Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | Belgium win | 9.5% |
| 1-0 | Belgium win | 8.7% |
| 2-0 | Belgium win | 7.5% |
| 1-2 | Italy win | 7.0% |
| 0-1 | Italy win | 6.5% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 6.0% |
| 3-1 | Belgium win | 5.4% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 5.1% |
| 3-0 | Belgium win | 4.3% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 28% |
| Italy clean sheet | 18% |
The most likely score in Belgium vs Italy is 1-1, a 11% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 2-1 at 9%. The UEFA Nations League game kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 15 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Belgium 1.71 - 1.26 Italy in goals for Belgium vs Italy, with over 2.5 goals 57% likely and both teams to score 59%.
Statz projects 22 players for Belgium vs Italy on Sunday 15 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 19:45 UK time kick-off.
Belgium host Italy at King Power at Den Dreef, Heverlee on 15 November 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Belgium's last five results: W L W L W (3 wins and 2 losses). Italy's last five: L W D W W (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss). In their last 3 meetings, Belgium have won 1, Italy 1, with 1 draw.
Belgium vs Italy kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 15 November 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at King Power at Den Dreef, Heverlee. King Power at Den Dreef holds 10,020 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 19:45.
Belgium vs Italy is being played at King Power at Den Dreef in Heverlee on Sunday 15 November 2026, the home ground of Belgium, which holds 10,020 people. Kick-off is at 19:45 UK time, and the match is part of the UEFA Nations League.
Belgium have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 6, with results reading W L W L W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 2-1 win away to Turkey in the UEFA Nations League on 12 November.
Italy have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 6, with results reading L W D W W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 3-1 win at home to France in the UEFA Nations League on 12 November.
Across the last 3 meetings Belgium have won 1, Italy have won 1 and 1 was drawn, with Belgium scoring 4 goals to Italy's 3. The most recent was Italy 0-2 Belgium on 25 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Romelu Lukaku leads Belgium with 4 goals across their last 10 games, 0.4 a game, the most of any Belgium player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Belgium player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Pio Esposito leads Italy with 7 goals across their last 10 games, 0.7 a game, the most of any Italy player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Italy player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Espen Eskås is the referee for Belgium vs Italy, averaging 27.5 fouls and 5.5 yellow cards per game across 4 games this season. That is 0.00 red cards a game, and the referee card on this page sets the record beside both teams' fouls and cards.
Statz predicts Belgium vs Italy with 11 starters a side: Belgium line up 4-3-3 and Italy 4-3-3, ahead of the 19:45 UK time kick-off on Sunday 15 November 2026. The predicted XIs are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Belgium the favourite with a 48% chance of winning, against 28% for Italy and 24% for the draw. Projected goals are Belgium 1.7 - 1.3 Italy.
The most likely score in Belgium vs Italy is 1-1, a draw, at 11%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 59% likely and over 2.5 goals 57%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Belgium vs Italy, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | UEFA Nations League | Italy vs Belgium | 0-2 |
| 14 Nov 2024 | UEFA Nations League | Belgium vs Italy | 0-1 |
| 10 Oct 2024 | UEFA Nations League | Italy vs Belgium | 2-2 |
Statz's projection model expects Belgium 1.7 - 1.3 Italy in goals. It gives Belgium a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Italy 28%. Both teams to score is 59% likely, over 1.5 goals 80% and over 2.5 goals 57%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%), 2-0 (7%), 1-2 (7%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 11% |
| 2-1 | Belgium win | 9% |
| 1-0 | Belgium win | 9% |
| 2-0 | Belgium win | 7% |
| 1-2 | Italy win | 7% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Belgium vs Italy, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Belgium | Fouls committed | Italy | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Raskin | 18 | A. Bastoni | 13 |
| 2 | Y. Tielemans | 13 | P. Esposito | 11 |
| 3 | T. Castagne | 10 | S. Tonali | 8 |
| 4 | B. Mechele | 9 | M. Locatelli | 7 |
| 5 | M. Cuyper | 9 | M. Retegui | 6 |
| # | Belgium | Shots | Italy | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Bruyne | 30 | P. Esposito | 26 |
| 2 | D. Lukébakio | 15 | M. Kean | 15 |
| 3 | L. Trossard | 14 | S. Tonali | 10 |
| 4 | M. Cuyper | 13 | D. Frattesi | 8 |
| 5 | Y. Tielemans | 13 | A. Bastoni | 7 |
| # | Belgium | Shots on target | Italy | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Bruyne | 11 | P. Esposito | 16 |
| 2 | C. Ketelaere | 10 | M. Kean | 7 |
| 3 | M. Cuyper | 7 | M. Kayode | 3 |
| 4 | D. Lukébakio | 7 | F. Dimarco | 2 |
| 5 | R. Lukaku | 5 | M. Retegui | 2 |
| # | Belgium | Goals | Italy | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Lukaku | 4 | P. Esposito | 7 |
| 2 | C. Ketelaere | 4 | M. Kean | 2 |
| 3 | K. Bruyne | 4 | D. Frattesi | 2 |
| 4 | Y. Tielemans | 2 | A. Bastoni | 2 |
| 5 | L. Trossard | 2 | S. Tonali | 1 |
| # | Belgium | Yellow cards | Italy | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Bruyne | 3 | A. Bastoni | 4 |
| 2 | R. Lukaku | 2 | P. Esposito | 2 |
| 3 | R. Lavia | 2 | G. Donnarumma | 2 |
| 4 | Y. Tielemans | 2 | D. Frattesi | 2 |
| 5 | D. Moreira | 2 | N. Barella | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Belgium vs Italy: Brandon Mechele 1+ tackles (100% hit rate at 1.20); Maxim De Cuyper 1+ tackles (100% hit rate at 1.25); Charles De Ketelaere 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.40). Combined odds 1.76 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.6 | 22 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1.2 | 30 of 54 |
| Shots | 13 | 28 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 5.6 | 11 of 54 |
| Fouls | 11.4 | 31 of 54 |
| Tackles | 16.6 | 11 of 54 |
| Passes | 432.4 | 37 of 54 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 41 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.2 | 10 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1.2 | 29 of 54 |
| Shots | 15 | 16 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 5.4 | 12 of 54 |
| Fouls | 12.8 | 19 of 54 |
| Tackles | 16 | 17 of 54 |
| Passes | 448.8 | 30 of 54 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 39 of 54 |