Sassuolo and Lazio meet at the MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore on Tuesday 27 October, with kick-off at 17:30 UK. Lazio are unbeaten after eight games and have conceded only five goals. Sassuolo, 14th, have conceded 16, have lost their last two and are winless in four.
Lazio sit 2nd on 22 points from eight, with seven wins and a draw. Sassuolo have eight points from the same number of games, which leaves them 14 points behind and 12 places lower in the Serie A table. It is the first head-to-head meeting between the two this season.
Sassuolo lost 2-0 at Como on 24 October, went down 4-2 at Frosinone on 16 October (Frosinone 4-2 Sassuolo) and drew 1-1 at home to AC Milan before that (Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan). Their last win was a 3-2 home win over Juventus on 13 September (Sassuolo 3-2 Juventus). They have won two of eight, drawn two and lost four.
Their games produce goals at both ends. Both teams have scored in 88% of Sassuolo's matches, the highest in the division, and they average 2 goals against, the 5th most. They have no clean sheets this season. Going forward they are healthier: 5.63 shots on target per game is the 6th most in Serie A, and 75% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 4th highest.
Lazio's form is close to flawless. They won 2-1 against Parma on 24 October (Lazio 2-1 Parma), won 3-0 at Juventus on 18 October (Juventus 0-3 Lazio) and beat Monza 3-1 on 11 October (Lazio 3-1 Monza). Their only dropped points came in a 2-2 draw with Milan on 12 September (Lazio 2-2 AC Milan).
Lazio concede 0.63 goals a game, the fewest in Serie A, and have kept a clean sheet in half their matches, the 2nd highest rate. They also score freely, at 2 a game, the 4th most, and average 5.5 corners a game, the 7th most.
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Turati; Van der Brempt, Caleta-Car, Candé, Obrador; Matic, Adžić; Berardi, DomÃnguez, Bakola; Bowie
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Mandas; Floriani Mussolini, Provstgaard, Sutalo, Tavares; Belahyane, Frattesi, Taylor; Isaksen, Zaccagni, Noslin
Gustav Isaksen has had 3+ shots in three straight games and has averaged 3.8 over his last five, with 2 or more in every one of them. He is 1.18 at bet365 for 2+ shots.
Romano Floriani Mussolini has made at least one tackle in all eight of Lazio's games this season, averaging 2 a game, and the right-back is 1.17 at bet365 to extend that run. On the other flank, Nuno Tavares has made a tackle in six straight.
Domenico Berardi has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging 1.9, and a tackle in seven straight too. He is 1.08 at bet365 for a shot and 1.06 for a tackle.
Darryl Bakola has made 2+ tackles in four straight games, averaging 3.5 across them. He is 1.44 at bet365 for 2+.
Fali Candé has committed a foul in each of his last five, with 7 across them. Candé is 1.33 at bet365 for 1+ fouls, and our model rates him among the likelier foulers on the pitch.
Lazio are favourites at 2.20 with midnite, and we make them 38% to win. Sassuolo are 3.40 at bet365 and the draw is 3.60 with Ladbrokes. Both teams to score is 1.57 at bet365, which fits Sassuolo's record. Over 2.5 goals is 1.67 and over 1.5 is 1.20, both at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 3.40 (bet365) | 34% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Ladbrokes) | 28% |
| Lazio win | 2.20 (midnite) | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 49% |
Our model has Sassuolo on 1.27 goals and Lazio on 1.36. It makes 1-1 the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Lazio the slightly more likely winner at 38% to Sassuolo's 34%. Our prediction is Sassuolo 1-1 Lazio.
Our player bet builder pairs Isaksen for 2+ shots, Candé for 1+ fouls and Zaccagni for a shot on target. Zaccagni has hit that shot-on-target mark in four of his last five.