No, Toluca have taken 21 points over 12 Liga MX games in 2026/2027, within 1.47 of the 22.47 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Toluca create 1.96 expected goals (xG) per game over 12 Liga MX games in 2026/2027, 23.52 in all, and have scored 26 goals from those chances, 2.48 more than that xG would expect.
Toluca allow 1.14 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 12 Liga MX games in 2026/2027, 13.68 in all, and have conceded 16 goals from those chances, 2.32 more than that xGA would expect.
Paulinho has the most expected goals (xG) for Toluca over 12 Liga MX games in 2026/2027, 0.48 xG in 6 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Federico Viñas is next with 0.31 xG.
Toluca's results and their chances agree, within 1.5 points of xPts over 12 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 12 | 23.52 | 26 | +2.48 | 13.68 | 16 | -2.32 | 22.47 | 21 | -1.47 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 20.35 | 23 | +2.65 | 11.83 | 14 | -2.17 | 18.81 | 18 | -0.81 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 10.45 | 9 | -1.45 | 7.03 | 10 | -2.97 | 9.02 | 5 | -4.02 |
| Home | 6 | 13.79 | 16 | +2.21 | 6.12 | 9 | -2.88 | 12.72 | 10 | -2.72 |
| Away | 6 | 9.73 | 10 | +0.27 | 7.56 | 7 | +0.56 | 9.75 | 11 | +1.25 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Liga MX | Atlético San Luis (H) | 1-1 | 2.56 | 1.34 | 2.09 | 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | Liga MX | Tigres UANL (A) | 3-2 | 1.48 | 1.83 | 1.17 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | Liga MX | Cruz Azul (A) | 3-3 | 2.26 | 1.37 | 1.92 | 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | Liga MX | Santos Laguna (H) | 2-3 | 2.78 | 1.95 | 1.84 | 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | Liga MX | Puebla (A) | 0-1 | 1.37 | 0.54 | 2.00 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Liga MX | Atlas (H) | 5-2 | 2.09 | 0.72 | 2.27 | 3 | W |
| 31 Aug | Liga MX | Juárez (H) | 4-0 | 3.04 | 0.24 | 2.80 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | Liga MX | Querétaro (A) | 1-2 | 1.56 | 1.81 | 1.23 | 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | Liga MX | Atlante (A) | 0-0 | 1.02 | 0.78 | 1.53 | 1 | W |
| 3 Aug | Liga MX | Necaxa (H) | 3-1 | 2.19 | 1.25 | 1.96 | 3 | W |
| 22 Jul | Liga MX | Pumas UNAM (H) | 1-2 | 1.13 | 0.62 | 1.76 | 0 | W |
| 19 Jul | Liga MX | Guadalajara (A) | 0-2 | 2.04 | 1.23 | 1.90 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Viñas | attacker | 9 | 554 | 0.31 | 5 | +4.69 | 0.05 |
| Alexis Vega | attacker | 10 | 709 | 0.00 | 4 | +4.00 | 0.00 |
| Helinho | attacker | 11 | 649 | 0.08 | 3 | +2.92 | 0.01 |
| Paulinho | attacker | 6 | 485 | 0.48 | 3 | +2.52 | 0.09 |
| Jesús Angulo | midfielder | 11 | 554 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Everardo del Villar | defender | 9 | 676 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Érick Gabriel Gutiérrez Galaviz | midfielder | 6 | 378 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge DÃaz | midfielder | 11 | 529 | 0.03 | 1 | +0.97 | 0.01 |
| Jesús Gallardo | defender | 9 | 698 | 0.05 | 1 | +0.95 | 0.01 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlas | 12 | 17.5 | 19 | 20.4 | 18 | 14.8 | 21 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Querétaro | 11 | 17.5 | 15 | 19.2 | 13 | 14.6 | 20 | +5.4 |
| 3 | América | 11 | 21.5 | 27 | 14.9 | 14 | 19.3 | 24 | +4.7 |
| 4 | Puebla | 12 | 10.9 | 12 | 18.8 | 13 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 5 | Pumas UNAM | 12 | 13.7 | 19 | 18.3 | 20 | 13.7 | 16 | +2.3 |
| 6 | León | 12 | 17.8 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16.5 | 18 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Guadalajara | 12 | 18.3 | 19 | 13.6 | 12 | 19.5 | 20 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 23.7 | 27 | 17 | 21 | 20.8 | 20 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 11 | 17.3 | 19 | 13.2 | 16 | 17.9 | 17 | -0.9 |
| 10 | Atlético San Luis | 12 | 14.7 | 16 | 19.4 | 21 | 14 | 13 | -1 |
| 11 | Toluca | 12 | 23.5 | 26 | 13.7 | 16 | 22.5 | 21 | -1.5 |
| 12 | Pachuca | 12 | 16.8 | 19 | 20.9 | 16 | 14.5 | 13 | -1.5 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 21 | 17 | 18.3 | 16 | 17.6 | 16 | -1.6 |
| 14 | Tijuana | 11 | 19.3 | 15 | 14.5 | 14 | 18.2 | 16 | -2.2 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 12 | 18.4 | 14 | 17.4 | 16 | 16.9 | 14 | -2.9 |
| 16 | Atlante | 12 | 14.6 | 13 | 18.1 | 19 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 17 | Juárez | 12 | 11.5 | 8 | 23.6 | 31 | 10.1 | 4 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Necaxa | 12 | 21 | 15 | 19.8 | 25 | 17.3 | 9 | -8.3 |