Leeds United host Crystal Palace at 14:00 UK on Sunday 20 September. Leeds United are third with eight points and unbeaten at Elland Road.
In a round the model wants almost entirely quiet - five unders and three clean-sheet calls across ten fixtures - this is the exception.
Crystal Palace have conceded eleven goals in four league games from 2.46 expected goals against per match, comfortably the worst defensive numbers in the Premier League. They have still scored six. The recent run tells the story: beaten 4-1 at home by Manchester City, a 3-2 win at Fulham, a 3-2 home defeat to Ipswich Town, then 3-0 and 4-0 wins over Middlesbrough and Lech Poznan in the cups. Nine of their last ten competitive games have produced three goals or more.
Leeds United beat Newcastle United 4-1 on Monday night and have had goals at both ends in four of their last five. Seven scored and three conceded in the league, from 1.45 expected goals created and 1.45 conceded - balanced numbers behind a good start. They drew 1-1 with Brentford and 1-1 at Brighton and Hove Albion before the Newcastle United win, and were beaten 6-3 at Chelsea in the cup, which is the one game that got away from them entirely.
The head to head is split: 0-0 at Selhurst Park in March, but Leeds United won the reverse 4-1 in December and Crystal Palace won 5-1 at Elland Road in 2023.
The model makes both teams to score 59 percent at 7/10, 4.1 points clear of its price, and over 2.5 goals 58 percent at 8/11, 3.0 clear. Both teams to score is our Premier League betting predictions selection and the only goals call of the round outside Friday night's opener.
The case is Crystal Palace's defence rather than either attack. A side conceding 2.46 expected goals a game does not keep clean sheets, and Leeds United have scored in every home league game this season. Crystal Palace to win at 7/2 is also rated above its price at 25 percent, for anyone who fancies the away side on the evidence of that Fulham result.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Adam Herczeg, 3.50 cards and 21.91 fouls per game across 34 matches - the quietest Premier League appointment of the weekend on cards, and a reason not to chase the booking markets here. The full weekend list is in our Referee Watch.
The league-wide defensive table is on the Premier League xG table, where Crystal Palace's minus 5.6 expected goal difference is the worst in the division. Per-90 player numbers are on the Premier League player stats page, and today's cross-match slips are on the Daily Acca, which carries a settled public record of every one.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Leeds United have been solid at home without being watertight, and Crystal Palace cannot keep anyone out - eleven conceded in four, from numbers that say it should have been worse. The goals should come at both ends, which is what the model says and what the season so far says too.
Prediction: Leeds United 2-1 Crystal Palace.
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