West Bromwich Albion host Birmingham City at The Hawthorns on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 12:30 UK time. The league table has West Brom 5th on 14 points and Birmingham 10th on 11, but the way the two sides get their results could hardly differ more: one of them grinds out narrow wins, the other cannot stop drawing.
Birmingham have scored in all but one of their games and have drawn five of their eight. West Brom have lost only twice and keep the third-fewest goals conceded per game in the division. Our model has the draw in play, and it is easy to see why.
West Brom have taken 14 points from eight, winning four, drawing two and losing two, with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. The latest result was a 1-0 defeat at Wolves on 20 September, and before that came a 1-1 draw with QPR. In between those two they won 1-0 at Derby and 1-0 against Watford, a reminder that almost nothing West Brom do is high-scoring.
That fits the numbers. They concede 1 goal a game, the 3rd fewest in the division, and have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their matches, the 7th highest rate. Only 38% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd lowest figure around. They also commit the 7th fewest fouls, at 10.13 a game.
Birmingham sit 10th with 11 points from eight: two wins, five draws and one defeat, with 12 scored and 11 against. Their latest outing was a 2-2 draw with Middlesbrough on 19 September, which followed a 2-1 win at Derby. Before that came a 2-1 loss at Norwich, a 2-2 draw with Wolves and a 1-1 draw with Southampton.
Birmingham's matches are the opposite of West Brom's. Both teams have scored in 88% of them, the 3rd highest rate in the Championship, and 75% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th highest. They average 1.5 goals scored, the 9th most, and win 4.25 shots on target a game, the 12th most. They also commit 12 fouls a game, the 5th most.
The Championship table is tight enough that a point here would suit neither side much, but it would hardly be a surprise.
West Bromwich Albion possible starting lineup:
O'Leary; Phillips, Styles, Campbell, Townsend; Molumby, Whitwell, Diakité; Price, Heggebø, Morgan
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Beadle; Klarer, Neumann, Cochrane, Osayi-Samuel; Iwata, SolÃs, Vicente; Stansfield, Vázquez
Ousmane Diakité is the most reliable name in the West Brom side. He has made at least one tackle in all eight league games and had a shot in each of the last seven. He is 1.50 at bet365 for a shot and sits 3rd in the division for his tackling run.
Callum Styles has made two or more tackles in five straight games and averages 5.2 a game over that spell, 2nd best in the competition. Bet365 have him at 1.30 for two or more. Jimmy Morgan has had a shot in six consecutive games, and Isaac Price has hit the target in each of his last five, at 1.62 for another.
For Birmingham, Jay Stansfield is the main threat. He has had two or more shots in six straight games, averaging 2.7, and is 1.53 at bet365 to make it seven. He has also had a shot on target in four in a row, at 1.85 with Ladbrokes.
Carlos Vicente has managed a shot in each of his last five, with games of five and four in that run. Jhon SolÃs is the one our model likes in the foul market: we rank him 2nd likeliest for a foul in this fixture, and he is 1.36 for one or more.
Our model gives West Brom a slight edge, with the home side at 38.7% to win, the draw at 29.9% and Birmingham at 31.4%. The bookmakers agree on the favourite: West Brom are 2.37 at Ladbrokes, the draw 3.40 at Ladbrokes and Birmingham 3.00 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 2.37 (Ladbrokes) | 38.7% |
| Draw | 3.40 (Ladbrokes) | 29.9% |
| Birmingham win | 3.00 (bet365) | 31.4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 48.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 (bet365) | 41.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 69.0% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 14.1%. We still make West Brom slightly more likely to win the match than Birmingham, but a draw is clearly in play. The model expects 1.25 goals from West Brom and 1.10 from Birmingham, and a 1-0 home win is next at 10.9%, with 0-0 at 10.5%.
The model gives West Brom 4.40 shots on target to Birmingham's 3.55. Birmingham are projected to commit 12.31 fouls to West Brom's 9.78, and referee Gavin Ward has averaged 3.25 yellow cards across his four games this season. For a player angle that combines form and price, Price and Iwata to have a shot, with Vicente and Cochrane in the same bet builder, comes to 4.29 combined, and each of those four players has hit that mark in all of his last five games.