Middlesbrough host Cardiff City at the Riverside Stadium on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 12:30 UK, and the gap between the sides is as wide as the table suggests. Boro are 2nd in the Championship, Cardiff are 19th, and both teams have scored in eight of the ten games each side has played, so goals at both ends are on the cards.
The Welsh side arrive with more bite than their position implies. They are first in the division for shots on target and for corners, and they hit Watford for five on Tuesday. Boro, meanwhile, went to Stoke the same night and won a 3-2 thriller.
Middlesbrough have 21 points from 10 games (six wins, three draws, one defeat) and sit 2nd in the Championship table. They have won three of their last five and been beaten once in the ten. The latest win came on Tuesday, Stoke 2-3 M'Boro, and before that they edged M'Boro 1-0 Wolves. Earlier in the run came a wild M'Boro 4-3 Norwich and a pair of 2-2 draws, against Millwall and at Birmingham.
That is a side that scores and concedes. Boro average 2 goals a game, the 3rd most in the division, and are the 3rd most prolific for shots on target at 5.6 a game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches, the 2nd highest rate in the league, and 70% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals. They also give away few fouls (the 6th fewest) and collect few cards (the 2nd fewest).
Cardiff City have 10 points from 10 games, with two wins, four draws and four defeats, and they have lost five of their last ten. The recent picture is mixed: a 5-1 home win over Watford on Tuesday, a 2-1 defeat at Blackburn the Saturday before, and a 3-1 win over Charlton before that. They have not kept a clean sheet all season.
Where Cardiff stand out is volume. They average 6.4 shots on target a game, the most in the Championship, and 7.5 corners, also the most. They also score 1.6 a game, the 8th most.
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Vitek; Brittain, Phillips, Malanda, Ayling; Berhalter, Morris; Cozier-Duberry, Sarmiento, Borges; Lankshear
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Trott; Ng, Fish, Osho, Bagan; Robertson, Colwill; Tanner, Ashford, Moylan; Willock
We back Middlesbrough to win, and they are 1.57 with Coral. Cardiff are 5.5 with bet365 and the draw is 4.8 at Coral. The bookmakers and our model agree on the favourite, so the interest sits in the player markets, where Cardiff's shooters and Lankshear for Boro stand out.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 1.57 (Coral) | 66% |
| Draw | 4.80 (Coral) | 19% |
| Cardiff City win | 5.50 (bet365) | 15% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (Coral) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 70% |
We predict Middlesbrough 2-1 Cardiff City. We project Boro at 2.49 goals and Cardiff at 1.13, with both teams to score at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 70%. Cardiff have scored in eight of their ten, but have also conceded in all of them, and they travel to a side with the 3rd best shots-on-target record in the league. A 1-1 draw is in play at 8%, though 2-0 and 2-1 both rank above it among the likeliest scorelines.
On the player side, the model has Adilson Malanda likelier to take a shot than his price suggests, and he is 2.38 for one or more. For Cardiff, Robertson has had a shot in ten of ten and is 1.73, while Tanner is the same price for two or more after six straight games of it.