Liverpool welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Anfield on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 14:00 UK, and the visitors arrive with the league's best scoring and defensive records. Brighton sit 3rd on 16 points from seven games, with 23 goals scored and only 5 conceded. Liverpool are 5th on 12 points.
Brighton are four points ahead of Liverpool in the Premier League table, but we still make Liverpool the more likely winner, at 44% to 30%.
Liverpool have won four of their last five in all competitions, but the one they lost was a heavy one: a 3-0 home defeat to Man City on 11 October. They answered with a 6-3 win at LASK Linz, a 2-1 win at Brentford and a 4-3 home win over Villarreal on Tuesday. Those three games brought 12 Liverpool goals and 7 conceded.
In the league, Liverpool have scored 9 and conceded 8 in seven games. They rank 3rd for clean sheets at 43%, and they average 5 shots on target a game, the 5th most, and 13.86 fouls a game, the 2nd most.
Brighton have not lost in their last eight games in all competitions. They beat Arsenal 3-0 in September, won 2-0 at Sunderland, and then put 5 past Palace on 18 October. They followed that with a 0-0 draw at Jablonec in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, so they play on Sunday after a European trip.
Brighton average 3.29 goals a game, the most in the league, and concede 0.71, the fewest. They have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their league games, the highest rate in the division, and lead on shots on target too, at 6 a game.
Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Araujo, van Dijk, Jacquet, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Barcola, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak
Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Verbruggen; Kadıoğlu, Dunk, Vuskovic, Boscagli, De Cuyper; Groß, Ayari; Andrés, Gómez; Kostoulas
Alexander Isak has had a shot on target in six straight games and at least two shots in each of those six, averaging 2.8 a game. He is 1.44 at bet365 for a shot on target and 1.25 for two or more shots.
Florian Wirtz has taken a shot in all seven league games, averaging 2.1. He is 1.73 for two or more shots, and we rank him 2nd in the match for that.
Charalampos Kostoulas leads Brighton's attack and has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging 2.6. Yasin Ayari has managed two or more shots in six in a row, averaging 2.7, and is 1.75 at Ladbrokes to do it again.
Pascal Groß has committed a foul in seven straight games, averaging 1.9, and has also had a shot in six in a row. The fouls market on him is 1.50 at Ladbrokes.
We make Liverpool the more likely winner at 44%, with Brighton on 30% and the draw on 26%. Liverpool are 2.10 at bet365 to win, Brighton are 3.40 and the draw is 3.80.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 2.10 (bet365) | 44% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Coral) | 26% |
| Brighton win | 3.40 (bet365) | 30% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (Ladbrokes) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 54% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Liverpool the more likely winner. We project 1.58 goals for Liverpool and 1.27 for Brighton, and 2-1 to Liverpool is the next most likely score at 9%. We give both teams to score a 58% chance, and Brighton have scored in four of their last five matches in all competitions, though Liverpool have conceded in four of their last five.
For player markets, Virgil van Dijk is 5.00 for two or more fouls, and we rank him 2nd in the match for that.