Leyton Orient host Plymouth Argyle at 15:00 UK on Saturday 3 October at Brisbane Road.
This is the most accurately priced fixture of the weekend. Across the result, both teams to score and both goals lines, no selection differs from the model by more than 1.3 points. That is rare enough to be worth saying out loud.
Orient drew 0-0 at Mansfield last Saturday after beating Stevenage 1-0, and before that lost 2-3 at home to Wycombe. They defend well, ranking fifth of 24 for goals conceded at 1.13 a game and third for clean sheet rate at 50 per cent, and they create little: twenty-first of 24 for corners. Our League One expected points table has them scoring 6.5 goals more than their chances were worth, which is the biggest finishing over-performance in the division.
Plymouth lost 1-0 at Burton last Saturday, which ended a run of a 4-2 win at Blackpool, a 3-0 against Barnsley and a 3-2 win at Doncaster. They are fifth of 24 for scoring at 1.75 a game and seventh for shots on target at 4.88, and the expected points table has them a point and a half ahead of their chances with a positive expected goal difference. Of the two, they are the side whose record most closely matches its performances. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.73 goals for Plymouth and 1.22 for Orient, a combined 2.95, the highest total of the three priced League One fixtures.
Then it agrees with the market about all of it. Plymouth to win is rated 48.5 per cent against a margin-free implied 48.3. Orient are 26.2 against 27.1. Over 2.5 goals is 56.7 against 56.3. Both teams to score is the widest gap on the page at 58.9 against 57.6, and 1.3 points is not a gap worth acting on.
That is itself the finding. When a model and a market this far apart in method land on the same numbers in every market, the honest conclusion is that the fixture is priced and the interest lies elsewhere on the page.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Scott Oldham, with no completed matches in our database this season, so there is no card or foul average to read.
Where this fixture is legible is the foul counts, and Plymouth supply most of them. W. Evans has committed a foul in eight straight games, the longest active streak in either squad, and A. Hartridge in five straight. For Orient, Jaze Kabia has fouled in seven straight and Idris El Mizouni has made two or more tackles in three.
At the other end, Aribim Pepple has had a shot on target in five straight. Orient are seventh of 24 for cards at 2.14 a game, which is the one team number on this page that stands out. League One is not priced for player props, so the live fixture page is where these update.
Plymouth are the marginal favourites and the model agrees with the price to within two tenths of a point. There is no edge here in the match markets and it would be dishonest to manufacture one.
The read is an open game by League One standards, with the better-performing side slightly favoured, and the fouls and tackles carrying more of the interest than the result. Orient's finishing has run a long way ahead of their chances, and that is the number to watch across October rather than on Saturday alone.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.