Liverpool host Chelsea at Anfield in the Carabao Cup fourth round (the last 16) on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 20:00 UK, with a place in the quarter-finals at stake. Both clubs are likely to rotate: in the previous round Liverpool made 10 changes from their league side and Chelsea nine, and both have a league game within days, Chelsea against Manchester United on Saturday 31 October and Liverpool against Arsenal on Sunday 1 November.
Our model makes it close, with Liverpool 43% to win in 90 minutes, Chelsea 32% and the draw 25%, and 1-1 the likeliest single score. Those figures come from season-long numbers and assume each club's usual side, so a rotated tie is likelier to be looser and harder to call than they show.
Liverpool have won eight of their last ten in all competitions, drawing one and losing one, and have won their last four. The latest five are a 2-0 home win over Brighton on Sunday, a 4-3 home win over Villarreal in the Champions League on 20 October, a 2-1 win at Brentford on 17 October, a 6-3 win at LASK Linz in the Champions League on 14 October and a 3-0 home defeat to Manchester City on 11 October.
Chelsea have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten in all competitions. They lost 2-0 at home to Spurs on Saturday, after winning 2-0 at Everton on 17 October and 5-1 at home to Bournemouth on 10 October. Before those came a 3-0 defeat at Brentford on 18 September and a 2-2 draw at home to Hull on 12 September. In the cup this season they have averaged four goals a game and conceded 1.5.
Liverpool's previous cup tie was a 3-1 home win over Tottenham Hotspur on 15 September, with Giorgi Mamardashvili in goal and an XI of Joe Gomez, Ronald Araujo, Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong, Alexis Mac Allister, Trey Nyoni, James McConnell, Rio Ngumoha, Cody Gakpo and Lewis Koumas.
That was 10 changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 0-0 draw at home to Fulham on 12 September, and only Araujo kept his place. Four of the Tottenham XI (Mac Allister, Araujo, Kerkez and Gakpo) started Sunday's win over Brighton, so a rotated side on Wednesday is likely to mix league starters with squad players. Liverpool's next fixtures are Arsenal at home in the Premier League on Sunday 1 November and Fenerbahçe away in the Champions League on Wednesday 4 November.
Chelsea's previous cup tie was a 6-3 home win over Leeds United on 9 September, with Mike Penders in goal and an XI of Josh Acheampong, Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix, Pep ChavarrÃa, Malo Gusto, ValentÃn Barco, Estêvão, Jamie Gittens, Reggie Watson and Danny Welbeck.
That was nine changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal on 6 September; only Acheampong and Lacroix kept their place. Four of the Leeds XI (Acheampong, Colwill, Penders and Lacroix) started Saturday's defeat to Spurs, so a rotated side on Wednesday is likely to mix league starters with squad players. Chelsea's next fixtures are Manchester United at home in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October at 12:30 and a trip to Sunderland on Sunday 8 November.
The possible starting lineups further down already lean on last round's players: ten of Liverpool's started against Tottenham Hotspur and six of Chelsea's started against Leeds United.
Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Mamardashvili; Gomez, Araujo, Jacquet, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Nyoni, McConnell; Ngumoha, Koumas, Gakpo
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Penders; Palestra, Fofana, Colwill, Gusto; Barco, Lavia, Henderson; Neto, Welbeck, Estêvão
Bookmakers have Liverpool at 2.10 with Ladbrokes to win, Chelsea at 3.00 with bet365 and the draw at 4.00 with bet365. Our model leans the same way, narrowly, with the caveat above: its numbers are built on each club's season, not the changed sides we expect.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 2.10 (Ladbrokes) | 43% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 25% |
| Chelsea win | 3.00 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (Ladbrokes) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 (bet365) | 82% |
We predict Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea on the model's numbers. That is the likeliest single score at 11%, with 2-1 to Liverpool next at 9%, though we make Liverpool 43% to win against 32% for Chelsea. We project 1.66 goals for Liverpool and 1.4 for Chelsea, and Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 25% of our simulations against 19% for Chelsea.