Updated 29 October 2026.
Millwall host Derby County at The Den on Saturday 31 October, with kick-off at 3pm UK. The Championship game pairs 13th-placed Millwall, on 15 points from 12 games, with 23rd-placed Derby, on 7. Derby have scored 10 goals in 12 games and kept one clean sheet. We make Millwall 56% to win, and 1-1 is the likeliest single score.
Millwall sit 13th in the Championship with four wins, three draws and five defeats, and a goal difference of minus one (19 scored, 20 conceded). They score 1.58 goals a game, the 8th most in the league, and concede 1.67, also the 8th most. Their last five Championship games have brought a win, two draws and two defeats. They drew 2-2 with West Ham, won 1-0 at Preston, lost 1-0 at home to Swansea, shared a 2-2 draw with Lincoln and then went down 2-1 at Portsmouth last Saturday.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Millwall's league games, the joint highest rate in the division, and they have kept a clean sheet in a third of them, the 2nd highest rate.
Derby are 23rd with one win, four draws and seven defeats. They concede 1.75 a game, the 5th most in the league, and score 0.83, the 3rd fewest. Their last five Championship games brought three draws and two defeats: a 1-1 draw at Burnley, a 1-1 draw with Wrexham, a 4-1 defeat at QPR, a 1-0 home loss to Stoke and a 1-1 draw at Sheffield United last Saturday.
Derby commit 12.67 fouls a game, the 2nd most in the Championship, and pick up 2.58 cards a game, also the 2nd most.
Millwall possible starting lineup:
Crocombe; Sturge, Crama, Cooper, Taylor; Metcalfe, Cundle; Neghli, Mazou-Sacko, Lisbie; Dykes
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Widell Zetterström; Ward, Robinson, Nyambe, Hedges; Ozoh, Clark; Fuseini, Szmodics, Brewster; Morris
Jenson Metcalfe has made at least one tackle in all 12 of Millwall's Championship games, averaging 2.3 a match.
Lyndon Dykes has had a shot in nine straight games, and a shot is 1.05 at bet365. Camiel Neghli is on eight in a row, priced at 1.14 with the same firm.
On the Derby side, David Ozoh has made at least one tackle in eight straight games, averaging 3.6 over that run. He has also committed two or more fouls in five consecutive matches, and that is 1.70 at Midnite. Carlton Morris has had a shot in four in a row, with 1.20 at bet365.
At the back for Millwall, Jake Cooper has committed two or more fouls in five straight games, averaging 2.6 a match, and that is 3.10 at Midnite.
We make Millwall 56% to win, with the draw at 24% and a Derby win at 20%. The best price on Millwall is 1.75 with Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 1.75 (Coral) | 56% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Coral) | 24% |
| Derby County win | 5.00 (bet365) | 20% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (Midnite) | 79% |
We predict 1-1, the likeliest single score at 11%, though we make Millwall 56% to win. We project 1.87 goals for the hosts and 1.04 for Derby, with Millwall taking 5.43 shots on target to Derby's 3.45.
Millwall have a 35% chance of a clean sheet, and Derby only 15%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 56%, and both teams scoring at 55%.
Dykes and Neghli arrive on active shot runs, and for longer prices Tristan Crama has 2+ shots at 3.25 and Jake Cooper a shot on target at 5.00.
Millwall vs Derby County in the 2026/27 Championship kicks off at 3pm UK on Saturday 31 October 2026 at The Den. Millwall are 13th in the table on 15 points and Derby County are 23rd on 7 points, after 12 games each.
For Millwall vs Derby County in the 2026/27 Championship we predict 1-1, the likeliest single score at 11%, though we make Millwall 56% to win, with the draw at 24% and a Derby County win at 20%. We project 1.87 goals for Millwall and 1.04 for Derby County.
Millwall are the favourites for Millwall vs Derby County in the 2026/27 Championship, with our model giving them a 56% chance of a win against 24% for a draw and 20% for Derby County. Millwall are 13th in the table and Derby County are 23rd.
We give both teams a 55% chance of scoring in Millwall vs Derby County in the 2026/27 Championship, with Millwall 35% to keep a clean sheet and Derby County 15%. Over 2.5 goals is at 56%, and 75% of Millwall's league games have gone over 2.5.
Ahead of Millwall vs Derby County in the 2026/27 Championship, Lyndon Dykes has had a shot in 9 straight games and Camiel Neghli in 8, while Jenson Metcalfe has made at least one tackle in all 12 of Millwall's league games, averaging 2.3 a match.
Millwall are 13th in the 2026/27 Championship with 15 points from 12 games, from four wins, three draws and five defeats, ahead of Saturday's game against Derby County, who are 23rd with 7 points from one win, four draws and seven defeats.
For the 3pm UK kick-off on 31 October 2026 in the 2026/27 Championship, Millwall's possible starting lineup against Derby County is Crocombe; Sturge, Crama, Cooper, Taylor; Metcalfe, Cundle; Neghli, Mazou-Sacko, Lisbie; Dykes. Derby County's possible starting lineup is Widell Zetterström; Ward, Robinson, Nyambe, Hedges; Ozoh, Clark; Fuseini, Szmodics, Brewster; Morris.