away at Liberia, and then the 3-2 win over Rwanda.
Mali have scored 2.33 goals per game in qualifying and average 6.33 shots on target per game. They also win 6.67 corners a game. At the back they concede 1 a game and have kept a clean sheet in one of three.
Rwanda have won two of their three, and both wins came before Friday: a 3-1 home win over Liberia and a 2-1 win away at Cape Verde. Then came the defeat in Mali. They score 2.33 a game, level with Mali, but concede 1.67 a game and have yet to keep a clean sheet in qualifying. All three of Rwanda's group games have had both teams scoring and more than 2.5 goals.
Rwanda also pick up cards, averaging 3 per game in qualifying, with 16.67 fouls a game. Mali average 1 card a game.
Lassine Sinayoko, the Mali striker, has had a shot in each of his last three games at 3 a game, and a shot on target in each of those three as well, averaging 1.3. He also has a tackle in all three.
Kamory Doumbia has had at least one shot in three straight games, at 3.7 a game. Dorgeles Nene has also had a shot in each of his last three, averaging 2.3.
In midfield, Mamadou Sangaré has had a shot, a tackle and a foul in each of his last three games, averaging 4.3 tackles a game.
For Rwanda, Leroy Mickels has had a shot in three straight games, at 1 a game. Gilbert Byiringiro has made a tackle in three in a row at 1.7 a game.
We back Mali to win, and the bookmakers agree, with the best price at 1.67 on Mali at midnite. Rwanda are 5.25 and the draw is 3.5. Our model gives Mali a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Rwanda 21%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rwanda to win | 5.25 | 21% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 31% |
| Mali to win | 1.67 | 48% |
| Both teams to score | 2.2 | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.2 | 29% |
We predict a 0-1 win for Mali, the single likeliest scoreline at 18%. A 0-0 is next at 16%, and a draw overall is in play at 31%. We project 1.19 goals for Mali and 0.67 for Rwanda, which points to a lower-scoring game than Friday's, with over 1.5 goals at 55% and over 2.5 at 29%. We give Mali a 51% chance of a clean sheet.
Prediction: Rwanda 0-1 Mali.
Rwanda vs Mali kicks off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at Stade Amahoro. It is a Group Stage game in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications.
We predict Rwanda 0-1 Mali in this Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications game, a scoreline with an 18% chance. A 0-0 draw is next at 16%, and a draw overall is rated at 31%.
Mali are the favourites, with a 48% chance of winning in our model for the 17 November 2026 qualifier. The best bookmaker price is 1.67 on Mali, against 5.25 on Rwanda and 3.5 on the draw.
We give both teams to score a 34% chance in Rwanda vs Mali in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications on 17 November 2026. Both teams scored in all three of Rwanda's group games, but we project only 0.67 goals for Rwanda against 1.19 for Mali.
Mali are 1st on 9 points from 3 wins and Rwanda are 2nd on 6 points from 3 games in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications. Mali beat Rwanda 3-2 on 13 November 2026.
Lassine Sinayoko has had a shot on target in 3 straight games for Mali heading into the 17 November 2026 qualifier. Kamory Doumbia has also shot in 3 straight, averaging 3.7 shots a game.