Bahia and São Paulo meet at Arena Fonte Nova in the Campeonato Brasileiro, with kick-off at 00:30 UK on Thursday 29 October. It's a match between two mid-table sides, separated by seven points, and São Paulo have the better defensive record of the two. Bahia sit 7th on 50 points after 32 games, São Paulo 9th on 43.
Bahia have scored 45 and conceded 40, while São Paulo have 37 for and 36 against. São Paulo concede 1.13 goals per game, the 3rd fewest in the league, while Bahia score 1.41, the 7th most.
Bahia have won one of their last five league games. They lost 2-1 at Athletico PR, then 1-0 at Palmeiras, before a 1-0 home win over Mirassol. A 3-0 home defeat to Flamengo followed, and last time out they drew 1-1 at Santos. Before that run they had won four in a row.
Both teams have scored in 63% of Bahia's matches, the 7th highest rate. They keep clean sheets in 28% of games, the 5th highest, and commit the 2nd most fouls per game.
São Paulo are unbeaten in their last three league games: they beat Vitória 2-1 and Vasco 1-0 at home, then drew 1-1 at Mirassol last time out. Before that they lost 2-0 at Cruzeiro and 2-1 at home to Santos.
Only 38% of São Paulo's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd lowest rate in the league. They score 1.16 goals per game, the 8th fewest, and have kept a clean sheet in 22% of games, the 9th highest rate. They average 6.75 corners per game, the most of any side, and give away the 3rd most fouls.
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Ronaldo; Marcos Victor, David Duarte, Marco Moreno, Luciano Juba; Acevedo, Erick, Nestor; Erick Pulga, Veliz, Olivera
São Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Newton, Arboleda, Osorio Messias de Oliveira, Pedro Lima; Bobadilla, Wendell, Djhordney; Lucas Moura, Luciano, Calleri
Alejo Veliz has had at least one shot in 13 straight games for Bahia, averaging 2.8, and bet365 have that at 1.03. Erick Pulga has had a shot in ten in a row, averaging 2.4 per game.
Rodrigo Nestor has had a tackle in five straight games, averaging 2.8, and a shot in seven straight. Ladbrokes have the tackle run at 1.11.
For São Paulo, Djhordney has committed a foul in nine straight games, 1.7 per game, at 1.11 with bet365.
We make Bahia the likelier winners at 45%, and the best price on them is 2.00 with Ladbrokes. Marcos Victor has committed a foul in five straight games and is 1.36 with Midnite. Erick has had a shot in four of his last five, Luciano Juba in four of five, and David Duarte has made a tackle in four of five.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bahia to win | 2.00 (Ladbrokes) | 45% |
| Draw | 3.60 (bet365) | 27% |
| São Paulo to win | 3.80 (bet365) | 28% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 (bet365) | 52% |
We project 1.58 goals for Bahia and 1.19 for São Paulo. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Bahia clearly the likelier winners at 45%, against 28% for São Paulo and 27% for the draw. Our prediction is Bahia 1-1 São Paulo.