Roma welcome Cagliari to the Stadio Olimpico on Tuesday 27 October, with kick-off at 19:45 UK. The hosts are 3rd in Serie A and have yet to lose a league game, while Cagliari sit 9th and have scored just six goals all season. Roma have kept a clean sheet in five of their eight league games, the highest rate in the division.
Roma have 18 points from eight games, with five wins and three draws and 19 goals scored and six conceded. They average 2.38 goals a game, the 2nd most in the league, and let in only 0.75, the 2nd fewest. Their last league outing was a 3-3 draw at Napoli on Saturday, which followed a 4-0 win over Slovan in the Champions League and a 2-0 win over Genoa before that. The one recent defeat was a 3-4 loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League on 14 October.
Roma also create plenty. They average 5.75 shots on target a game, the 5th most, and 5.88 corners, the 3rd most, and our model expects around 19 shots from them on Tuesday.
Cagliari have 13 points from eight games, with four wins, one draw and three defeats. They have lost their last two: a 0-2 home loss to Bologna on Saturday and a 4-0 defeat at Monza on 19 October. Before those came a 1-1 draw with Juventus. Their last two wins came away from home in September, at Udinese and Atalanta. Goals are scarce: at 0.75 a game they have the 4th fewest, and they are 4th fewest for shots on target too. Both teams to score has landed in only a quarter of their games.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Rensch, Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; Cristante, de Roon, Pisilli; Soulé, Wesley, Malen
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Caprile; Zé Pedro, RodrÃguez, Obert, Deiola; Winks, Adopo, Romano; Maldini, Massolin, Mendy
Donyell Malen has had two or more shots in seven straight games, averaging 3.7 a game over the run, and is 1.03 at bet365 to keep it going. Bryan Cristante has had two or more shots in four straight games, with the 2+ shots price at 2.00 with Ladbrokes. He has also made a tackle in six in a row.
Marten de Roon has made at least one tackle in five straight games, averaging two a game across them.
For Cagliari, Paul Mendy has committed two or more fouls in six straight games, averaging 2.3 across them, and is 1.53 at midnite to make it seven. Centre-back Juan RodrÃguez has made a tackle in all eight of his games this season, averaging 1.6 a game.
Our model backs Roma, who are 1.35 with Ladbrokes to win. We give them a 70% chance, with the draw at 20% and a Cagliari win at 10%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Roma win | 1.35 (Ladbrokes) | 70% |
| Draw | 5.25 (Coral) | 20% |
| Cagliari win | 9.50 (bet365) | 10% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 (Ladbrokes) | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 51% |
We predict a 2-0 Roma win, which is the likeliest single scoreline at 14%, just ahead of 1-0 at 13%. We expect Roma to score about two goals and Cagliari fewer than one, and we give Roma a 52% chance of keeping a clean sheet. A draw is 20% overall, and 1-1 is only the fourth likeliest score.
For a player bet builder, we pair Cristante for a shot, Mario Hermoso for a shot, Wesley for a foul and Mendy for two fouls. Each of the four has hit that mark in every one of his last five games.