Watford host Charlton Athletic at Vicarage Road on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 12:30 UK. It is a Championship game between a side in freefall and one that has made drawing an art form: Watford have lost five of their last six, while Charlton Athletic have drawn four of their last five.
The hosts sit 22nd with eight points from ten. Charlton are 13th on 14, and a point here would be the kind of result they have been collecting all autumn.
Watford's week has been grim. They lost 5-1 at Cardiff on Tuesday, three days after a 0-4 home defeat to Burnley. Before that came a 1-0 loss at Bristol City and a 1-2 home defeat to Stoke. The last win was 2-1 against Preston on 8 September. They have conceded 19 goals in ten games, and per game that is 1.9, the 5th most in the division. At the other end they score 0.8 a game, the 3rd fewest, and win the 2nd fewest corners.
Charlton have been harder to beat than to enjoy. They drew 2-2 at Burnley on Tuesday and 1-1 at home to Bristol City the weekend before. Before that came a 3-1 defeat at Cardiff and two goalless home draws, against Portsmouth and QPR. Their goals are thin, with one a game the 5th fewest, but they have kept a clean sheet in 30% of games, the 4th highest rate in the league.
The Championship table has nine places and six points between these two.
Watford possible starting lineup:
Ravaglia; Traoré, Keben, Pollock, Zemura; Kyprianou, Kayembe, Payero; Maamma, Mavididi, Boadu
Charlton Athletic possible starting lineup:
Okonkwo; Ramsay, Jones, Koumetio, McNamara; Coventry, Skipp, Bell; Campbell, Grant, Leaburn
Conor Coventry has committed a foul in each of his ten games this season, the longest such run in the Championship, and has also made a tackle in all ten. He averages 1.8 fouls a game, and a foul from him is 1.20 at midnite.
Mattie Pollock is the Watford name for the defensive markets. He has made at least one tackle in all ten games, averaging 1.3, and that is 1.33 at bet365.
Oliver Skipp has made three or more tackles in each of his last three, in a run that averages 4.7 a game. Another three-tackle game is 2.20 at bet365.
Karlan Grant has had a shot in six straight games, at 1.8 a game, and is 1.08 at bet365 to keep it going.
Edo Kayembe has fouled in four straight and made two or more tackles in each of his last three, averaging 2.3 a game. Two tackles again is 3.40 at bet365.
We back Watford to take it, and they are 2.38 with midnite. Charlton are 2.90 at coral and the draw is 3.40 at ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 2.38 (midnite) | 43% |
| Draw | 3.40 (ladbrokes) | 28% |
| Charlton Athletic win | 2.90 (coral) | 30% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 (bet365) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 49% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Watford slightly more likely to win than Charlton. We project 1.45 goals for Watford against 1.17 for Charlton, and the hosts are likelier to keep a clean sheet, at 31%, than Charlton, at 23%.
Beyond the result, the interest is in the player markets: Coventry, Pollock and Skipp all arrive with unbroken runs. The referee, Thomas Bramall, has averaged 2.25 yellow cards across four games this season.