Manchester City host Sunderland at 14:00 UK on Sunday 20 September. Manchester City are second on twelve points, level with Arsenal, and have won five in a row.
Sunderland have been better than their fourteenth place suggests, but this is a hard afternoon to be improving.
Manchester City have conceded two goals in four league games at 0.68 expected goals against per match - the second-best defensive record in England behind Arsenal. The run: 4-1 at Crystal Palace, 1-0 against Coventry City, 2-0 at Porto in the Champions League, 1-0 in the Manchester derby, and 5-0 against Norwich City in the cup on Wednesday. Only one of those five had goals at both ends.
Sunderland have four points and a decent set of numbers: 1.63 expected goals created a game, 1.35 conceded, which is mid-table rather than relegation. They beat Fulham 1-0, drew at Brentford, lost 2-0 at home to Arsenal and beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 in the Europa League on Wednesday. Goals at both ends in one of their last five.
The two met twice last season: 0-0 at the Stadium of Light and 3-0 to Manchester City at home.
The model makes no goals at both ends 54 percent at 4/5, 2.3 points clear, and under 2.5 goals 45 percent at 11/8, 5.3 clear. The clean sheet is our Premier League betting predictions selection; the under is the bigger edge if you want the longer price.
Manchester City at 1/5 or shorter is unbackable and the model does not rate it. What it does rate is Sunderland failing to score, which four of their last five say is likely and the City defensive record supports.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Robert Jones, 4.20 cards and 23.40 fouls per game across 30 matches - one of the busier appointments this weekend, and worth noting if you are looking at a card market in a game the result may settle early.
Both defensive records are on the Premier League xG table. Per-90 player numbers are on the Premier League player stats page, and today's slips with a settled public record are on the Daily Acca.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Manchester City have conceded twice all season and Sunderland have scored in one of their last five. The result is not in question; the clean sheet is where the price is.
Prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Sunderland.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.