Updated 29 October 2026.
Motherwell host St. Mirren at Fir Park on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 3pm UK, in a Scottish Premiership game between two sides who have lost more league games than they have won. Motherwell are 10th, St. Mirren 7th, and the gap between them is five points. The hosts have lost six of their 11 league games and won two, while the visitors have lost five and won four.
The Scottish Premiership table has Motherwell on 9 points from 11 and St. Mirren on 14. We lean towards the home side, with Motherwell given a 53% chance of the win, a 24% chance of a draw and 23% for St. Mirren.
Motherwell have taken one point from their last five league games, and it came on Wednesday, when they drew 2-2 at St. Johnstone. Before that came a 0-2 home loss to Hearts, a 3-2 defeat at Kilmarnock and a 0-2 home loss to Celtic. Their problem has been at the back: they concede 1.82 goals a game, the 2nd most in the division, and have kept a clean sheet in only 18% of their matches, the 6th lowest rate.
The attack has held up better than the defence. Motherwell have scored 13 goals in 11 games, 1.18 a game, the 6th most in the division. They also have the 5th most shots on target in the league at 5.09 a game, and 64% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate in the division.
St. Mirren drew 1-1 with Hibernian on Wednesday, four days after a 2-1 home win over Dundee. Before that came heavy defeats: 3-1 at Aberdeen and 5-0 at Hearts. They concede 1.73 goals a game, the 3rd most in the division, yet have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their games, the 3rd highest rate. They create little: 1.09 goals a game is the 4th fewest and 3.91 shots on target is the 6th fewest.
The visitors are the most booked team in the division at 2.82 cards a game, and the 2nd most frequent fouling side at 13.45 a game. Motherwell commit the 3rd fewest fouls in the division at 10.36 a game.
Motherwell possible starting lineup:
Paulsen; Sparrow, McGhee, Moormann, Girdwood-Reich; Longelo, Levitt, Maswanhise; Said, Hodge, Palmer-Houlden
St. Mirren possible starting lineup:
Chapman; Fraser, Gogic, Fieldson, Ramsay; Carr, Phillips, John; Thomas, Sule, Mochrie
Joe Hodge has made at least one tackle in nine straight games, averaging 3 a game, and has had a shot in five straight. He is 1.33 at bet365 to have a shot again.
Luke Thomas has made at least one tackle in 11 straight games, averaging 1.8 a game.
Alex Gogic has committed a foul in ten straight games and made a tackle in seven, averaging 2 tackles a game. Midnite have him at 1.29 for another foul.
Ryan Carr has been fouling twice or more in five consecutive games, averaging 3 a game, and is 1.25 at Midnite to make it six.
Calvin Ramsay has had a shot in four straight games and is 1.62 at bet365 to extend that. Declan John has also had a shot in four straight games, and Ladbrokes make him 1.85.
We back Motherwell to win at 1.80 with Ladbrokes. We project 1.78 goals for them against 1.10 for St. Mirren, with 5.40 shots on target to the visitors' 3.40.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 1.80 (Ladbrokes) | 53% |
| Draw | 3.90 (bet365) | 24% |
| St. Mirren win | 4.00 (Ladbrokes) | 23% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 55% |
Our predicted score is 1-1, the likeliest single scoreline at 12%, though we make Motherwell the likelier winner overall at 53% to 23%. A 2-1 home win is next at 10%, followed by 1-0 at 9%.
We give Motherwell a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, against 17% for St. Mirren, and a 79% chance of at least two goals in the game. Statz prediction: Motherwell 1-1 St. Mirren.
The 2026/27 Scottish Premiership game at Fir Park kicks off at 3pm UK on Saturday 31 October 2026, the 12th league game of the season for both Motherwell and St. Mirren. Motherwell are 10th and the visitors 7th in the 12-team table.
We predict a 1-1 draw in the 2026/27 Scottish Premiership game at Fir Park on 31 October 2026, the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Motherwell the likelier winner at 53%, with 24% for a draw and 23% for St. Mirren. A 2-1 home win is next at 10%.
Motherwell are favourites to win the 2026/27 Scottish Premiership game at Fir Park on 31 October 2026, with our model giving them a 53% chance against 24% for a draw and 23% for St. Mirren, and the bookmakers also make the hosts favourites.
We put both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55% in the 2026/27 Scottish Premiership game at Fir Park on 31 October 2026, with 1.78 goals projected for Motherwell and 1.10 for St. Mirren. Some 64% of Motherwell's league games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate in the division.
Before the 2026/27 Scottish Premiership game at Fir Park on 31 October 2026, Motherwell are 10th of 12 on 9 points from 11 games, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats, and St. Mirren are 7th on 14 points from 11. That is a gap of 5 points.
For the 2026/27 Scottish Premiership game at Fir Park on 31 October 2026, Joe Hodge has made a tackle in 9 straight games for Motherwell, and Luke Thomas has made a tackle in 11 straight games for St. Mirren. Alex Gogic has fouled in 10 straight games.
For the 3pm UK kick-off on 31 October 2026 at Fir Park in the 2026/27 Scottish Premiership, Motherwell's possible starting lineup is Paulsen; Sparrow, McGhee, Moormann, Girdwood-Reich; Longelo, Levitt, Maswanhise; Said, Hodge, Palmer-Houlden. For the visitors, St. Mirren's possible starting lineup is Chapman; Fraser, Gogic, Fieldson, Ramsay; Carr, Phillips, John; Thomas, Sule, Mochrie.