Espanyol, 12th in La Liga, welcome Atlético Madrid to the RCDE Stadium on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 1pm UK. Atlético arrive second in the table and have won each of their last five matches, including a 2-1 win over Real Madrid and a 2-0 Champions League win against Man Utd on Tuesday. Espanyol have lost four of their eight league games and have not won in the league since a 2-0 win at Osasuna last month.
The home side do have one angle: they are involved in goals. Espanyol's matches have produced both teams scoring at the third-highest rate in the division, and Roberto Fernández has had at least two shots in each of his last eight games.
Espanyol sit 12th on 8 points from 8 games, with two wins, two draws and four defeats, and a goal difference of zero (11 scored, 11 conceded). Their latest outing was a 1-1 draw at Málaga on 9 October. Before that came a 1-3 home defeat to Elche and a 2-1 loss at Rayo. Both teams have scored in 75% of their games, the 3rd highest rate in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in 25%, the 8th highest. They also make the most fouls in La Liga, 17 a game, and pick up the 3rd most cards, though they have the fewest corners.
Atlético are 2nd on 19 points, with six wins, one draw and one defeat, and 18 goals scored against 8 conceded. They score the 3rd most goals per game (2.25) and concede the 4th fewest (1.00). Their last five league and European results read like this: a 2-0 win over Man Utd, a 2-1 win at Alavés, the 2-1 win over Real Madrid, a 4-0 win over Osasuna and a 3-0 win at Sociedad. They have the 3rd most shots on target per game (6.5), and 88% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in the division.
Espanyol possible starting lineup:
Fortuño; El Hilali, Riedel, Taillandier, Hartman; Lozano, Expósito; Dolan, Hernández, Zaragoza; Fernández
Atlético Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Le Normand, Grimaldo; Simeone, Cardoso, Koke, Barrios; Lookman, David
Roberto Fernández leads the division for consecutive games with two or more shots: eight in a row, averaging 2.5 a game. He is 1.44 at Ladbrokes to make it nine.
Edu Expósito has had a shot in all eight games this season and is 1.22 at bet365 to do it again. He has also made a tackle in each of his last four.
Jonathan David has had a shot on target in four straight games for Atlético. He is 1.73 at bet365.
Alejandro Grimaldo is a full-back with a striker's shot count, averaging 2.3 a game with at least two in four straight. He has also made a tackle in seven in a row.
Robin Le Normand ranks first in our model for fouls, at 2.75 for two or more, and 1.40 for one or more.
We back Atlético Madrid to win, available at 1.73 with bet365. Espanyol are 4.80 at Coral and the draw is 3.80 at bet365. Our model gives the visitors a 48% chance of winning, with the draw at 26% and Espanyol at 25%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol win | 4.80 (Coral) | 25% |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | 26% |
| Atlético Madrid win | 1.73 (bet365) | 48% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 51% |
1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Atlético more likely to win, and a draw is in play. Our projection has Espanyol on 1.11 goals and Atlético on 1.62, with both teams scoring in 55% of simulations. Atlético's shot count is projected at 5.15 on target against Espanyol's 4.02, so the player interest sits with the likes of David, Grimaldo and Expósito.
Our prediction: Espanyol 1-1 Atlético Madrid.