Preston North End host Millwall at Deepdale on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 3pm UK, with the hosts second from bottom. Preston have taken 4 points from 8 games and sit 23rd, while Millwall are 11th on 11 points and arrive with a handful of players on long runs of fouls and shots.
The home side have been involved in goals at both ends all season, which is why this one looks more open than the table suggests. Millwall have the stronger profile, and we make them the more likely winners.
Preston have won 1 of their 8 league games and lost 6, scoring 8 and conceding 15. Their 2-2 draw at QPR last time out followed a 0-1 home defeat to Lincoln, and before that came a 2-1 loss at Watford. Their one recent win was a 2-1 victory over Blackburn, sandwiched by a 1-3 home loss to Bristol City.
The numbers show a side that leaks and struggles to score. Preston average 1 goal a game, the 5th fewest in the division, and concede 1.88, the 5th most. They have yet to keep a clean sheet. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches, the 6th highest rate, and 75% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th highest.
Millwall have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3, with 15 goals scored and 15 conceded. They are unbeaten in two, a 2-2 draw with West Ham following a 2-2 draw at Middlesbrough. Before that came a 3-1 defeat at Blackburn, a 0-1 Carabao Cup loss to Newcastle and a 4-0 home win over Bolton.
They score 1.88 a game, the 6th most, and have kept clean sheets in 38% of their games, the 3rd highest rate. Every one of their matches has gone over 2.5 goals bar one: 88%, the highest figure in the Championship. Their foul count is the 6th most at 11.88 a game, while their cards come at 1.5 a game, the 5th fewest.
Preston North End possible starting lineup:
Iversen; Vukcevic, Clarke, Storey, Hughes; Mills, Leroy, Thompson; Devine, Lang, Kenny
Millwall possible starting lineup:
Marschall; Osei-Tutu, Cooper, Taylor, Sturge; Metcalfe, Mazou-Sacko, Sykes; Neghli, Dykes, Arconte
Jenson Metcalfe has committed a foul in all 8 of Millwall's league games, averaging 2.6 a game, the longest such run in the Championship. He is 1.18 at midnite to make it nine.
Lyndon Dykes has had a shot on target in four straight games and has taken two or more shots in each of them, averaging 2.5. He is 1.61 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target.
Taïryk Arconte has had a shot in each of his last seven games, averaging 2.3, and is 1.07 at bet365 to extend it.
Zak Sturge has fouled in seven straight, and the left-back is 1.33 at midnite to do so again. Camiel Neghli has found the target in four in a row and is 2.10 at Ladbrokes.
For Preston, Harry Clarke has committed two or more fouls in three straight games, and is 3.20 at midnite to make it four.
We back Millwall, the away side at 2.45 with midnite, and make them the likeliest winners at 44%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Preston North End win | 2.87 (Ladbrokes) | 30% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Ladbrokes) | 26% |
| Millwall win | 2.45 (midnite) | 44% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (midnite) | 81% |
We predict Preston North End 1-1 Millwall. A draw is in play, though we make Millwall the more likely winners. Goals look likely at both ends: both teams to score comes out at 60%, and Preston's goals against and Millwall's goals record both point that way. Millwall are the likelier side to keep a clean sheet, at 26% against 19% for Preston.
For a build, Dykes to have a shot on target, Sturge to foul and Mazou-Sacko to foul combine at 3.01. Dykes has done the first in each of his last five, and Mazou-Sacko has fouled in five straight. Referee Ben Speedie has had three games this season, averaging 3.67 yellow cards.