AFC Bournemouth host Aston Villa at the Vitality Stadium in the Carabao Cup fourth round (the last 16) on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 19:45 UK, with a place in the quarter-finals at stake. Bournemouth have won their last four games without conceding, and Villa have won their last four too, the latest a 2-1 win over Manchester City on Saturday.
Both clubs are likely to rotate. Our model makes Bournemouth 49% to win in 90 minutes, Villa 26% and the draw 25%, with 1.73 goals projected for Bournemouth and 1.22 for Villa. Those figures come from season-long numbers and assume each club's usual side, so a rotated tie is likelier to be closer and looser than they show. Last round's XIs are set out below.
AFC Bournemouth have won four in a row, all without conceding: a 3-0 win at Manchester United on Sunday, a 3-0 home win over AC Milan in the Europa League on 22 October, a 2-0 win over Sunderland and a 3-0 win over Sturm Graz in the Europa League. That run follows a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea on 10 October, and Bournemouth have won six of their last ten in all competitions, with two draws and two defeats.
Aston Villa have won four in a row and seven of their last ten in all competitions, with two draws and one defeat. They beat Manchester City 2-1 on Saturday and Viking 3-1 in the Champions League on 21 October, won 1-0 at Newcastle and beat Fenerbahçe 6-0 in the Champions League, after a 2-2 draw with Brentford on 10 October.
Our projection, which assumes the usual sides, has Bournemouth on 16.09 shots, 5.19 of them on target, to Villa's 11.54 and 3.92, and has Bournemouth committing 13.63 fouls to Villa's 11.30.
Bournemouth's previous Carabao Cup tie is the guide to their side. On 8 September they beat Lincoln City 4-0 at home in the third round with Michele Di Gregorio in goal and an XI of James Hill, Bafodé Diakité, António Silva, Julio Soler, Lewis Cook, Ryan Christie, Ben Gannon-Doak, David Brooks, Justin Kluivert and Álvaro Rodríguez. That was eight changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 2-2 draw at Newcastle United on 5 September; Silva, Kluivert and Hill kept their place.
Four of that Lincoln XI, Silva, Kluivert, Cook and Hill, started Sunday's 3-0 win at Manchester United, so a rotated side on Wednesday is likely to mix regulars with players from the wider squad. Bournemouth's next two games after this are Leeds United at home in the Premier League at 3pm on Saturday 31 October and Sparta Praha away in the Europa League on Thursday 5 November.
Aston Villa's previous cup tie was a 3-1 win at Coventry City in the third round on 16 September, with Marco Bizot in goal and an XI of Tyrone Mings, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, John McGinn, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Matteo Ruggeri, Tammy Abraham, Ibrahim Mbaye, Lamare Bogarde, Ross Barkley and George Lawrence Hemmings. That was seven changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 2-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest on 12 September; Wan-Bissaka, McGinn, Barkley and Hemmings kept their place.
Only McGinn of that Coventry XI started Saturday's win over Manchester City, so the two line-ups shared one player. Their next two games after this are Fulham at home in the Premier League at 8pm on Saturday 31 October and FC Barcelona away in the Champions League on Tuesday 3 November.
The possible starting lineups further down already lean on last round's players: Bournemouth's is the same eleven that started against Lincoln City, and nine of Villa's started at Coventry City.
AFC Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Di Gregorio; Hill, Diakité, Silva, Soler; Cook, Christie; Gannon-Doak, Brooks, Kluivert; Rodríguez
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Cash, Mings, Harwood-Bellis, Maatsen; Bogarde, Barkley; Mbaye, McGinn, Hemmings; Abraham
Bookmakers have Bournemouth at 2.25 with Ladbrokes to win, Villa at 3.00 with bet365 and the draw at 3.60 with Coral. Our model also has Bournemouth ahead, with the caveat above: its numbers are built on both clubs' seasons, not the rotated sides we expect.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth win | 2.25 (Ladbrokes) | 49% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Coral) | 25% |
| Aston Villa win | 3.00 (bet365) | 26% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (Midnite) | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 (bet365) | 57% |
We predict 1-1 on the model's numbers. That is the likeliest single score at 11.6%, though we make Bournemouth 49% to win in 90 minutes, with 2-1 and 1-0 to Bournemouth the next likeliest scores. Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 30% of our simulations and Villa in 18%. A tie level after 90 minutes goes to a penalty shoot-out, and with both clubs likely to rotate the real game could be looser than those figures suggest.