Updated 13 November 2026.
Belgium host Italy at the Stade Roi Baudouin on Sunday 15 November, kick-off 19:45 UK, in the UEFA Nations League. Italy lead their League A group on 10 points, with Belgium 3rd on 9, and the two met in the opening round on 25 September, when Belgium won 2-0 away to Italy.
Belgium are 3rd in the group on 9 points from five, with three wins and two defeats and a goal difference of +2. They come in after a 2-1 win away to Turkey on Thursday, which followed a 4-1 defeat in France on 5 October. Before that came a 3-0 home win over Turkey and, earlier, a 1-0 home loss to France. They average 5.6 shots on target a game, the 12th most in the competition, and have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Italy lead their League A group on 10 points, with three wins, a draw and one defeat and 11 goals scored. They beat France 3-1 at home on Thursday, after a 3-1 win over Turkey, a 1-1 draw in France and a 4-1 win in Turkey. They average 2.2 goals a game, the 7th most in the competition, and both teams have scored in 80% of their matches, the 5th highest rate. Italy have not kept a clean sheet in the competition.
Belgium's goals record is 8 scored and 6 conceded in five games, and over 2.5 goals has landed in three of those five and in three of Italy's.
Belgium possible starting lineup:
Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; De Bruyne, Raskin, Tielemans; Moreira, De Ketelaere, Doku
Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Calafiori, Bastoni, Scalvini, Kayode; Barella, Tonali, Doumbia; Cambiaghi, Esposito, Esposito
Kevin De Bruyne has had at least three shots in four straight games, averaging 3.5 a game. De Bruyne is 1.65 at Ladbrokes to make it five. He has also made a tackle in each of his last four games, and that is 1.50 at bet365.
Youri Tielemans has committed a foul in four in a row and has made two or more tackles in three straight. Tielemans is 1.30 at bet365 for a foul and 1.62 for two tackles.
Charles De Ketelaere has had a shot on target in four of his last five and averages 1.2. He is 1.36 at bet365 to have one again.
Brandon Mechele has made a tackle in five straight games, averaging 1.8 a game, and is 1.20 at bet365 for another. Maxim De Cuyper has made a tackle in four straight games, averaging 1.5 a game, and is 1.25 at bet365.
For Italy, Riccardo Calafiori has made two or more tackles in three in a row, averaging 2.3, and Calafiori is 1.67 at bet365 to do it again. Nicolò Cambiaghi has committed a foul in three straight games, averaging 2 a game, and is 1.44 at bet365 for another. Alessandro Bastoni has made a tackle in three straight games, averaging 2 a game, and is 1.20.
We make Belgium the favourite at 49%, with Italy on 27% and the draw on 24%, and bet365 have Belgium at 2.15.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium to win | 2.15 (bet365) | 49% |
| Draw | 3.90 (bet365) | 24% |
| Italy to win | 3.10 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 (Ladbrokes) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (Midnite) | 79% |
We predict Belgium 1-1 Italy. It is the likeliest single score at 11%, though we make a Belgium win the likeliest result overall at 49%, with 2-1 and 1-0 the next likeliest scores. We project Belgium at 1.73 goals to Italy's 1.21, and both teams to score at 58%.
Belgium vs Italy in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League League A kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 15 November 2026 at the Stade Roi Baudouin. Italy lead their group on 10 points from 5 games, Belgium are 3rd on 9, and we make Belgium 49% to win.
We predict 1-1 for Belgium vs Italy in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, the likeliest single score at 11%. We make a Belgium win the likeliest result overall at 49%, ahead of Italy at 27% and the draw at 24%.
Belgium are favourites for the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League clash with Italy, and we give them a 49% chance of winning. bet365 offer 2.15 on a Belgium win and have the draw at 3.90, and Ladbrokes have Italy at 3.10.
We give both teams to score a 58% chance in Belgium vs Italy in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, with Ladbrokes at 1.55. Both teams have scored in 4 of Italy's 5 games this campaign (80%) and in 2 of Belgium's 5 (40%).
Italy lead their League A group in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League on 10 points from 5 games, while Belgium are 3rd on 9 points after 3 wins and 2 defeats. Italy have scored 11 goals to Belgium's 8.
Kevin De Bruyne has had 3+ shots in 4 straight games for Belgium in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, averaging 3.5 a game. He is 1.65 at Ladbrokes for 3+ shots in the Italy game.
Predicted lineups for Belgium vs Italy in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League on Sunday 15 November 2026: Belgium may start Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; De Bruyne, Raskin, Tielemans; Moreira, De Ketelaere, Doku. Italy may start Donnarumma; Calafiori, Bastoni, Scalvini, Kayode; Barella, Tonali, Doumbia; Cambiaghi, Esposito, Esposito.