Santos welcome Palmeiras to the Estádio Urbano Caldeira on Wednesday 28 October, with kick-off at 22:30 UK. It sets the league's best defence against the side whose games have seen both teams score more often than anyone else's. Palmeiras sit 2nd on 69 points from 32 games, 23 clear of Santos, and have conceded 22 times. Santos are 8th on 46 points and have conceded 47.
Palmeiras have lost only three league games all season. Santos have won 12, drawn ten and lost ten of their 32.
Palmeiras have been dominant at the back all season. Their goals against average of 0.69 per game is the fewest in the league and they have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their matches, the highest rate in the division. At the other end they score 1.75 per game, the 2nd most. They also take 5.16 shots on target per game, the 7th most, and win the 3rd most corners.
Their last five were three league wins and a Copa Libertadores double header with Fluminense, which they split. They beat Bragantino 2-0 on Saturday, two days after a 1-0 home loss to Fluminense in the Copa Libertadores. Before that came a 2-0 win at Athletico PR, a 2-1 win at Fluminense and a 4-1 home win over Corinthians. In their last ten games they have seven wins, one draw and two defeats.
Santos' games are open: 75% of them have seen both teams score, the highest rate in the competition, and 66% have gone over 2.5 goals, also the highest. They score 1.53 per game, the 6th most, but concede 1.47, the 5th most. Their 3.25 cards per game are the most in the league.
Santos have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five. On Sunday they drew 1-1 with Bahia at home, a week after a 2-1 win at Fluminense. Before that came a 2-1 defeat at Atlético-MG, a 2-2 home draw with Flamengo and a 2-1 win at São Paulo. They scored in each of those five.
Santos possible starting lineup:
Diógenes; Rodinei, Gustavo Henrique, Luan Peres, João Alencar; Álvaro Barreal, Gabriel Bontempo, Benjamín Rollheiser; Everton, Philippe Coutinho, Gabriel Barbosa
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Carlos Miguel; Alexander Barboza, Gustavo Gómez, Murilo; Joaquín Piquerez, Evangelista, Andreas Pereira, Marlon Freitas, Agustín Giay; José Manuel López, Jhon Arias
Gabriel Barbosa has hit the target in eight straight games and averages 2.1 shots on target a game. He is 1.50 at bet365 to make it nine.
José Manuel López has had a shot in 11 straight games for Palmeiras, averaging 2.8 a game, and is 1.06 at bet365 to take another.
Everton has committed a foul in each of his last five, averaging 1.8, and is 1.29 at bet365 to do it again. In midfield, Andreas Pereira has made a tackle in eight straight games, averaging 1.6, and is 1.35 at Ladbrokes to make another.
We back Palmeiras, but only just. They are 2.20 at Ladbrokes to win, Santos are 3.30 at bet365 and the draw is 3.50 at Coral. We make Palmeiras the most likely winner at 40%, with Santos on 31% and the draw on 29%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Santos to win | 3.30 (bet365) | 31% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Coral) | 29% |
| Palmeiras to win | 2.20 (Ladbrokes) | 40% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (Midnite) | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 (bet365) | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (Midnite) | 73% |
Our prediction is Santos 1-1 Palmeiras. The draw is in play, and it is the likeliest single score at 14%, though we make Palmeiras 40% to win against 31% for Santos. We project 1.17 goals for Santos and 1.35 for Palmeiras. Both teams have scored in 75% of Santos's league games, and we put both teams to score at 52%.
Our bet builder takes Barbosa for a shot on target at 1.50 with bet365, Gustavo Gómez for a tackle at 1.25 with Ladbrokes, Alexander Barboza for two or more tackles at 1.62 with bet365 and Everton for a foul at 1.29 with bet365. Barboza has made two or more tackles in each of his last five games, and Gómez has made a tackle in each of his last five.
Agustín Giay has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging 1.6, and is 2.20 at bet365 to take another.