Torino host Como at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino on Tuesday 27 October, with kick-off at 19:45 UK. The hosts are 8th in the table on 13 points. Como are 5th on 17 and have won their last three.
Torino have also won their last three in Serie A, the latest a 3-2 home win over Monza on Friday. They score 1.63 a game, the 9th most, against a Como defence that concedes the 3rd fewest, and our model has Como on around 17 shots to Torino's 11.
Torino lost 0-2 at home to Roma in mid-September, drew 1-1 at Bologna, then beat Udinese 2-1, won 3-0 at Parma and beat Monza 3-2. That is eight goals scored in three wins. Across the season they've got 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats from 8, with 13 scored and 11 conceded, and both teams have scored in 75% of their games, the 3rd highest rate in the division. They are also near the bottom for shots on target with the 4th fewest per game and for corners with the 2nd fewest.
Como are 5th in the Serie A table with 5 wins, 2 draws and a single defeat. They score the 7th most goals per game and concede the 3rd fewest, at 0.88 a game. Their clean sheet rate is 25%, the 7th highest. They average 6.75 shots on target per game, the 2nd most, and win 7.13 corners, also the 2nd most.
Como's 2-0 win over Sassuolo on Saturday followed a 4-1 win over Manchester United in the Champions League on 21 October and a 3-1 win at Fiorentina on 18 October. Before those came a 3-2 defeat at Feyenoord in the Champions League on 14 October and a 0-0 draw with Roma on 11 October.
Torino possible starting lineup:
Perri; Coco, Ismajli, Comuzzo; Mandragora, Belghali, Cacciamani; Fitz-Jim, Vlašić; Simeone, Adams
Como possible starting lineup:
Butez; Kempf, Kaiki, Ramón, Couto; Perrone, Ricci, Caqueret; Baturina, Paz; Douvikas
Nico Paz has had three or more shots in seven straight games, averaging 5 a game over the run, and is 1.36 at Ladbrokes for 3+ again. He has also had two or more shots on target in three in a row, and is 2.50 at Ladbrokes for 2+ again.
Martin Baturina has had a shot in seven consecutive games, averaging 2 a game, and is 1.06 at Ladbrokes for a shot.
For Torino, Giovanni Simeone has had two or more shots in five straight, 2.8 a game, and he's 1.30 at Ladbrokes to make it six. Pietro Comuzzo has made at least one tackle in seven straight games, averaging 2.6 across them.
Anastasios Douvikas has had two or more shots in each of his last five, 3 a game, and is 1.18 at Ladbrokes to do it again.
Como are the favourites at 1.75 with Ladbrokes, and we make them 57% to win. Torino are 5.00 at bet365 and the draw is 3.90 at Ladbrokes. Both teams to score is 1.67 at bet365 and over 2.5 goals is also 1.67 there.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Torino win | 5.00 (bet365) | 20% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Ladbrokes) | 23% |
| Como win | 1.75 (Ladbrokes) | 57% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 57% |
Our model has Como on 1.92 goals and Torino on 1.05. 1-1 is the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make Como the clear favourites to win. 1-2 and 0-2 follow just behind at 10% and 9%. We give Como a 35% chance of a clean sheet and Torino 15%.
For a player bet builder, we pair Simeone for 2+ shots, Douvikas for 2+ shots, Ricci for a foul and Kaiki for a foul. Each of the four has hit that mark in all of his last five games.
Statz prediction: Torino 1-1 Como.